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Thoughts on the new season


Thoughts on the new season  

141 members have voted

  1. 1. How excited are you for the new season

    • Buzzing. Can't wait
      44
    • I needed a break but I'm glad the football is back.
      69
    • Meh, is it that time again?
      27
  2. 2. How do you think we will do this year?

    • Top 3, challenging for title
      15
    • Play offs
      38
    • Failed play off push
      25
    • Mid table obscurity
      44
    • 17th as ever, just a different league
      13
    • Down down deeper and down
      5


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So it's nearly upon us, and we have seen how the club has taken shape this summer. New faces on and off the pitch.

 

I've linked the 2 questions together because ultimately I think it will lead to the same debate.

 

Personally I'm not feeling this season. I don't think we will push for the top three and I can't see a sustained play off push either. I just don't get where some of the confidence is coming from.

 

Maybe it's a hang over from last year, but I'm struggling to get excited about this season. It'll probably all change once a ball has been kicked but if we finish top half I Think We would be doing well. 

 

 

Edited by philliggi
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Can't deny it, I've missed it and it can't come soon enough for me. Latics has been in my blood for coming up to 69 years and you can't shake it off that easily. As for where we'll finish, I have a feeling we might make the play-offs. Just. But it will be a last game scramble. At Northampton. Poetic justice.

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7 minutes ago, Bristolatic said:

Can't deny it, I've missed it and it can't come soon enough for me. Latics has been in my blood for coming up to 69 years and you can't shake it off that easily. As for where we'll finish, I have a feeling we might make the play-offs. Just. But it will be a last game scramble. At Northampton. Poetic justice.

 

Watching Northampton playing against Manchester United under 23s tonight, can't work out if Northampton are good or United are poor.

Edited by BP1960
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31 minutes ago, Bristolatic said:

Can't deny it, I've missed it and it can't come soon enough for me. Latics has been in my blood for coming up to 69 years and you can't shake it off that easily. As for where we'll finish, I have a feeling we might make the play-offs. Just. But it will be a last game scramble. At Northampton. Poetic justice.

69 years! How old are u?

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2 hours ago, latics22 said:

69 years! How old are u?

I'll be 74 in September, but about early 20s in my head.

 

And it's actually nearly 68 years, not 69.

Edited by Bristolatic
Loses grasp of maths in old age!
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37 minutes ago, L1onheartNew said:

Well, everyone except us is playing for runners up downwards.

 

#WTL

We shouldn’t even have to play this season they should just award us the trophy first game of the season! In fact we should start in league 1, automatic swap with Rochdale. Save the rigmarole.

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46 minutes ago, latics22 said:

We shouldn’t even have to play this season they should just award us the trophy first game of the season! In fact we should start in league 1, automatic swap with Rochdale. Save the rigmarole.

 

Naaa. We needed a break from League 1. We were getting stale...

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Actually think it's a pretty tricky start.

 

Franchise will probably be one of the front runners, followed by Forest Green and Macclesfield who, however you want to paint it, we should be beating.

 

No win from those three and it'll be pretty grim..

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I am just coming out of my depression of relegation. To help me decide to recover or slash my wrists again. I thought I would look at a few facts (Oh! sorry this is a OAFC fans website…. FACTS!) of relegated teams from League 1.

 

I looked at all the League 1 (or equivalent) relegations over the time Oldham were in L1 (21 years for those that may have forgotten), to review the chances of return to L1 or oblivion. Below are the results of my review.

 

A) There has been 84 relegations (4x21)

 

B) There has been 54 clubs relegated during that period. ie some clubs relegated multiple times.

 

C) Of the 84 relegations, 53 of them returned to L1 (63%)

 

D) Of the 84 relegations, 20 dropped into non league (24%)

 

E) Of the 20 that dropped to non league, 13 of them returned to to L2 (65%)

 

F) 5 of the relegated clubs (9%) have since gone on to reach the premiership (Blackpool, Bournemouth, Cardiff, Huddersfield and Swansea)

 

G) 12 of the relegated clubs (23%) have since gone on to reach the championship (the 5 above plus Brentford, Luton, MKD, Peterbro, Plymouth, Rotherham and Scunthorpe)

 

I looked more closely at C above to find how long it took to return to L1

 

c1) 20 of the 84 relegations returned to L1 after 1 year in L2. (Blackpool x2, Bournemouth, Brentford, Cardiff, Chesterfield, Coventry, Doncaster, Gillingham, Hartlepool, Huddersfield, Luton, Northampton, Scunthorpe, Shrewsbury, Swindon x2, Walsall, Wrexham and Wycombe)

 

c2) 6 returned to L1 after 2 years. (Bournemouth, Brentford, Bury, Chesterfield, MKD and Rochdale)

 

c3) 6 returned to L1 after 3 years. (Cheltenham, Crewe, Gillingham, Northampton, Peterbro and Stockport)

 

c4) 4 returned to L1 after 4 years. (Chesterfield, Plymouth, Portsmouth and Swansea)

 

c5) 5 returned to L1 after 5 years. (Bristol R, Port Vale, Scunthorpe, Southend and Wycombe)

 

c6) 5 returned to L1 after 6 years. (Bradford, Bristol R, Plymouth, Rotherham and Wycombe)

 

c7) 3 returned to L1 after 7 years. (Northampton, Notts C and Southend)

 

c8)  1 returned to L1 after 8 years (Carlisle)

 

c9)  1 returned to L1 after 9 years (Bury)

 

c10)  1 returned to L1 after 10 years (Luton)

 

c11)  1 returned to L1 after 15 years (Oxford)

 

I also reviewed D above to find how long it took a L1 relegated club to fall into non league

 

d1) 4 of the 84 relegations dropped to non league after 1 year in L2. (Chesterfield, Luton, Stockport and Tranmere)

 

d2) 3 dropped to non league after 2 years. (Leyton O, Rushton & Diamonds and Torquay)

 

d3) 4 dropped to non league after 3 years. (Bristol R, Cambridge, Hereford and Wrexham)

 

d4) 2 dropped to non league after 4 years. (Hartlepool and York)

 

d5) 3 dropped to non league after 5 years. (Dagenham & Redbridge, Mansfield and Oxford)

 

d6) 3 dropped to non league after 6 years. (Carlisle, Cheltenham and Grimsby)

 

d7) 1 dropped to non league after 13 years. (Macclesfield)

 

e1) Of the 20 that dropped to non league. The 7 that have never returned to L2 are: Hartlepool, Dagenham & Redbridge, Hereford, Leyton O, Rushton & Diamonds, Stockport and Wrexham.

 

e2) The 13 that returned from non league were: Bristol R, Cambridge, Carlisle, Cheltenham, Grimsby, Lincoln, Luton, Macclesfield, Mansfield, Oxford, Torquay, Tranmere and York..

 

Note. Wycombe has been relegated 3 times and promoted 3 times whilst Oldham were in L1. Whilst Luton has dropped all the way to non league and returned to L1 in that time.

 

I did not stop there. I then looked at all the League 1 relegations in 21st position over the same period. Again looking at chances of return or oblivion. Below are the results.

 

H) There has been 21 relegations

 

I) There has been 20 clubs relegated during that period (Bournemouth relegated twice in 21st position)

 

J) Of the 21 relegations, 14 returned to L1 (67%)

 

K) Of the 21 relegations, 5 dropped into non league (24%)

 

L) Of the 5 that dropped to non league, 4 of them returned to to L2 (80%) (Grimsby, Tranmere, Torquay and York)

 

M) Of the 4 that returned to L2, 2 have returned to non league (Torquay and York).

 

I looked more closely at H above to find how long it took to return to L1

 

j1) 6 of the 21 relegations returned to L1 after 1 year in L2. (Bournemouth, Brentford, Cardiff, Doncaster, Hartlepool and Scunthorpe)

 

j2) 2 returned to L1 after 2 years. (Bournemouth and MKD)

 

j3) 2 returned to L1 after 3 years. (Cheltenham and Gillingham)

 

j4) 1 returned to L1 after 4 years. (Chesterfield)

 

j5) 2 returned to L1 after 6 years. (Bristol R and Wycombe)

 

j6) 1 returned to L1 after 7 years. (Northampton)

 

I also reviewed I above to find how long it took a L1 21st positioned relegated club to fall into non league

 

k1) 1 of the 21 relegations dropped to non league after 1 year in L2. (Tranmere)

 

k1) 1 dropped to non league e after 2 years in L2. (Torquay)

 

k2) 2 dropped to non league after 5 years. (Dagenham & Redbridge and York)

 

k3) 1 dropped to non league after 6 years. (Grimsby)

 

 

So what conclusion have I come too?

The Latics have a better chance of being promoted than relegated from L2, but promotion needs to be done within 6 years at the most or any momentum is lost.

If slipping into non league is going to happen, it is most likely to happen in the first 6 years, but the probability is small.

There is very little difference in results between clubs finishing 21st or in the bottom 4.

 

My thoughts are that we will have a better season than the past 5, and we will spend more time in the top half than bottom half, finishing in the top half.

So I will let the wounds on my wrists heal, but renewing my ifollow subscription may be a bridge too far (I have a week to change my mind).

 

I hope the Happy Clappers and the Negative Nellies can get something out of this, so as to come to their premeditated conclusion.

 

Oh! I nearly forget the Spelling & Grammar police. I sure they well do well out of this also.

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Have to admit, this is the most pessimistic I’ve felt going into a new season despite it being the league below.

 

Granted you need to get rid of the bad apples in Gerrard and Byrne.  However if there’s no takers for either, can we afford to have then sitting in the youths?  Byrne will rip up this league so it’s time for him, FB and AL to clear their differences for the sake of this club.  Gerrard cared and played through injury last season.  He’s emotive, opinionated and vocal but if most of what happened last season is true then you can’t blame him for taking a stand.  Some our silent protesters, others aren’t.  It’s how you manage people and it works both ways - employees and hierarchy.

 

Going onto the rest of the team - we’ve had to trim the wage bill but offloading most in summer then Holloway and Davies, surely we now have funds to strengthen?  If not then serious questions need asking about AL’s worth and where thus substantial investment has disappeared to.  You don’t get rid of Holloway and Davies without replacing with a similar or better calibre, which is what has happened to us now.. scrabbling around to find a striker let alone one or two extra.

 

Under SC we were always operating under an uncompetitive playing budget.  When AL arrived he doubled this to a more competitive budget but this season surely we must be back down or lower than we were before he arrived.  I thought this bloke was taking us forward?  Ok he’s admitted he’s not a billionaire but what is he?  Was this £3m the full extent of his wealth?  A gamble made that has backfired and relegation wasn’t expected.  He’s balancing the books due to unaccounted debts, which I still question the thoroughness of his due dilligence.

 

Well Doyle is off the Bradford it seems so hopefully Big Joe being there yesterday and soon to take DoF at Wigan enables us to secure a loan or two from Wigan.  I’m hoping too the FB can magic a loan striker or two from his connections or AL from his extensive scouting and agency work.  Missilou and Branger-Egon appear to be very promising finds - we need AL to repeat this up front now.

 

Going to be a big week this coming week and then up to the close of the window. The media have us down as relegation fodder, our odds have dropped from 22/1 to 11/1 (or even 8/1) for relegation too.  

 

Hopefully AL makes a statement of intent ahead of Saturday via further signings and then an actual statement reiterating his ambitions.  I think we need it after the soap opera played out over this summer.

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9 minutes ago, Midsblue said:

Have to admit, this is the most pessimistic I’ve felt going into a new season despite it being the league below.

 

Granted you need to get rid of the bad apples in Gerrard and Byrne.  However if there’s no takers for either, can we afford to have then sitting in the youths?  Byrne will rip up this league so it’s time for him, FB and AL to clear their differences for the sake of this club.  Gerrard cared and played through injury last season.  He’s emotive, opinionated and vocal but if most of what happened last season is true then you can’t blame him for taking a stand.  Some our silent protesters, others aren’t.  It’s how you manage people and it works both ways - employees and hierarchy.

 

Going onto the rest of the team - we’ve had to trim the wage bill but offloading most in summer then Holloway and Davies, surely we now have funds to strengthen?  If not then serious questions need asking about AL’s worth and where thus substantial investment has disappeared to.  You don’t get rid of Holloway and Davies without replacing with a similar or better calibre, which is what has happened to us now.. scrabbling around to find a striker let alone one or two extra.

 

Under SC we were always operating under an uncompetitive playing budget.  When AL arrived he doubled this to a more competitive budget but this season surely we must be back down or lower than we were before he arrived.  I thought this bloke was taking us forward?  Ok he’s admitted he’s not a billionaire but what is he?  Was this £3m the full extent of his wealth?  A gamble made that has backfired and relegation wasn’t expected.  He’s balancing the books due to unaccounted debts, which I still question the thoroughness of his due dilligence.

 

Well Doyle is off the Bradford it seems so hopefully Big Joe being there yesterday and soon to take DoF at Wigan enables us to secure a loan or two from Wigan.  I’m hoping too the FB can magic a loan striker or two from his connections or AL from his extensive scouting and agency work.  Missilou and Branger-Egon appear to be very promising finds - we need AL to repeat this up front now.

 

Going to be a big week this coming week and then up to the close of the window. The media have us down as relegation fodder, our odds have dropped from 22/1 to 11/1 (or even 8/1) for relegation too.  

 

Hopefully AL makes a statement of intent ahead of Saturday via further signings and then an actual statement reiterating his ambitions.  I think we need it after the soap opera played out over this summer.

Good post

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4 minutes ago, yarddog73 said:

Where's the Doyle to Bradford link?

 

Alan Nixon (The Sun).  Aberdeen wanted Doyle but he’s due to become a dad again so doesn’t want to move to Scotland.  Nixon said Bradford are now in driving seat to sign him.

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16 minutes ago, Midsblue said:

 

Alan Nixon (The Sun).  Aberdeen wanted Doyle but he’s due to become a dad again so doesn’t want to move to Scotland.  Nixon said Bradford are now in driving seat to sign him.

Fair enough, I know he wants to stay in the Manchester area so was clinging on to the hope that he'd rock up at BP again this season, don't suppose Bradford is that much further for him to commute - never mind :disappointed:.

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