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Thoughts on the new season


Thoughts on the new season  

141 members have voted

  1. 1. How excited are you for the new season

    • Buzzing. Can't wait
      44
    • I needed a break but I'm glad the football is back.
      69
    • Meh, is it that time again?
      27
  2. 2. How do you think we will do this year?

    • Top 3, challenging for title
      15
    • Play offs
      38
    • Failed play off push
      25
    • Mid table obscurity
      44
    • 17th as ever, just a different league
      13
    • Down down deeper and down
      5


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3 hours ago, yarddog73 said:

Fair enough, I know he wants to stay in the Manchester area so was clinging on to the hope that he'd rock up at BP again this season, don't suppose Bradford is that much further for him to commute - never mind :disappointed:.

Hopefully he'll have been a regular reader of the tweets by Cliff Byrne and the M62 during his time here.... 

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8 hours ago, Ex_pat said:

I am just coming out of my depression of relegation. To help me decide to recover or slash my wrists again. I thought I would look at a few facts (Oh! sorry this is a OAFC fans website…. FACTS!) of relegated teams from League 1.

 

I looked at all the League 1 (or equivalent) relegations over the time Oldham were in L1 (21 years for those that may have forgotten), to review the chances of return to L1 or oblivion. Below are the results of my review.

 

A) There has been 84 relegations (4x21)

 

B) There has been 54 clubs relegated during that period. ie some clubs relegated multiple times.

 

C) Of the 84 relegations, 53 of them returned to L1 (63%)

 

D) Of the 84 relegations, 20 dropped into non league (24%)

 

E) Of the 20 that dropped to non league, 13 of them returned to to L2 (65%)

 

F) 5 of the relegated clubs (9%) have since gone on to reach the premiership (Blackpool, Bournemouth, Cardiff, Huddersfield and Swansea)

 

G) 12 of the relegated clubs (23%) have since gone on to reach the championship (the 5 above plus Brentford, Luton, MKD, Peterbro, Plymouth, Rotherham and Scunthorpe)

 

I looked more closely at C above to find how long it took to return to L1

 

c1) 20 of the 84 relegations returned to L1 after 1 year in L2. (Blackpool x2, Bournemouth, Brentford, Cardiff, Chesterfield, Coventry, Doncaster, Gillingham, Hartlepool, Huddersfield, Luton, Northampton, Scunthorpe, Shrewsbury, Swindon x2, Walsall, Wrexham and Wycombe)

 

c2) 6 returned to L1 after 2 years. (Bournemouth, Brentford, Bury, Chesterfield, MKD and Rochdale)

 

c3) 6 returned to L1 after 3 years. (Cheltenham, Crewe, Gillingham, Northampton, Peterbro and Stockport)

 

c4) 4 returned to L1 after 4 years. (Chesterfield, Plymouth, Portsmouth and Swansea)

 

c5) 5 returned to L1 after 5 years. (Bristol R, Port Vale, Scunthorpe, Southend and Wycombe)

 

c6) 5 returned to L1 after 6 years. (Bradford, Bristol R, Plymouth, Rotherham and Wycombe)

 

c7) 3 returned to L1 after 7 years. (Northampton, Notts C and Southend)

 

c8)  1 returned to L1 after 8 years (Carlisle)

 

c9)  1 returned to L1 after 9 years (Bury)

 

c10)  1 returned to L1 after 10 years (Luton)

 

c11)  1 returned to L1 after 15 years (Oxford)

 

I also reviewed D above to find how long it took a L1 relegated club to fall into non league

 

d1) 4 of the 84 relegations dropped to non league after 1 year in L2. (Chesterfield, Luton, Stockport and Tranmere)

 

d2) 3 dropped to non league after 2 years. (Leyton O, Rushton & Diamonds and Torquay)

 

d3) 4 dropped to non league after 3 years. (Bristol R, Cambridge, Hereford and Wrexham)

 

d4) 2 dropped to non league after 4 years. (Hartlepool and York)

 

d5) 3 dropped to non league after 5 years. (Dagenham & Redbridge, Mansfield and Oxford)

 

d6) 3 dropped to non league after 6 years. (Carlisle, Cheltenham and Grimsby)

 

d7) 1 dropped to non league after 13 years. (Macclesfield)

 

e1) Of the 20 that dropped to non league. The 7 that have never returned to L2 are: Hartlepool, Dagenham & Redbridge, Hereford, Leyton O, Rushton & Diamonds, Stockport and Wrexham.

 

e2) The 13 that returned from non league were: Bristol R, Cambridge, Carlisle, Cheltenham, Grimsby, Lincoln, Luton, Macclesfield, Mansfield, Oxford, Torquay, Tranmere and York..

 

Note. Wycombe has been relegated 3 times and promoted 3 times whilst Oldham were in L1. Whilst Luton has dropped all the way to non league and returned to L1 in that time.

 

I did not stop there. I then looked at all the League 1 relegations in 21st position over the same period. Again looking at chances of return or oblivion. Below are the results.

 

H) There has been 21 relegations

 

I) There has been 20 clubs relegated during that period (Bournemouth relegated twice in 21st position)

 

J) Of the 21 relegations, 14 returned to L1 (67%)

 

K) Of the 21 relegations, 5 dropped into non league (24%)

 

L) Of the 5 that dropped to non league, 4 of them returned to to L2 (80%) (Grimsby, Tranmere, Torquay and York)

 

M) Of the 4 that returned to L2, 2 have returned to non league (Torquay and York).

 

I looked more closely at H above to find how long it took to return to L1

 

j1) 6 of the 21 relegations returned to L1 after 1 year in L2. (Bournemouth, Brentford, Cardiff, Doncaster, Hartlepool and Scunthorpe)

 

j2) 2 returned to L1 after 2 years. (Bournemouth and MKD)

 

j3) 2 returned to L1 after 3 years. (Cheltenham and Gillingham)

 

j4) 1 returned to L1 after 4 years. (Chesterfield)

 

j5) 2 returned to L1 after 6 years. (Bristol R and Wycombe)

 

j6) 1 returned to L1 after 7 years. (Northampton)

 

I also reviewed I above to find how long it took a L1 21st positioned relegated club to fall into non league

 

k1) 1 of the 21 relegations dropped to non league after 1 year in L2. (Tranmere)

 

k1) 1 dropped to non league e after 2 years in L2. (Torquay)

 

k2) 2 dropped to non league after 5 years. (Dagenham & Redbridge and York)

 

k3) 1 dropped to non league after 6 years. (Grimsby)

 

 

So what conclusion have I come too?

The Latics have a better chance of being promoted than relegated from L2, but promotion needs to be done within 6 years at the most or any momentum is lost.

If slipping into non league is going to happen, it is most likely to happen in the first 6 years, but the probability is small.

There is very little difference in results between clubs finishing 21st or in the bottom 4.

 

My thoughts are that we will have a better season than the past 5, and we will spend more time in the top half than bottom half, finishing in the top half.

So I will let the wounds on my wrists heal, but renewing my ifollow subscription may be a bridge too far (I have a week to change my mind).

 

I hope the Happy Clappers and the Negative Nellies can get something out of this, so as to come to their premeditated conclusion.

 

Oh! I nearly forget the Spelling & Grammar police. I sure they well do well out of this also.

SO what your saying is the odds are a stacked in our favour and we will almost certainly #walktheleague

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2 hours ago, mcfluff1985 said:

After the doom and gloom of relegation I can't wait for Saturday now. I think we'll finish mid-table but need to bring in  these strikers.

 

I actually think even if we don't have the best of starts FB will have the support of the fans

I'm ready to give Bunn a lot of time. My main gripe is with the issues behind the scenes and that's AL's jurisdiction. Only positive noises about the coaching staff thus far.

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With our capitulation last year and the England capitulation, once they faced a decent team in a meaningful game, I'm not yet thirsting for more punishment from Oldham.  Saw the Forest game after a good interview with Bunn but that might have been a false dawn.

 

We will continue to struggle as the team is unbalanced and the owner likes to dabble.

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