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Prediction for the season


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For the last couple of seasons I've looked at the fixtures ahead and tried to plot what we have to do to get promotion (yes I know but it's better than working)

In the past 7 years the following points totals have got second place

07/08-82

06/07-85

05/06-79

04/05-86

03/04-83

02/03-86

01/02-84

The higher points totals tend to come when someone runs away at the top e.g Wigan or Luton which i think may happen this year so I would say 85 should be the number to look at.

I reckon this would mean 25 wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats

So 4 sides who we will only get one point off from the 2 games against them

Brighton, Huddersfield, Leicester, Leeds

7sides who we will get 3 point off from the 2 games against them

Colchester,MKD,Northampton,Millwall,Scunthorpe, Southend,Peterborough,

6 sides who we will get 4 points off from the 2 games against them

Bristol R,Carlisle,Stockport,Cheltenham, Tranmere,Walsall

6sides who we will get 6 points off from the 2 games against them

Crewe,Hartlepool, Leyton O, Hereford, Yeovil, Swindon

 

The problem last year were the 6 pointers I predicted which just didn't happen as we really struggled against some of the lower teams. The bonuses were against Leeds,Swansea and Tranmere. The crap start always meant we were about 6/7 points behind where i predicted we should be throughout the season and that ended up being the defecit more of less.

Anyway lets see what happens, can't wait! :D

Edited by astottie
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Nice analysis - I have 10 points less at 75 - a safe playoff berth I would venture??

 

 

yes i think you're right and that would be more realistic. I'd decided how many points we needed and then where they were most likely to come from if we were going to have to get them.

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  • 4 months later...
For the last couple of seasons I've looked at the fixtures ahead and tried to plot what we have to do to get promotion (yes I know but it's better than working)

In the past 7 years the following points totals have got second place

07/08-82

06/07-85

05/06-79

04/05-86

03/04-83

02/03-86

01/02-84

The higher points totals tend to come when someone runs away at the top e.g Wigan or Luton which i think may happen this year so I would say 85 should be the number to look at.

I reckon this would mean 25 wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats

So 4 sides who we will only get one point off from the 2 games against them

Brighton, Huddersfield, Leicester, Leeds

7sides who we will get 3 point off from the 2 games against them

Colchester,MKD,Northampton,Millwall,Scunthorpe, Southend,Peterborough,

6 sides who we will get 4 points off from the 2 games against them

Bristol R,Carlisle,Stockport,Cheltenham, Tranmere,Walsall

6sides who we will get 6 points off from the 2 games against them

Crewe,Hartlepool, Leyton O, Hereford, Yeovil, Swindon

 

The problem last year were the 6 pointers I predicted which just didn't happen as we really struggled against some of the lower teams. The bonuses were against Leeds,Swansea and Tranmere. The crap start always meant we were about 6/7 points behind where i predicted we should be throughout the season and that ended up being the defecit more of less.

Anyway lets see what happens, can't wait! :D

 

Just to let you know that according to the predictions above we are absolutely bang on for the 85 points i thought would give us automatic promotion. i'd given us 3 points for Carlisle tomorrow and none for Huddersfield away so with a bit of luck we might be able to get an extra point or three for insurance before the week is out. As per last year the harder two groups of results are the ones in which we are over performing and the lower 2 groups where we shouldn't be losing are where we are dropping points

 

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It is though interesting that the four games we've lost have all been against sides you said we wouldn't lose to, and we haven't lost against those who you thought we would have.

 

Be careful now I'm not sure i like where this is going....... :D

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