Official COVID-19 megathread

[al_bro]

There's a new treatment of artificial antibodies being trialed on 2000 people in UK hospitals.

[fleetwood Blue]

Hancocks statement lastweek “dont kill granny, stay away from the elderly to protect them”

Hancock today “ grandparents are exempt from local lockdowns if they are needed for childcare reasons”

[BP1960]

Will our players have to isolate?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54237123

[Dave_Og]

31 minutes ago, fleetwood Blue said:

Hancocks statement lastweek “dont kill granny, stay away from the elderly to protect them”

Hancock today “ grandparents are exempt from local lockdowns if they are needed for childcare reasons”

It's a bit different if it's, sayy, students who've been 'mingling' to babies who haven't been outside their cots. 

[al_bro]

38 minutes ago, BP1960 said:

Will our players have to isolate?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54237123

We'll struggle to put a team out if we have problems.

[Chaddyexile84]

Just now, al_bro said:

We'll struggle to put a team out if we have problems.

Dont think we’ve put one out last 3 games so shouldn’t affect us too much 

[Behind Closed Doors]

1 hour ago, fleetwood Blue said:

Hancocks statement lastweek “dont kill granny, stay away from the elderly to protect them”

Hancock today “ grandparents are exempt from local lockdowns if they are needed for childcare reasons”

Not all grandparents are elderly

 

perhaps Wheater couldn’t play cos he couldn’t get childcare

[Hands on]

There are different views on the way forward.  There is the avoid catching and passing it on at any cost approach that looks like being adopted more rigorously this week notwithstanding the deaths, deprivation and mental health issues it causes BUT there is also the time has come for us to accept that the virus isn't going to go away and we have to learn how to live with it approach.

 

I say adopting the current approach more rigorously but my feeling is that our Government has now lost the consent of the people for this as 'the people' of Oldham have clearly demonstrated by not doing what they have been asked to do with 280 'positive' tests in the week to 17th September.

 

I will accept that much was learnt by our 'saved' NHS during the first peak but as we are beginning to see any lives 'saved' by the lock down will be outstripped by lives lost when the NHS was paralysed by the approach they were persuaded to adopt and as a consequence largely gave up on the day job of saving lives by neglecting cancer, CHD etc etc.  [I hasten to add that I am not criticising the people who work in the NHS but rather the political decisions which put so much focus on and fear of the coronavirus].

 

I believe we have to learn to live with Covid.  It is here to stay.  A vaccine that works for all those people with underlying health conditions would be wonderful but I don't believe it.  We have not defeated Influenza and Covid will be no different.

 

The whole basis of the current approach is a test which produces both false negatives and false positives.  The swab approach works well under laboratory conditions but it doesn't work in the real world particularly when you ask people to swab themselves - at best it is only 80% accurate.  Swab tests are notorious for producing false positives - I've seen rates of 0.4% suggested for Covid.  Even if the false positive rate is only 0.1% and you tested everyone in Oldham next week you would get 230 false positive results.  [False positives could be simply identified by testing all positive cases a second time if the test didn't produce so many false negatives - it isn't fit for purpose and makes test and trace a pointless exercise which is why it hasn't worked].

 

So the choice is more restrictions and probably bigger fines or, now that we understand what it does and to whom, putting our effort into helping the vulnerable whilst allowing everyone else to get on with their lives.

 

 

[Pidge]

Looks like there will be no crowds at matches during October!

Its hard to believe league one and two can survive.

[TheBigDog]

8 hours ago, Hands on said:

as 'the people' of Oldham have clearly demonstrated by not doing what they have been asked to do 

 

Replace ‘Oldham’ with any number of other geographical locations and there’s the problem.

 

The reason the virus is on the rise again is that people are not doing or have stopped doing what they have been advised to do.

[singe]

9 hours ago, Hands on said:

There are different views on the way forward.  There is the avoid catching and passing it on at any cost approach that looks like being adopted more rigorously this week notwithstanding the deaths, deprivation and mental health issues it causes BUT there is also the time has come for us to accept that the virus isn't going to go away and we have to learn how to live with it approach.

 

I say adopting the current approach more rigorously but my feeling is that our Government has now lost the consent of the people for this as 'the people' of Oldham have clearly demonstrated by not doing what they have been asked to do with 280 'positive' tests in the week to 17th September.

 

I will accept that much was learnt by our 'saved' NHS during the first peak but as we are beginning to see any lives 'saved' by the lock down will be outstripped by lives lost when the NHS was paralysed by the approach they were persuaded to adopt and as a consequence largely gave up on the day job of saving lives by neglecting cancer, CHD etc etc.  [I hasten to add that I am not criticising the people who work in the NHS but rather the political decisions which put so much focus on and fear of the coronavirus].

 

I believe we have to learn to live with Covid.  It is here to stay.  A vaccine that works for all those people with underlying health conditions would be wonderful but I don't believe it.  We have not defeated Influenza and Covid will be no different.

 

The whole basis of the current approach is a test which produces both false negatives and false positives.  The swab approach works well under laboratory conditions but it doesn't work in the real world particularly when you ask people to swab themselves - at best it is only 80% accurate.  Swab tests are notorious for producing false positives - I've seen rates of 0.4% suggested for Covid.  Even if the false positive rate is only 0.1% and you tested everyone in Oldham next week you would get 230 false positive results.  [False positives could be simply identified by testing all positive cases a second time if the test didn't produce so many false negatives - it isn't fit for purpose and makes test and trace a pointless exercise which is why it hasn't worked].

 

So the choice is more restrictions and probably bigger fines or, now that we understand what it does and to whom, putting our effort into helping the vulnerable whilst allowing everyone else to get on with their lives.

 

 

Some very valid points.

One aspect to pick up on is that we have an annual flu vaccine, and  as you point out the many similarities, we may  end up with an annual Covid vaccine. But the simple fact is we could massively reduce flu deaths by a proper comprensive flu program and succesive Governments have taken a half arsed approach to this. And this year was a chance to massively reduce flu, and nothing has been done.

My son got a strain at school, 10 of his class were out last week, with  supposed Covid containment in place. I then got it. Loads of his friends in different schools got it, because the buses are not operating any social distancing.

We have a sllghtly different system with Grammar schols, so there is a lot more bus travel here and many taking 45mins-1 hr bus journeys. The local MP said there would be extra buses to help social distancing. Day 2, the 2nd bus "broke down"  everyone kicked off, it then drove off! Neve seen again. The home bus is a single decker with load standing. The schools are supposed to operate in yea bubbles, but it's all being undone on the buses. 

 

As so often, it's not joined up.

[Matt]

45 minutes ago, TheBigDog said:

The reason the virus is on the rise again is that people are not doing or have stopped doing what they have been advised to do.

 

I'm wearing a mask whenever I need to, and feel the need to, cleaning hands when I enter and leave public places, distancing 2m without mask, 1m with. From what I know, I guess these are the best ways for me to take as much personal responsibility to protect myself, my family and other people in the community. I'm also doing it because I have absolutely no trust in the Government to get it right.

[nzlatic]

10 minutes ago, Matt said:

 

I'm wearing a mask whenever I need to, and feel the need to, cleaning hands when I enter and leave public places, distancing 2m without mask, 1m with. From what I know, I guess these are the best ways for me to take as much personal responsibility to protect myself, my family and other people in the community. I'm also doing it because I have absolutely no trust in the Government to get it right.

Same here.  I have zero faith in a government that reacts to the latest headline rather than showing strong and decisive strategy and leadership.  My family and I do pretty much the same to minimise the chance of catching or spreading it, irrespective of what the latest government advice is.

 

And there lies the problem really - I'm doing my own thing, and rightly or wrongly, I think I'm doing the best I can to reduce the chance of the disease spreading.  But other people who think it won't affect them, or isn't serious or doesn't even exist will also be doing their own thing.  The government has no control over the public and it will cost more lives over the next few months.

[Behind Closed Doors]

35 minutes ago, Matt said:

 

I'm wearing a mask whenever I need to, and feel the need to, cleaning hands when I enter and leave public places, distancing 2m without mask, 1m with. From what I know, I guess these are the best ways for me to take as much personal responsibility to protect myself, my family and other people in the community. I'm also doing it because I have absolutely no trust in the Government to get it right.

So in essence you are doing exactly what the govt guidelines say?

[Dave_Og]

Much though the government has cocked up most of what it has done I'm not sure it makes a huge amount of difference what they do. 

[League one forever]

6 minutes ago, Behind Closed Doors said:

So in essence you are doing exactly what the govt guidelines say?

[LaticMark]

2 hours ago, Pidge said:

Looks like there will be no crowds at matches during October!

Its hard to believe league one and two can survive.

 

Now confirmed. "Plans for fans to return to watch live sport events in England from 1 October will not go ahead, says cabinet office minister Michael Gove."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/54246745

[Matt]

21 minutes ago, Behind Closed Doors said:

So in essence you are doing exactly what the govt guidelines say?

 

Yep, those are the guidelines. What the Government have failed to do is keep the pressure on, lead by example, reinforce these messages with positive leadership, and help reduce the transmission by introducing stupid guideline relaxation gimmicks like the 'get back to the office' and 'eat out to help out'. Pubs are still open? 10pm curfew? Crackers.

[Bobledgersheart]

I fail to see what the 10pm curfew will achieve.

Surely it encourages people to carry on "drinking parties" at home, when social distancing would be ignored, either after or instead of continuing in the pub. 

 

If a curfew is deemed necessary a midnight one would have been more practicable for pubs and especially for eating places to give a chance of 2 sittings each evening.

 

 

[Barry Bosnian]

4 hours ago, Matt said:

 

Yep, those are the guidelines. What the Government have failed to do is keep the pressure on, lead by example, reinforce these messages with positive leadership, and help reduce the transmission by introducing stupid guideline relaxation gimmicks like the 'get back to the office' and 'eat out to help out'. Pubs are still open? 10pm curfew? Crackers.

'Eat out to help out' was a crazy idea, lets fill the pubs up 3 days a week by offering cut-price food. Now a 10pm curfew which just means people will go out an hour earlier, it's nonsense.

[Bobledgersheart]

 

38 minutes ago, Barry Bosnian said:

'Eat out to help out' was a crazy idea, lets fill the pubs up 3 days a week by offering cut-price food. Now a 10pm curfew which just means people will go out an hour earlier, it's nonsense.

I wonder if ALMLBO are on Boris's SAGE committee ?

[deyres42]

2 hours ago, Bobledgersheart said:

I fail to see what the 10pm curfew will achieve.

Surely it encourages people to carry on "drinking parties" at home, when social distancing would be ignored, either after or instead of continuing in the pub. 

 

If a curfew is deemed necessary a midnight one would have been more practicable for pubs and especially for eating places to give a chance of 2 sittings each evening.

 

 

I think it is a shot across the bows for establishments and people to change their behaviours or else it is back into full lockdown.

[Chaddyexile84]

8 minutes ago, deyres42 said:

I think it is a shot across the bows for establishments and people to change their behaviours or else it is back into full lockdown.

I think they would struggle to enforce a full lockdown again.  Rightly or wrongly people are pissed off at the clear as mud messages, just this morning Michael Gove said work from home if you can but if you have a COVID secure workplace go” then at 12:30 Boris just says “if you can work from home” left hand just isn’t speaking to right 

[BP1960]

Interesting comment from an Orient fan.

I wonder if our Trust could find out if any Latics players were tested prior to this game.

 

'I reckon we caught it at Oldham as the players felt ill after that game. There is not regular testing in League 2 so I wouldn’t be surprised if it has spread across the whole league already'.

[frizzell54]

17 hours ago, Hands on said:

 

 

The whole basis of the current approach is a test which produces both false negatives and false positives.  The swab approach works well under laboratory conditions but it doesn't work in the real world particularly when you ask people to swab themselves - at best it is only 80% accurate.  Swab tests are notorious for producing false positives - I've seen rates of 0.4% suggested for Covid.  Even if the false positive rate is only 0.1% and you tested everyone in Oldham next week you would get 230 false positive results.  [False positives could be simply identified by testing all positive cases a second time if the test didn't produce so many false negatives - it isn't fit for purpose and makes test and trace a pointless exercise which is why it hasn't worked].

 

So the choice is more restrictions and probably bigger fines or, now that we understand what it does and to whom, putting our effort into helping the vulnerable whilst allowing everyone else to get on with their lives.

 

 

 

Population of Oldham: 236155, Percentage of population estimated to have COVI (4 -September 2020): 0.11%

 

Therefore expected Positives in Oldham = 260

 

False positives if whole population tested = 0.4% of 236155 = 944

 

So 260 True positive plus  944 false positive give total of around 1200 which is the figure touted.

 

 

So all positives require to be repeated or matched with symptoms and contact.

 

If you don't believe this refer to any good statistical source on testing an diagnosis.  It's all to do with how prior probability affects the post probability.

 

This is the nature of testing.  Agree the test is not fit for the purpose for which it is being used.  

 

So the government is deliberately deceiving the people or they just stupid and  innumerate.