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56 minutes ago, Wardie said:

I don't understand the HCID status at all.

From the article...

 

Airborne HCID

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)*

 

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
An 
infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Respiratory droplets may be produced during breathing but it is not considered 
airborne

Conflicting is not being considered airborne yet being told that the droplets are blown out form an infected person, to a range of two metres and can stay in the area for several hours before dying off. I suppose it's saying the virus cannot be spread through breathing and talking. 

 

Definition of HCID

In the UK, a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) is defined according to the following criteria:

- acute infectious disease

- typically has a high case-fatality rate

- may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment

- often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly

- ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings

- requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely

 

To me, the above definitions are relevant to this virus although two and three may be a bit ambiguous at the moment.

 

Exactly, criteria are not met.  Case-fatality is low, HCID's are the likes of Ebola and the classification is relevant for containment levels required in clinical and laboratory settings.

 

There's nothing here, I suspect this was originally picked up from the SLOG website.

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I'd like to repeat the resources I mentioned the other day - and add a few new ones...

 

If you are a key worker be it a plumber, supermarket assistant, ward clerk, delivery driver or anybody else who is vital to this situation - thanks - it's much appreciated. If you are staying in isolating as best you can, stay safe and only make those essential journeys if you can - and make your regular exercise local. Keep talking to everyone you know - and maybe don't know so well, make sure people who might need help are okay.

 

If you are able to, the NHS are looking for volunteers:

https://www.goodsamapp.org/NHS

 

Also there maybe local Mutual Aid in your area that could use your help:

https://covidmutualaid.org/

 

If you want to help collect data for medical science (King's College, Guy's and St. Thomas' Hospital etc), there's this app:

https://covid.joinzoe.com/


Action Together are co-ordinating our local volunteer services to help in our communties. They need your help and are currently registering people interested in volunteering in response to Covid19. If you can help in any way please contact them through their website.

https://www.actiontogether.org.uk/

 

CALM / @theCALMZONE offer a free, confidential helpline 0800 58 58 58 & webchat open 5pm-12am daily. Their helpline and webchat is for people in the UK who are down or have hit a wall for any reason, who need to talk or find information and support.

https://www.thecalmzone.net/help/get-help/

 

NHS advce. Advice for everyone, advice for people at high risk, symptoms and what to do, and self-isolation.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

 

Government guidelines

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

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3 hours ago, Wardie said:

I don't understand the HCID status at all.

From the article...

 

Airborne HCID

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)*

 

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
An 
infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Respiratory droplets may be produced during breathing but it is not considered 
airborne

Conflicting is not being considered airborne yet being told that the droplets are blown out form an infected person, to a range of two metres and can stay in the area for several hours before dying off. I suppose it's saying the virus cannot be spread through breathing and talking. 

 

Definition of HCID

In the UK, a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) is defined according to the following criteria:

- acute infectious disease

- typically has a high case-fatality rate

- may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment

- often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly

- ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings

- requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely

 

To me, the above definitions are relevant to this virus although two and three may be a bit ambiguous at the moment.

 

2 hours ago, frizzell54 said:

 

Exactly, criteria are not met.  Case-fatality is low, HCID's are the likes of Ebola and the classification is relevant for containment levels required in clinical and laboratory settings.

 

There's nothing here, I suspect this was originally picked up from the SLOG website.

Point 4 may not apply either given the test, although I don't know the sensitivity or specificity of the current test. 

 

I'd guess SARS doesn't meet the HCID criteria these days either, as the testing has improved with successive corona virus outbreaks. 

 

Similarly the treatment will improve with more corona virus outbreaks. The speed of the "treatment" process for COVID-19 both in the UK and worldwide has been remarkable. 

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20 hours ago, jorvik_latic said:

 

With your health at risk, I’m even more surprised that you disagreed with the responsible decision to suspend the league to restricted the spread of a deadly disease. 

 

Definitely a good decision to suspend matches...

 

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-champions-league-match-a-biological-bomb-that-infected-bergamo-experts-say-11963905 

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1 hour ago, jorvik_latic said:

You are good with that telescope of hindsight.

 

So what is your thoughts about the validity of this report.

The first case of Covid-19 was in this crowd in Bergamo and gave it to 40,000?  Even this report says the first cases were a week later.  One person could have only given the virus to a small number of people.

If there were already a large number of people with the virus, then the Italian authorities should have postponed the game.  

 

The facts in Italy are that they did not realise the virus was there and spreading until to late to contain it.  

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49 minutes ago, Pidge said:

You are good with that telescope of hindsight.

 

So what is your thoughts about the validity of this report.

The first case of Covid-19 was in this crowd in Bergamo and gave it to 40,000?  Even this report says the first cases were a week later.  One person could have only given the virus to a small number of people.

If there were already a large number of people with the virus, then the Italian authorities should have postponed the game.  

 

The facts in Italy are that they did not realise the virus was there and spreading until to late to contain it.  

I may be wrong but aren't you able to spread the virus 5 days before you start showing symptoms. 

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3 hours ago, rudemedic said:

 

Point 4 may not apply either given the test, although I don't know the sensitivity or specificity of the current test. 

 

I'd guess SARS doesn't meet the HCID criteria these days either, as the testing has improved with successive corona virus outbreaks. 

 

Similarly the treatment will improve with more corona virus outbreaks. The speed of the "treatment" process for COVID-19 both in the UK and worldwide has been remarkable. 

 

Sensitivity and specificity of PCR based test will be very high.  However, an antigen test was mentioned in the press conference and that could be more problematical, as will the antibody test, because they will require certain levels for detection.

 

Setting cut off points for positive/negative will depend on why they are testing.  For the antibody test, if they are testing for presence of antibodies to enable people to return to work they will not want false positives as this could put those returning in danger.

 

Surveillance testing to estimate numbers in the population are not so critical.

 

This whole area of sensitivity, specificity and likelihood is fascinating.

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2 hours ago, Pidge said:

You are good with that telescope of hindsight.

 

So what is your thoughts about the validity of this report.

The first case of Covid-19 was in this crowd in Bergamo and gave it to 40,000?  Even this report says the first cases were a week later.  One person could have only given the virus to a small number of people.

If there were already a large number of people with the virus, then the Italian authorities should have postponed the game.  

 

The facts in Italy are that they did not realise the virus was there and spreading until to late to contain it.  

 

You don’t get it, that’s fine. 

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2 hours ago, disjointed said:

I may be wrong but aren't you able to spread the virus 5 days before you start showing symptoms. 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/874316/Infection_prevention_and_control_guidance_for_pandemic_coronavirus.pdf
Page 8  section 2.2 suggests mostly that people are infective when they get symptoms and for 7 days. However there is good evidence of infectivity 24 hours before symptoms and occasionally 3 days before. 
 

I’m not sure the point you were making disjointed.

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18 hours ago, rudemedic said:

 

Point 4 may not apply either given the test, although I don't know the sensitivity or specificity of the current test. 

 

I'd guess SARS doesn't meet the HCID criteria these days either, as the testing has improved with successive corona virus outbreaks. 

 

Similarly the treatment will improve with more corona virus outbreaks. The speed of the "treatment" process for COVID-19 both in the UK and worldwide has been remarkable. 


 

List of high consequence infectious diseases

A list of HCIDs has been agreed by a joint Public Health England (PHE) and NHS England HCIDProgramme:

Contact HCID Airborne HCID
Argentine haemorrhagic fever (Junin virus) Andes virus infection (hantavirus)
Bolivian haemorrhagic fever (Machupo virus) Avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1
Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) Avian influenza A H5N6 and H7N7
Ebola virus disease (EVD) Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)
Lassa fever Monkeypox
Lujo virus disease Nipah virus infection
Marburg virus disease (MVD) Pneumonic plague (Yersinia pestis)
Severe fever with thrombocytopaenia syndrome (SFTS) Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)*

*No cases reported since 2004, but SARSremains a notifiable disease under the International Health Regulations (2005), hence its inclusion here

 

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Hope this guy is right!  But some of those numbers elsewhere are horrific. 
 

 

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Poor lad from Charlton who's attended every Addicks match home and away since 1998 (over 1,000 in total) died of the disease yesterday. Thirty-fucking-eight.

 

Stay safe!

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1 minute ago, Frankly Mr Shankly said:

Poor lad from Charlton who's attended every Addicks match home and away since 1998 (over 1,000 in total) died of the disease yesterday. Thirty-fucking-eight.

 

Stay safe!

That’s terrible, I hope the club honour him in some way.

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2 hours ago, Frankly Mr Shankly said:

Poor lad from Charlton who's attended every Addicks match home and away since 1998 (over 1,000 in total) died of the disease yesterday. Thirty-fucking-eight.

 

Stay safe!

Horrendous and won't be last football club supporter who dies from this outbreak. I hope every football club in the world takes note of the casualties amongst its supporters and honours every single one of them. Plus, this virus is not taking any notice of age, perceived status, creed or colour. 

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8 hours ago, kowenicki said:

Hope this guy is right!  But some of those numbers elsewhere are horrific. 
 

 

I think that may be a bit optimistic. We are already at 160 and increasing quite rapidly now.

 

The total each day though is not accurate because they don't record a death until they have approval from the family.

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I remember screaming at the TV telling the government they were daft cunts for letting Cheltenham Races go ahead. 
 

I wonder if that will be our ground zero now, just like the football match in Italy when Atalanta played Velenzia.

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On 3/22/2020 at 4:27 PM, Magic Mikey said:

How's the “washing harmlessly through" going? 

Magic Mikey - I`m not going to get all emotive.

 

I`ve only ever talked about perspective. Globally there have now been over 28,000 deaths recorded from coronavirus.

 

In the UK in 2014/15, just over 28,000 people died from the flu.

 

That provides perspective. I repeat again - this is not going to be Armageddon. 

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, al_bro said:

I think that may be a bit optimistic. We are already at 160 and increasing quite rapidly now.

 

The total each day though is not accurate because they don't record a death until they have approval from the family.


Wasn’t this shown to be fake. 
 

Also, I think we, and other countries are reporting deaths where people died WITH the disease rather than OF the disease.  Germany only reporting cases where the cause of death is Covid. 
 

 

Edited by kowenicki

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29 minutes ago, wiseowl said:

In the UK in 2014/15, just over 28,000 people died from the flu.

 

Thanks for the stats, please could you show me where you got that number from?

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29 minutes ago, wiseowl said:

Magic Mikey - I`m not going to get all emotive.

 

I`ve only ever talked about perspective. Globally there have now been over 28,000 deaths recorded from coronavirus.

 

In the UK in 2014/15, just over 28,000 people died from the flu.

 

That provides perspective. I repeat again - this is not going to be Armageddon. 

Please stop. Large parts of the world are in lockdown and we’ve not had a year of it yet. You can’t compare those numbers at all. How many deaths would there be without lockdown?
 

What you have said provides zero perspective at all. 

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32 minutes ago, wiseowl said:

Magic Mikey - I`m not going to get all emotive.

 

I`ve only ever talked about perspective. Globally there have now been over 28,000 deaths recorded from coronavirus.

 

In the UK in 2014/15, just over 28,000 people died from the flu.

 

That provides perspective. I repeat again - this is not going to be Armageddon. 

FFS. Do you think we should have carried on as normal?? 

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50 minutes ago, wiseowl said:

Magic Mikey - I`m not going to get all emotive.

 

I`ve only ever talked about perspective. Globally there have now been over 28,000 deaths recorded from coronavirus.

 

In the UK in 2014/15, just over 28,000 people died from the flu.

 

That provides perspective. I repeat again - this is not going to be Armageddon. 

Assume you're still going about your daily business then. Give it a rest. You're not a fucking doctor or a scientist. Nobody here is going to accept your opinion on this over the worlds cleverest people. 

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57 minutes ago, wiseowl said:

Magic Mikey - I`m not going to get all emotive.

 

I`ve only ever talked about perspective. Globally there have now been over 28,000 deaths recorded from coronavirus.

 

In the UK in 2014/15, just over 28,000 people died from the flu.

 

That provides perspective. I repeat again - this is not going to be Armageddon. 

I think you're in a minority of one now. Maybe time to stop digging that hole? 

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