pinchmepup

What's the odds of staying in League 1 for 20 years? -Each year seven teams leave the division. Chances of staying in the division in a given year are 17 / 24 = 71%. -The chance of staying in the division for two years running would be (71% x 71%) = 50%. So after two years in the division, a team is equally likely to stay put or leave it. -Staying put for 20 years would be a (71%) ^ 20 shot = 0.1% or 1 in 989. -This assumes that each year a team has an equal chance of finishing in any position. But what if the team has a low crowd, poor budget and in truth is more likely to finish somewhere in the bottom half? In that case the chance of leaving the division would be even higher, at 4 in 12. The chance of staying put for 20 years would be even less likely, at (67%) ^ 20 = 0.03% or 1 in 3,325. This seems pretty unlikely. More likely conclusion -- the club is being run in a way that keeps it in the division. Maybe not deliberately. But if all decisions are taken to minimise short-term cash losses while keeping the club afloat, then this will mean selling any saleable assets as soon as possible (players, managers etc) instead of giving them a pay rise, which will prevent us ever going up. The flipside is pumping in emergency resources whenever we are in real danger of going down (change manager, add better loan players etc).

Substituted Bree Louise for Enigma Tavern. Plan otherwise intact. Will be easier to get back from than Lincoln!

For those with no morals, who is heading to MK tomorrow evening by train? Bletchley --> Enigma Tavern --> taxi to the ground?

Well that was :censored:.

Anyone else up for this one? I've booked train tickets as follows. Out on 15.08 from Kings Cross, gets into Lincoln 17.13. Return on 22.26, gets into Kings Cross at 00.54. (Needs a 13 min taxi change between the Newarks to catch the 23.07 from Newark Northgate. Cheaper if bought as two separate tickets.) Advance fares are £25 out, £19 back plus £5.10 back.

Sounds good - yes I will be going to Leyton, should get to Technical by 2pm. Am coming with my son who has an undefeated record at Latics games so far!

I am planning to go up to this one. Train tickets Lon to Stoke available for £40 return. Last train back is 21.53 which cuts it a bit fine, but only 12mins from stadium to station by taxi. Any takers?

I've also got a spare Fleetwood ticket for donation to Rape Crisis, if any interest. I guess I'll try to go to more Arsenal games with my son (closest team). How could they be so utterly stupid? Barry obviously, but all the others? They got unanimity FFS.

I'm in. Should be at Bree Louise shortly after 12.

I've got my ticket. Looking forward to it. 2,300 of 3,000 gone so likely to sell out in the next week or two. Any thoughts on train times?

I'm in - see you on the 11 30.

I had Brazil to win 1-0 so got it half right! Now need Argentina to win the tournament to have any chance.

Come on Germany. Shut up shop for five more minutes and 1-0 will do nicely for 5 bonus points.

Payment sent last night.

I will be going up on the 9.15, back on the 7.47pm.

See you for the 11.55 at St Pancras. Note the train ticket comes with a good web discount if booked directly on the Southeastern website. (Sorry, not sure if Webshop compatible...)

I see there's a train back from Wolverhampton to London at 10.45pm for only £7 advance. Also cheap train out there at 2.23pm for £11. Anyone else tempted to go?

I'll be getting a train from Victoria round about 1pm. Which pub are you going to be in?

Managed to get Oldham to win in 90mins at 23-1 on Betfair. Crazy odds.

Shamrock on Lime St?

I'm on 14.07 train on the way up. Doing the crazy night coach thing to get back to London.

The draw could go two ways. Either we get a top-three glamour draw, or else we get less exciting but more winnable tie vs Millwall, Blackburn, Barnsley, Wigan/ Hudds. I can see advantages to both types so don't mind either way.

A cheap (if grim) option is National Express coaches. The all-night one leaves Liverpool at 23.40 and gets into London at about 6am. Ok if you can kip on a coach seat...

Just got matched on Betfair at 800-1 to win the cup! Only two quid but still...

Not impersonating anyone, just a different Alex. Former colleague of Sam's