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The EU referendum - 23rd June


The EU referendum  

216 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you want the UK to leave or remain in the EU?

    • Leave the EU
      93
    • Remain in the EU
      102
    • Currently undecided
      21


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I kind of read this the same way that one stares into space for no apparent reason.
 

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/04/04/may-s-entire-brexit-plan-has-fallen-apart-and-the-press-are

 

'We're trimming this up for the 2020 election, it won't be finished for decades, and then what you will get is nothing like what we're selling to you now'

 

EU lite. Tell me something new. I dread to think how much this referendum has cost us so far...

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, 24hoursfromtulsehill said:

Just won £100 on politics. 

 

Last June, drunk, I bet someone £100 that we wouldn't leave the EU before the next general election.

 

Get the fuck in there.

 

And I get six weeks off. 

I'm trying to imagine the look on the Labour MPs faces as the go through the lobby.

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2 hours ago, leeslover said:

I'm trying to imagine the look on the Labour MPs faces as the go through the lobby.

 

Probably don't look any different to how they've looked for the past two years. What are the odds on Labour going down to 80-90 seats? Probably not as long as anyone would like. 

 

The real group getting a shoeing at the general election is the Tory right. Larger majority means they have less power or no power at all, whereas at the moment they have lots. If May wants soft or no Brexit...this is the play.

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I read a view that the timing is perfect for the Blairites, they will avoid anything that looks disloyal to let Jez shoulder the blame and the survivors have 5 years before they can be purged.

 

I do wonder if it comes slightly too late for UKIP to wipe Labour out SNP stylee in the Northern cities.

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32 minutes ago, leeslover said:

I read a view that the timing is perfect for the Blairites, they will avoid anything that looks disloyal to let Jez shoulder the blame and the survivors have 5 years before they can be purged.

 

I do wonder if it comes slightly too late for UKIP to wipe Labour out SNP stylee in the Northern cities.

 

Yeah I don't think it'll happen for UKIP. UKIP's just a gateway drug for a full swing to the Tories. And your northern cities were never that keen on UKIP...it's your northern towns in the M62 corridor where they might have had a chance once upon a time.

 

I honestly don't know how many seats Labour will end up with. 80-90? Fewer? Anything can happen.

Edited by 24hoursfromtulsehill
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I can't see who Labour will lose that many seats to. I do expect some spectacular losses in Leave heartlands where the Labour  candidate won't let it go but there are more than 90 where the Tories simply couldn't win whatever the national swing. If UKIP hadn't been attempting to top themselves it could have been different 

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1 hour ago, leeslover said:

I can't see who Labour will lose that many seats to. I do expect some spectacular losses in Leave heartlands where the Labour  candidate won't let it go but there are more than 90 where the Tories simply couldn't win whatever the national swing. If UKIP hadn't been attempting to top themselves it could have been different 

 

Seriously. This is the Bermondsey by-election 1983 for Labour. I honestly believe that Progress and Momentum candidates alike could get beaten by anyone, anywhere. I can't see Momentum voters turning out for Progress candidates and vice versa. It's that bad. For the past two years, the Labour Party has existed in name only. I can vote for Harriett Harman (if she stands), but I probably wouldn't vote for Angela Rayner or Richard Burgon. 

 

I'll have a look at the odds later but <100 seats should be a decent bet. 

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