HarryBosch Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 On 8/26/2020 at 7:47 AM, Ackey said: That's because they are not remotely the same beast: What do those percentages mean? Is it saying 10.4% of American over 85's had died from COVID by March 18th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackey Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 2 hours ago, HarryBosch said: What do those percentages mean? Is it saying 10.4% of American over 85's had died from COVID by March 18th? I believe, don't have the article in front of me, it was 10.4% of those with a confirmed case had died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarryBosch Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Ackey said: I believe, don't have the article in front of me, it was 10.4% of those with a confirmed case had died. v 0.83% of confirmed Flu cases in over 65's dying? But they don't test for or record flu cases in anything like the same way do they? Doesn't seem to be comparing eggs with eggs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al_bro Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 On 8/26/2020 at 6:00 PM, rudemedic said: They vaccinate against more than one type of flu virus each year. It is usually based on the flu viruses from SE Asia / Australia their previous "winter" following mathematical modelling. In 2014, (the year (not so) Wiseowl was going on about at the beginning of the thread) when the flu deaths were high this was because the viruses in the vaccine were wrong and Europe got a flu virus that wasn't covered as part of the vaccine. Someone being reinfected with COVID and from what I've read they think there's at least 2 different strains is not good news. However, the process for incorporating different strains of the virus into a vaccine will almost certainly have been factored into the development / manufacturing process. So it is not catastrophic news. Unfortunately I think this will mean several things. --being allergic to egg will be an absolute contra-indication for the COVID vaccine (due to the manufacturing process required). -- you may need numerous vaccines over time (akin to what happens with flu now). -----Or you'll need booster(s) akin to what is required for MMR / tetanus. --there is an increased risk that vaccines won't be fully effective because of the combinations of strains possibly needed. --it is very likely that any optimistic estimations as to when a vaccine will be ready won't be realistic. There is potentially some upside though as if the COVID vaccine is more complicated due to more than 1 strain needing to be vaccinated against, there is likely to be an increased chance of a COVID vaccine being effective against other coronaviruses. The man in Hong Kong who got the virus a second time, didn't know he had it. He was given a temperature check at the airport, which was higher than normal so he was given a test. It doesn't necessarily mean it was a different strain, but whatever it was the antibodies he made when he was infected back in April, were fighting off this re-infection. I suppose the main problem is the fact that he could spread the virus, by not knowing that he had been re-infected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowenicki Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 18 hours ago, Ackey said: I believe, don't have the article in front of me, it was 10.4% of those with a confirmed case had died. In early March in the US they were pretty much only testing people that had died. Meaningless stat. Also ‘with’ not ‘of’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackey Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, kowenicki said: In early March in the US they were pretty much only testing people that had died. Meaningless stat. Also ‘with’ not ‘of’. 16 hours ago, HarryBosch said: Doesn't seem to be comparing eggs with eggs.... I've not personally seen any peer reviewed studies which support the case for this being 'nothing to worry about' and most arguments against rely heavily on conspiracy tropes like "control" and such - again, lacking in evidence. I'd be interested to see which studies support the case that this isn't something to worry about, if you have them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowenicki Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ackey said: I've not personally seen any peer reviewed studies which support the case for this being 'nothing to worry about' and most arguments against rely heavily on conspiracy tropes like "control" and such - again, lacking in evidence. I'd be interested to see which studies support the case that this isn't something to worry about, if you have them? Well... you can worry if you like. Many people are. More recent stats prove something very clearly. It almost exclusively attacks the very old or those with existing conditions. In Scotland the average age of a Covid death is OLDER than average life expectancy! It is simply not a dangerous disease for the overwhelming majority of the population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mikey Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 hour ago, kowenicki said: Well... you can worry if you like. Many people are. More recent stats prove something very clearly. It almost exclusively attacks the very old or those with existing conditions. In Scotland the average age of a Covid death is OLDER than average life expectancy! It is simply not a dangerous disease for the overwhelming majority of the population. Do you know how averages work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowenicki Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, Magic Mikey said: Do you know how averages work? Yes. Obviously. for example our average league position for the last few years has been terrible... are you going to tell me it hasn’t been terrible really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
singe Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 hour ago, kowenicki said: Well... you can worry if you like. Many people are. More recent stats prove something very clearly. It almost exclusively attacks the very old or those with existing conditions. In Scotland the average age of a Covid death is OLDER than average life expectancy! It is simply not a dangerous disease for the overwhelming majority of the population. Wait, so everyone that died of Covid was over the average age lif expectancy, should have been dead aleady, and Covid kept them alive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mikey Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, kowenicki said: Yes. Obviously. for example our average league position for the last few years has been terrible... are you going to tell me it hasn’t been terrible really? No then. I cannot believe after the events of this year anyone can say: "It is simply not a dangerous disease for the overwhelming majority of the population." I'm going to risk a more difficult question. Do you understand about secondary and tertiary deaths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
singe Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Magic Mikey said: No then. I cannot believe after the events of this year anyone can say: "It is simply not a dangerous disease for the overwhelming majority of the population." I'm going to risk a more difficult question. Do you understand about secondary and tertiary deaths? Public Service Announcement: Covid-19 is lethal, pass it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzell54 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, singe said: Public Service Announcement: Covid-19 is lethal, pass it on. For those that die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackey Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 2 hours ago, kowenicki said: ...More recent stats prove... Cool - can you provide them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
singe Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 49 minutes ago, frizzell54 said: For those that die. Who do they get it from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowenicki Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Ackey said: Cool - can you provide them? Plenty available via ONS etc. Knock yourself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowenicki Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 4 hours ago, singe said: Wait, so everyone that died of Covid was over the average age lif expectancy, should have been dead aleady, and Covid kept them alive? Are you disputing the stat? Or just being a smart arse as usual? Have a good weekend. I’m away for a few days on a city break enjoying bars and restaurants... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
singe Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 minute ago, kowenicki said: Are you disputing the stat? Or just being a smart arse as usual? Have a good weekend. I’m away for a few days on a city break enjoying bars and restaurants... I'd have expected nothing less of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al_bro Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 54 minutes ago, kowenicki said: Are you disputing the stat? Or just being a smart arse as usual? Have a good weekend. I’m away for a few days on a city break enjoying bars and restaurants... Have you had it yet? If not I hope it doesn't put you in hospital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rudemedic Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 On 8/27/2020 at 6:18 PM, al_bro said: The man in Hong Kong who got the virus a second time, didn't know he had it. He was given a temperature check at the airport, which was higher than normal so he was given a test. It doesn't necessarily mean it was a different strain, but whatever it was the antibodies he made when he was infected back in April, were fighting off this re-infection. I suppose the main problem is the fact that he could spread the virus, by not knowing that he had been re-infected. From what I read they seemed to think it was a different strain. Unfortunately this is worse news. Especially the last sentence in the abstract (picture in the tweet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzell54 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 7 hours ago, singe said: Who do they get it from? Must from those who are now dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneSizeFitz Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 On 8/28/2020 at 9:18 AM, kowenicki said: Well... you can worry if you like. Many people are. More recent stats prove something very clearly. It almost exclusively attacks the very old or those with existing conditions. In Scotland the average age of a Covid death is OLDER than average life expectancy! It is simply not a dangerous disease for the overwhelming majority of the population. Sure that's of great comfort to the families of the 40,000+ who've died in the UK already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al_bro Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 On 8/28/2020 at 9:18 AM, kowenicki said: Well... you can worry if you like. Many people are. More recent stats prove something very clearly. It almost exclusively attacks the very old or those with existing conditions. In Scotland the average age of a Covid death is OLDER than average life expectancy! It is simply not a dangerous disease for the overwhelming majority of the population. The man in Nevada, above, was only 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Behind Closed Doors Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Can I try a bit of amateur empirical research on the understanding of the “ Rule of 6 “ which Mr Hancock says is simple and straightforward what are colleagues understanding of the scenario below? i can go to the pub with 5 mates ( if I had 5!!)....so far so good. Can 1 of the group then leave after half an hour and go to another pub and meet with a different set of 5 mates ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaddyexile84 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Behind Closed Doors said: Can I try a bit of amateur empirical research on the understanding of the “ Rule of 6 “ which Mr Hancock says is simple and straightforward what are colleagues understanding of the scenario below? i can go to the pub with 5 mates ( if I had 5!!)....so far so good. Can 1 of the group then leave after half an hour and go to another pub and meet with a different set of 5 mates ? Exactly the hole in the argument I found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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