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League Two Consequences


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23 minutes ago, deyres42 said:

Throwing it back a bit, I make it that 20 of the last 40 clubs relegated have made it back up.

Have any of those gone back down again?

I'm thinking Bury and Chesterfield iniitally. northampton might to

Quite a few dropped further.

Chesterfield, Orient, Tranmere, Hartlepool, Dagenham, Stockport, Hereford.

 

We'll get an inkling when the release list is announced and the first few players are signed, whichever division we are in.

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8 minutes ago, Wardie said:

I realise that it's unworkable, because no players would accept it but contracts should be structured to include a salary decrease in the case of a relegation. Players likely expect more pay with a promoted club, the opposite should be true...in an ideal world. I would like to think that the threat hanging over their heads would prompt more effort and determination.

 

As I said, wishful thinking as the reality would probably cause more transfer complications than it is worth.

I thought that was not uncommon. Maybe not the top players, as they want the guarantee as part of being signed, but I think lower down it might.

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17 minutes ago, Chris Richard said:

I've been contemplating this over the course of today. If we go down our league attendances for next year will depend on what signings we make over summer and how well said team does in league 2. Naturally, I would think gates will drop slightly after the initial wave of pissed offness hits but if we become successful ie pushing for playoffs or automatic, people will come back and I would say over time, if we are in this position, we'd probably get improved attendances as people want to see Oldham winning games. After so many years of seeing us struggle, people, including myself would be glad of actually seeing a battle at the right end of the table. It'd be interesting to see if attendance figures would be better than in league 1 if we go down but do well. 

It could of course go the other way and we don't sign the right players and we fall away. The said wave off pissed offness will increase leaving more scope for further disgruntled fans to not return. 

In essence, it all depends on what happens after the curtain closes on this season and what occurs over close season. It will be a test of AL' s credentials and desire if we do go down. Will he stump up for a squad that someone( *If not RW) can work with to build us back up? It's going to be a very frustrating and difficult wait over the next few months. Having said that, all this could be irrelevant and we will be building for league 1. Either way a very very big few months in our history. 

Lemsagam, by his own admission, is not mega-wealthy. Has he clearly indicated a plan for the club? I'm not sure but whatever his plans are or were, I'm pretty certain relegation was not part of it. Personally, I don't see much difference between struggling at the wrong end of the table, as Latics have been doing for several years and maybe pushing at the top of the next league down. There may be a definitive line drawn in the sand between the two leagues but to me the quality in football is riddled with ambiguity.

Fans are certainly fickle.

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As Harry alludes to, if we/when go down. The hope is, it could be the making of us, and watching a promotion push would be far more enjoyable that the shite we’ve watched for the last 7/8 years. Plus, I actually think it would add to our fanbase, as we would finally turn up expecting to win. 

 

That could all be very wishful thinking though. . . 

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2 minutes ago, Wardie said:

Lemsagam, by his own admission, is not mega-wealthy. Has he clearly indicated a plan for the club? I'm not sure but whatever his plans are or were, I'm pretty certain relegation was not part of it. Personally, I don't see much difference between struggling at the wrong end of the table, has Latics have been doing for several years and maybe pushing at the top of the next league down. There may be a definitive line drawn in the sand between the two leagues but to me the quality in football is riddled with ambiguity.

Fans are certainly fickle.

Acknowledged that AL has said he's not loaded. I just hope he has something to give us a competative edge next year regardless of what division. We've all seen that the wave of AL freebie players hasn't exactly been fruitful. What im alluding to is that we need to be signing players that are tried and tested in the EFL. If he has the means to sign some decent league standard players we will be ok.  

In my opinion there is a difference between struggling consistently in a division or doing well in one below. I feel that seeing your side play well breeds excitement and interest in what's happening. For me that beats being disappointed that we were promised the earth, yet struggled and play limited football and finish 17th (or lower as the case may be.) If that means doing well in league 2 than seeing us pumped by Southend in League 1, so be it. Sometimes the snake needs to shed it's skin to look healthy again. 

Or course, my argument is hinged on;

1) Being relegated

2) Actually doing well in league 2 when there.

(I realise it's a fragile lament!) 

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Obviously I am missing the point of the debate here but what will happen to OAFC long term if we go down is a complete unknown.

 

there are three 'plausible' scenarios.

 

Number 1. I don't buy for a second that we will go in to admin, do a stockport etc. I just can't see a relegation making that much difference to the extent that the club collapses having survived on a shoe string for twenty years.

 

Number 2. The prospect of becoming a lower half league 2 club, with league 2 facilities, infrastructure, finances, crowds etc for years to come is very real. Whether that's really any worse than our current existence I am not sure. 

 

Number 3. It galvanises the club, we get a winning mentality back and can actually compete. 

 

Not for a second saying 3 will happen but I don't think number 1 will. 2 is a very real prospect which i think an early poster on this topic pointed out.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Londonboy said:

We'd also lose circa 60-80k per game in revenue from the likes of Sunderland, Bolton, Birmingham, Bradford, Pompey etc. 

Our big games would be Bury and Coventry!!

There’s at least a dozen clubs in league two who would bring barely a hundred fans too in what is a league dominated by southern clubs.

The playing budget would take a massive hit, unless AL was prepared to do what Donny did last season and try to maintain status quo by keeping a similar budget.

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2 hours ago, OldHallam said:

Does that suggest its getting harder then? 

Not sure.

 

I might be wrong but there does seem to be have been a levelling of the leagues in recent seasons as in most clubs are at the level you would expect to find them at.

 

To win a promotion you certainly need to have all your ducks in a row or have fortunes to spend, preferably both.

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Not all at suggesting the loss

of income is fully offset. What i am saying is that we need to bear in mind that it costs a lot less money to be competitive in league 2 than league 1. 

 

Also Chesterfield, Colchester and the like will most likely come back up at some point. They might be at a low point now but they are well placed to be able to compete next season and beyond.

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5 minutes ago, Andy b said:

Not all at suggesting the loss

of income is fully offset. What i am saying is that we need to bear in mind that it costs a lot less money to be competitive in league 2 than league 1. 

 

 

League One or League Two you'd also like to think there'd be at least an extra few hundred grand being put in with Abdallah at the helm rather than Corney..... 

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A team winning in League 2 would attract 5000 home fans, that would offset revenue from the handful of large away followings that we currently attract in this League, for me relegation should be seen as an opportunity,  it offers a new dynamic and regardless of what the doom and gloomers are predicting on here I just can't see us doing a Chesterfield. 

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27 minutes ago, yarddog73 said:

A team winning in League 2 would attract 5000 home fans, that would offset revenue from the handful of large away followings that we currently attract in this League, for me relegation should be seen as an opportunity,  it offers a new dynamic and regardless of what the doom and gloomers are predicting on here I just can't see us doing a Chesterfield. 

Be interesting to see what the chesterfield fans were saying when they were relegated 73 ? Genuinely would like to see. 

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1 hour ago, OldHallam said:

I'm far from a doom and gloomer but old enough to remember how shite Div 2 can be. I can also recall a very similar lot of enthusiasm when we walloped Charlton first game back down in the Championship equivalent. That hasnt gone so well since then. Win next game and we might never know however a drop to Div 2 is a lottery and not a golden opportunity to put years of failings right. Budget is everything and a bit of luck.  

The day we stop harping back to this and that is the day we will probably start making some progress, do you really think Accrington started this season with a losers mentality worrying about the season ahead? Of course they didn't and its these sorts of attitudes that will drag us down, if we went down we would probably have a top six budget on top of top six crowds with an away support many teams at lower league level are envious of, I would see relegation as an opportunity and I don't buy in to the idea Corney has brainwashed into our fanbase that 17th is an achievement and relegation a disaster, as with all things in life you sometimes have to go back before you can grow again, surely thats better than just stagnating?.

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Yes remember charlton well. I also remember finding it amusing that we would be playing lowly teams such as Reading! 

 

Good and strong leadership at the very top of the club will be key to any prospects of stabilising the club and pushing forwards, be it from a base line of league 1 or 2. Will test AL in that regard. 

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9 hours ago, yarddog73 said:

A team winning in League 2 would attract 5000 home fans, that would offset revenue from the handful of large away followings that we currently attract in this League, for me relegation should be seen as an opportunity,  it offers a new dynamic and regardless of what the doom and gloomers are predicting on here I just can't see us doing a Chesterfield. 

 

:lol:

 

People said this when we were relegated to this division in 1997.

 

Why hasn't someone, at some point over the last couple of decades, seen survival in this division as an "opportunity", turned us into a winning League One side getting 5,000 fans AND having the large away following??

 

I'm as optimistic as most, but anyone who thinks relegation is an opportunity is really clutching at straws.  We've had 22 "opportunities" in this league yet haven't taken a single one.  New owner or otherwise, there is absolutely no indication that relegation could be a good thing.

 

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1 minute ago, yarddog73 said:

The day we stop harping back to this and that is the day we will probably start making some progress, do you really think Accrington started this season with a losers mentality worrying about the season ahead? Of course they didn't and its these sorts of attitudes that will drag us down, if we went down we would probably have a top six budget on top of top six crowds with an away support many teams at lower league level are envious of, I would see relegation as an opportunity and I don't buy in to the idea Corney has brainwashed into our fanbase that 17th is an achievement and relegation a disaster, as with all things in life you sometimes have to go back before you can grow again, surely thats better than just stagnating?.

Agree with this generally though I would

point out that our home crowds would be bottom six in league 2. 

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What's the current ST number sold?  

 

If we lose Saturday and relegation looks more like then I suspect the early bird will be extended further.

 

c2500 ST holders is, I would say, our hardcore fan base.  Fans who will buy tickets regardless of which division we're in.  Those fans want to watch our team as opposed to the opposition.  Also looking at League 2, a lot of the teams down there are teams we've played at League 1 over the years anyway; Swindon, Port Vale, Coventry/Notts County (one or both will stay down), Mansfield, Colchester.  Even a couple of coast trips to Morecambe and Grimsby.

 

Of course I want to stay up but will relegation impact us too much?  After four or five (arguably) lean seasons on the playing budget, will cutting our cloth accordingly affect us next season?  There's still uncertainty over AL's wealth but suggestion is that he has more than Corney plus he's focussed on the playing side rather than stadium etc.  

 

We'll obviously lose the likes of Doyle, Bryan but whoever comes in to replace Wellens will wheel and deal - I'd start by securing someone like the Cowley brothers who have experience and a great track record to scour non-league, sign some decent potential and play as a team rather than the odd diamond in the rough.

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10 minutes ago, Andy b said:

Crewe's average is 14th highest at 3,800. We won't beat that. 

 

Not bottom 6 but defo bottom half.

 

definatley not top 6.

 

Based on home attendances we'd be 12th in League 2 at average 4406.  

 

Be interesting to see home support/ST sales of League 2 v Oldham.  I'd say 2500-3000 so with 10-15% away, that'll be c3000 home gates?

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