The EU referendum - 23rd June

[frizzell54]

 

 

but all knuckle-dragging, dribbling, club-wielding homo erectus types voted Brexit.

 

 

 

Not borne out by the posts on this site.

[China]

Definitely not but true all the same

 

 

 

 

Not borne out by the posts on this site.

 

Definitely not but true all the same.

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

We are an inefficient, dead-headed, unimaginative, racist, lazy and capricious little Island in the North Atlantic. We are definitely not going to bring the World or ourselves to its knees, but we don't mind threatening it.

[Crusoe]

Interesting piece by John Lanchester

 

Long read, but good. Some points that have been made before and rehashing them won't add anything new (although some telling comments, e.g. on the terrible Remain campaign - "Making economic arguments to voters who feel oppressed by economics is risky: they’re quite likely to tell you to go :censored: yourself"). More interesting on his speculation as to what happens next. A couple of depressing conclusions:

 

If Britain were to secure a deal whereby it had access to the single market and control over EU immigration, it would be the end of the EU – because other countries would leave the EU and demand the same [...] Continental elites feel just as strongly about the continued existence of the EU as the Leavers feel about Brexit. For the EU to survive, it will be important for the UK to be seen to pay a high price for leaving.

 

In addition, nervous governments, desperate for revenue, are likely to bend even further backwards to give the City the policies it wants. An early sign of policy direction was George Osborne’s announcement that he wanted to cut corporation tax to 15 per cent to show that post-Brexit Britain is ‘open for business’. Osborne has gone; the policy probably hasn’t. [...] None of this is what working-class voters had in mind when they opted for Leave. If it’s combined with the policy every business interest in the UK wants – the Norwegian option, in which we contribute to the EU and accept free movement of labour, i.e. immigration, as part of the price – it will be a profound betrayal of much of the Leave vote. If we do anything else, we will be inflicting severe economic damage on ourselves [...]

Edited July 26, 2016 by Crusoe

[mikejh45]

Who or what is John Lanchester?

[Crusoe]

If only there was some kind of website where one could search for the answers to questions like that, eh?

 

Less facetiously: journalist for a few of the broadsheets and novelist. Has written a lot about the financial crisis. I assume from his output somewhat left-leaning but not unthinkingly so.

[mikejh45]

Just had a quick look as I've never heard of him (not that means a great deal.....I'm still getting the hang of books without pictures). It reads like a bitter journalist rehashing the same theoretical scare stories as pre referendum.

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

Not all leave voters were non-readers of the London Review of Books.

[mikejh45]

I stopped when I couldn't find any faces to draw green beards on.

 

 

Not sure what relevance the London Review of Books has to the majority of voters in either camp.

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

I stopped when I couldn't find any faces to draw green beards on.

 

 

Not sure what relevance the London Review of Books has to the majority of voters in either camp.

Not all remain voters were London Review of Books readers, but all London Review of Books readers voted remain.

 

Did you hear May today talking about Ireland? I didn't get the exact quote, but it was something like "We won't do anything to jeopardise the peace process." A fair enough platitude - for the untrained ear. What she's saying is: "I'm the prime minister. If leaving the EU jeopardises peace in Ireland, we're not leaving."

 

Just another piece of the gigantic betrayal jigsaw.

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

Just read the Lanchester article and got that satisfying feeling you get when someone agrees with you in print.

 

The only sensible thing to do now is betray the white working class, our net benefit recipients. The question is how - long-lead, never-in-a-million-years Brexit, or Brexit with free movement and membership fees. I prefer the May approach, which is we can't leave if this, that or the other will happen.

 

The ultimate betrayal would be actual Brexit, on the various terms mooted by Brexit campaigners before the referendum.

[mikejh45]

Bold statement there but I think it says more about the London set if they feel that reading the review of books trumps reading the books themselves and talking about them over dinner parties......a bit like the Bluffers Guide series.

 

Regarding May, I feel she is walking on broken glass at the moment and trying to choose the least hazardous route. I've no doubt she will turn 180 degrees on certain issues but regarding pressing the Exit button, I'm of the opinion it will happen otherwise she will be a very short lived Tory leader and subject to a leadership challenge (I'll take a best guess on Jacob Rees Mogg based on gut feeling and no sources etc.) . It wouldn't be good for the country if a challenge came about but the situation is in May's hands as she has stated she will lead the nation out.

[GlossopLatic]

Just saw the below on Ted Talks if you have a spare 20 mins and if you like this type of stuff its starts out remain leaning but stick with it as it tries to explain the reasons that this occured.

 

Gives an idea of a possible way forward post Brexit and an interesting point about migration and how its important not to ignore or alienate the existing population. Immigration can and should work as long as those currently here are not marginalised which appears to be the case.

 

https://www.ted.com/talks/alexander_betts_why_brexit_happened_and_what_to_do_next

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

Bold statement there but I think it says more about the London set if they feel that reading the review of books trumps reading the books themselves and talking about them over dinner parties......a bit like the Bluffers Guide series.

 

Regarding May, I feel she is walking on broken glass at the moment and trying to choose the least hazardous route. I've no doubt she will turn 180 degrees on certain issues but regarding pressing the Exit button, I'm of the opinion it will happen otherwise she will be a very short lived Tory leader and subject to a leadership challenge (I'll take a best guess on Jacob Rees Mogg based on gut feeling and no sources etc.) . It wouldn't be good for the country if a challenge came about but the situation is in May's hands as she has stated she will lead the nation out.

Has she really stated that she'll lead the nation out? I thought she said she'll lead the nation out if X, Y and Z, with X, Y and Z being the solution to any number of problems and risks.

 

Don't put any money on Jacob Rees-Mogg btw. Liam Fox maybe, but they'd need their heads read if they got rid of one of only two grown-ups currently in British politics.

[mikejh45]

Has she really stated that she'll lead the nation out? I thought she said she'll lead the nation out if X, Y and Z, with X, Y and Z being the solution to any number of problems and risks.

 

Don't put any money on Jacob Rees-Mogg btw. Liam Fox maybe, but they'd need their heads read if they got rid of one of only two grown-ups currently in British politics.

I'm pretty certain she has said both to different audiences. She said the day before moving into Nr 10....."Brexit means Brexit". To me that is unequivocal but politicians are untrustworthy animals hence a challenge if she defaults.

Regarding a potential challenge, they are both daft enough to try if we don't leave. I vaguely recall Moggy previously indicating that he would stand as a "stalking horse" but you'll have a better idea.

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

Mogg a definite stalking horse possibility if article 50 is still disappeared by the end of 2017. Lots can happen in that time. There could be a run on the pound. Scotland might actually leave the UK after a revival in the oil price. Trump could be president. Something as workaday as UK floods could delay things. And so it goes on. She might spend the next 10 years reminding us how handy the European Union is in these situations.

[piglinbland]

Michel Barnier has been named by Jean-Claude Juncker as the EU's Brexit negotiator (according to 'Liberation').

 

'The Frenchman, ex- European commissioner for the interior market and financial services (2009 - 2014), bête-noir of the city of London and the English press, is hardly an Anglophile and barely speaks a word of English.'

 

'...an appointment to counter May's 'trio de choc' - Johnson, Davis and Fox - this 64 year old Savoyard is very under-estimated in French politics due to his distaste for small talk and his limited sense of humour. A staunch and tenacious supporter of Europe, his unprecedented shake-up of the financial institutions during his role as regulator required multiple approval from the British government - and he likes to tell that of 42 texts proposed, only 2 were rejected by the British.'

 

'For Barnier, there is no question of selling out the interests of the E.U.to please a country which has shot itself in the foot. From what we can gather, he believes there will be two successive negotiations - the first, within two years, the rupture between London and the EU and only then, Britain's new stature... Because she was so ill-prepared for Brexit, her gracious majesty's government is totally ill-equipped for and without clear ideas as to the handling of this retreat - notably concerning her own legislation and her international commerce'.

[mikejh45]

My view on whether we move ahead depends on tacit agreements with the rest of the trading world and downward pressure on politicians within the EU from exporting business groups but that has already been discussed at length on here. One point I would add and I can't confirm where I read it (or if it is feasible) was the Canadians, who have just concluded a trading agreement have said we can "bolt-on" to their agreement to gain access into the EU.

Personally, I'd let the sweaties have a referendum. If they think they can rely on oil revenues now or in the near future then we can just sit back and smile because the easily accessed oil has all but gone. There is still lots down there but the cost to get it is prohibitive in comparison to the stuff the Saudis and Iranians. And while we (ok me) are Scots bashing, move the Trident fleet away from Faslane because they don't want it........move it to depressed Barrow. I'm sure the one eyed, six fingered locals would greatly appreciate the business.

[leeslover]

Mr Juncker is getting ahead of himself appointing a negotiating chief, Article 50 negotiations are in the remit of heads of government, not the Commission. Sort of underlines the sort of organisation it is.

[piglinbland]

Mr Juncker is getting ahead of himself appointing a negotiating chief, Article 50 negotiations are in the remit of heads of government, not the Commission. Sort of underlines the sort of organisation it is.

 

Maybe so, but I can't see how anyone could have imagined it would pan out any other way. Kind of underlines the hardships that lie ahead.

[mikejh45]

The whole EU is a house of cards with Germany holding 3 aces and Britain the remaining one. Now we are proposing to withdraw our ace, the structure is looking very shaky!!!

[piglinbland]

The whole EU is a house of cards with Germany holding 3 aces and Britain the remaining one. Now we are proposing to withdraw our ace, the structure is looking very shaky!!!

I doubt that the withdrawal of Britain will seriously undermine the EU.

 

Sadly, however, we should expect a concerted terror campaign in France prior to the 2017 elections - aimed at splitting the population and precipitating the arrival of Marine Le Pen at the Elysée. If this happens, the days of the EU may well be numbered. This splitting of the union would be seen by the lunatic fundamentalists as an opening door to exploit their avowed aim of chaos and the destruction of all infidels - by the infiltration and picking off of countries one by one.

[mikejh45]

I think you are seriously under-estimating the effect Britain's intended withdrawal will/has create(d) A number of countries with established right wing parties have expressed a desire to follow our lead for a referendum. The terrorist campaign has just accelerated that desire.

Add to that there are a number of countries such as Spain, Portugal and Italy worried about being sucked into a Greek financial mess.

 

With Britain leaving (hopefully), there is only Germany that can seriously underpin the organisation and I remain to be convinced that the populace have the appetite to support Merkel.

[piglinbland]

I don't disagree with your points but to whose advantage would the fall of the EU be? Surely the more predatory, peripheral nations?

 

How do you imagine the geo-political stability of Europe (and with regard to Britain) should the EU dissolve?

[mikejh45]

I don't disagree with your points but to whose advantage would the fall of the EU be? Surely the more predatory, peripheral nations?

 

How do you imagine the geo-political stability of Europe (and with regard to Britain) should the EU dissolve?

It's not a case of looking for an advantageous position, it's more of a situation of extricating one's self before being sucked further into this failed, ill thought out social experiment. If the EU had stuck to it's tenet of free trade and no more then we wouldn't have the majority of problems we have now.