Official COVID-19 megathread

[underdog]

9 hours ago, TheBigDog said:

 

Now there’s an idea...

Apparently parents are for life and not just for Xmas...like wheeling them out with the Xmas deccies from under the stairs..hahah

[Worcester Owl]

16 hours ago, disjointed said:

It was obvious what would happen, I agree education is a priority but you put hundreds or even thousands of schoolchildren and young adults together you are now seeing the results, a high percentage of these people could have been home educated via on line classes and lectures. I have said it before incompetent government of which the head is a bumbling glory seeking tosser. 

It's a question of balance. Until the virus is eliminated, all societies are walking a tightrope. If re-opening schools means we have to continue to expect some restrictions on our personal freedom to save lives, then so be it.

 

As for home schooling, that has massively set back years of work to close the attainment gap between rich and poor kids. Private schools had the resources in lockdown to continue to educate their students at a high level, more so than state schools. Poor families with at most 1 PC/laptop/tablet between 2-4 children found home schooling far more difficult.

 

Schools should never have been closed in the first place and I applaud the decision to re-open them.

[disjointed]

3 minutes ago, Worcester Owl said:

It's a question of balance. Until the virus is eliminated, all societies are walking a tightrope. If re-opening schools means we have to continue to expect some restrictions on our personal freedom to save lives, then so be it.

 

As for home schooling, that has massively set back years of work to close the attainment gap between rich and poor kids. Private schools had the resources in lockdown to continue to educate their students at a high level, more so than state schools. Poor families with at most 1 PC/laptop/tablet between 2-4 children found home schooling far more difficult.

 

Schools should never have been closed in the first place and I applaud the decision to re-open them.

It would have been possible to open the schools to those that didn't have access to computers etc, the numbers in schools would have been much more manageable, I live near 3 schools one of which is a secondary, gangs of 10 kids walking out at school finishing time doing what they would normally do. You just can't stop it with the numbers that are attending. 

[Longlostfan]

New Zealand is perhaps the stand out example of a timely thought through response with clear calm leadership which has minimised the health impact. Though they too will have paid an economic cost and a social one too.

It was obviously easier for a remote island nation to self isolate than one with so many links and porous borders- in normal times how many international flights landed in New Zealand per day compared to the UK?

The challenge with the closed borders approach is that at some point you have to open the doors. Maybe the arrival of vaccines will make that possible (with a continued check and quarantine approach if you don't trust some countries vaccines). However it was far from certain that there would be a effective vaccine so quickly when they closed the doors. For now at least it looks like they may have got it right.

 

[Matt]

1 hour ago, Longlostfan said:

New Zealand is perhaps the stand out example...

 

 

Maybe Taiwan also.

[Ritchierich]

The global data continues to tell us that this CoronaVirus is a dangerous threat to a fairly specific group.... Older people and those with certain co-morbidities, in that respect it is no different to any other bad strain of seasonal flu although clearly it is on the next level. 

 

I believe, once it became clear this was the case (which was late spring I imagine) we should have focused all our efforts on protecting and treating those groups whilst allowing the rest of us to continue a life closer to normal... remember we were told restrictions were aimed at protecting the NHS.... we did that and it has not been close to being overwhelmed and nor is it now, the nightingale hospitals are being shut and were barely used

 

The cure has become far worse than the desease in my view and the government has become a prisoner of it' own fear and propaganda 

 

We are becoming unthinking lemmings following ever more draconian laws and government directives and it seems nobody is prepared to challenge the scientists despite the data which surely proves this virus is barely a threat to 99% of people... the real threat is the economic and social ruin so many are now facing

[petera1]

1 minute ago, Ritchierich said:

The global data continues to tell us that this CoronaVirus is a dangerous threat to a fairly specific group.... Older people and those with certain co-morbidities, in that respect it is no different to any other bad strain of seasonal flu although clearly it is on the next level. 

 

I believe, once it became clear this was the case (which was late spring I imagine) we should have focused all our efforts on protecting and treating those groups whilst allowing the rest of us to continue a life closer to normal... remember we were told restrictions were aimed at protecting the NHS.... we did that and it has not been close to being overwhelmed and nor is it now, the nightingale hospitals are being shut and were barely used

 

The cure has become far worse than the desease in my view and the government has become a prisoner of it' own fear and propaganda 

 

We are becoming unthinking lemmings following ever more draconian laws and government directives and it seems nobody is prepared to challenge the scientists despite the data which surely proves this virus is barely a threat to 99% of people... the real threat is the economic and social ruin so many are now facing

What an excellent summary, couldn't agree more

[Bobledgersheart]

The problem is how do we separate those most at risk from the rest of the population ?

Which leads us on to what are the common denominators of the worst affected areas ?  

[Monty Burns]

55 minutes ago, Matt said:

 

Maybe Taiwan also.

Mongolia for me. Especially given its geolocation and massive Chinese border.

[Monty Burns]

7 minutes ago, Bobledgersheart said:

The problem is how do we separate those most at risk from the rest of the population ?

Which leads us on to what are the common denominators of the worst affected areas ?  

Careful. Meerkats popping up here hoping to chuck a racism bomb.

[Matt]

5 hours ago, Ritchierich said:

The global data continues to tell us that this CoronaVirus is a dangerous threat to a fairly specific group.... Older people and those with certain co-morbidities, in that respect it is no different to any other bad strain of seasonal flu although clearly it is on the next level. 

 

I believe, once it became clear this was the case (which was late spring I imagine) we should have focused all our efforts on protecting and treating those groups whilst allowing the rest of us to continue a life closer to normal... remember we were told restrictions were aimed at protecting the NHS.... we did that and it has not been close to being overwhelmed and nor is it now, the nightingale hospitals are being shut and were barely used

 

The cure has become far worse than the desease in my view and the government has become a prisoner of it' own fear and propaganda 

 

We are becoming unthinking lemmings following ever more draconian laws and government directives and it seems nobody is prepared to challenge the scientists despite the data which surely proves this virus is barely a threat to 99% of people... the real threat is the economic and social ruin so many are now facing

 

Thanks for the post, however I'd like to discuss one point a bit more. I'm sorry if you know all of this... 

 

With science - science challenges science. That's the whole point of peer reviewed papers. Wherever possible, there is always independent confirmation of scientific claims after they've been repeatedly proven to be of sound basis. Scientists must encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view. Arguments from authority carry little weight, for instance our Governments have made mistakes (more so in America) in the past and probably will do in the future, but in science there are no authorities; at top level, there are experts and peers.

 

If there is a scientific claim or theory, it wont' be supported straight away - in fact I think I'm correct is saying that it's always false until the results are replicated and checked many, many times. Just because a handful of scientists make a claim, it doesn't make it so. I could rabbit on about Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit all day, it's a chapter in his book The Demon Haunted World - the book is great, however it's worth just reading that chapter.

 

I think we should be challenging the news media more than the science, and that is not saying that all reporters are rubbish, a great deal of them are hard-working investigative journos that strive for the truth (see the Paul Foot awards). However, there are equally a large amount of client journalists and 'click bait' hacks who will just fire out carefully planned articles that will press the rage buttons of their target readership = obviously it makes more money for them. So many opinion pieces are treated as news these days; America are having a really hard time of it - Fox was the go to for some, but when Fox couldn't carry on with the pro-hard right Trump opinion pieces any more - their supporters and viewers took to OAN and Newsmax both aligned further right that Fox - effectively reinforcing their viewers beliefs, and closing themselves off in a silo of rhetoric and hard advocacy.

 

Let's push back on the opinion, and root out the true investigative journos.

 

The NHS; I'll just say that my wife has told me about what happens on a COVID ward - they are stretched - they are under immense pressure. I'll leave it at that. The Nightingales are supplied with staff from hospitals - the hospitals don't have any spare staff - therefore there are no staff for the Nightingales. Somebody made a huge amount of money on that project, and they are a complete waste of space.

 

[Bobledgersheart]

1 hour ago, Monty Burns said:

Careful. Meerkats popping up here hoping to chuck a racism bomb.

Know what you're saying but turning a blind eye to the obvious won't cure the pandemic.

Of course other socio-economic problems contribute to all communities' susceptibility probably to a greater degree so no blame can be justly apportioned to one specific reason but ignoring the obvious won't make it disappear

I'd agree that universities halls of residence opening was a mistake as expecting teenagers to behave responsibly on their first time away from home was naive in extreme at any time.

[trickyrickyholden]

22 hours ago, Matt said:

 

Thanks for the post, however I'd like to discuss one point a bit more. I'm sorry if you know all of this... 

 

With science - science challenges science. That's the whole point of peer reviewed papers. Wherever possible, there is always independent confirmation of scientific claims after they've been repeatedly proven to be of sound basis. Scientists must encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view. Arguments from authority carry little weight, for instance our Governments have made mistakes (more so in America) in the past and probably will do in the future, but in science there are no authorities; at top level, there are experts and peers.

 

If there is a scientific claim or theory, it wont' be supported straight away - in fact I think I'm correct is saying that it's always false until the results are replicated and checked many, many times. Just because a handful of scientists make a claim, it doesn't make it so. I could rabbit on about Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit all day, it's a chapter in his book The Demon Haunted World - the book is great, however it's worth just reading that chapter.

 

I think we should be challenging the news media more than the science, and that is not saying that all reporters are rubbish, a great deal of them are hard-working investigative journos that strive for the truth (see the Paul Foot awards). However, there are equally a large amount of client journalists and 'click bait' hacks who will just fire out carefully planned articles that will press the rage buttons of their target readership = obviously it makes more money for them. So many opinion pieces are treated as news these days; America are having a really hard time of it - Fox was the go to for some, but when Fox couldn't carry on with the pro-hard right Trump opinion pieces any more - their supporters and viewers took to OAN and Newsmax both aligned further right that Fox - effectively reinforcing their viewers beliefs, and closing themselves off in a silo of rhetoric and hard advocacy.

 

Let's push back on the opinion, and root out the true investigative journos.

 

The NHS; I'll just say that my wife has told me about what happens on a COVID ward - they are stretched - they are under immense pressure. I'll leave it at that. The Nightingales are supplied with staff from hospitals - the hospitals don't have any spare staff - therefore there are no staff for the Nightingales. Somebody made a huge amount of money on that project, and they are a complete waste of space.

 

I wish more people understood how science works. Not least because it illustrates why all the conspiracy theories are utter tosh. Things like "covid is made up" and "governments have a cure for cancer but they just use it for population control" and many others.

Science regulates itself very effectively.

You can't possibly influence all of the thousands of research groups around the world.

New "things" (like sars 2) take time to understand fully.

Then antivaxxers, not understanding why vaccine development usually takes many years (hint they are not waiting for people to grow an extra nipple after 5 years)

 

Find it all so frustrating.

 

 

[Longlostfan]

 

On 11/28/2020 at 10:21 AM, Matt said:

 

Maybe Taiwan also.

I'll give you that Matt but I think expectations of freedom/ government control are very different in Taiwan.

[al_bro]

The Manchester nightingale hospital is open and is being used for people recovering from Covid.

[rudemedic]

RE the Nightingale hospitals. They needed to use the one in London in the first wave quite a bit. The ones in Birmingham and Manchester were used a little. The one in Exeter wasn't used and I'm not sure about the one in Harrogate. 

 

London can staff theirs easily, as the NHS in London is well resourced, staff want to live there (or don't want to move away after going to uni) etc. That means London had the capacity to staff its Nightingale Hospital, because there is a large resource of doctors not actively employed by the NHS as well as all the other staff. The doctors work locums as will a lot of the nurses. 

 

Manchester and Birmingham have a little bit of spare capacity staff wise too, and I think Leeds might but I don't know. That being said the people in charge in Manchester made the decision to only use the Nightingale hospital for those recovering from Covid to free up hospital beds for those unwell with Covid. They did the same for the 2nd wave. 

 

I know there was a lot of talk about opening the Nightingale Hospital in Exeter for the 2nd wave, I'm unsure if they did, but if they didn't it was by a handful of patients. The one in Manchester is open and I think they've opened the one in Harrogate too. 

 

It's not the bed space that is the problem it's the staff. With schools remaining open during the 2nd wave it meant more staff who weren't infected had to remain home because their child had been a close contact of someone who was infected. A reminder that children of key workers were going into school during the first lockdown.

 

Sending children back to school was almost certainly the right thing to do. What probably should have happened was that the message around "Eat Out to help out" should have been tailored to reflect the inevitable rise in cases at schools for the 2 weeks before schools went back. Ditto for universities. 

 

I've seen lots of people rightly question why Manchester is in tier 3 when the R value for the NW is 0.8 to 1.1, but the R value for tier 2 London is 1.2 - 1.4. Unfortunately R number is most comparable to the third indicator for the tier system, the number of cases and the number of cases in over 60s are indicators 1 and 2. Having a low R number is vital to lower the tier and a high R number means you are more likely to move up a tier. But the mixed messaging over R numbers from a few months ago compared with now is an example of where the government has failed. 

 

FWIW the % of tests that are positive and the pressures on the NHS are indicators 4 and 5. That's good for Liverpool with its mass testing (indicator 4) and good for London and Oxbridge with their relatively well resourced NHS (indicator 5).

 

Furthermore although a lot of the measures (masks, social distancing, lockdown etc.) are bring used to combat COVID-19 its useful to remember that the same measures will be as effective if not more so against stuff like the flu. 

 

TLDR- The nightingale hospitals are and were used. Mixed messaging from the government hasn't helped and don't forget the benefits measures against COVID-19 have against similar airborne infections like flu. 

[disjointed]

11 hours ago, rudemedic said:

RE the Nightingale hospitals. They needed to use the one in London in the first wave quite a bit. The ones in Birmingham and Manchester were used a little. The one in Exeter wasn't used and I'm not sure about the one in Harrogate. 

 

London can staff theirs easily, as the NHS in London is well resourced, staff want to live there (or don't want to move away after going to uni) etc. That means London had the capacity to staff its Nightingale Hospital, because there is a large resource of doctors not actively employed by the NHS as well as all the other staff. The doctors work locums as will a lot of the nurses. 

 

Manchester and Birmingham have a little bit of spare capacity staff wise too, and I think Leeds might but I don't know. That being said the people in charge in Manchester made the decision to only use the Nightingale hospital for those recovering from Covid to free up hospital beds for those unwell with Covid. They did the same for the 2nd wave. 

 

I know there was a lot of talk about opening the Nightingale Hospital in Exeter for the 2nd wave, I'm unsure if they did, but if they didn't it was by a handful of patients. The one in Manchester is open and I think they've opened the one in Harrogate too. 

 

It's not the bed space that is the problem it's the staff. With schools remaining open during the 2nd wave it meant more staff who weren't infected had to remain home because their child had been a close contact of someone who was infected. A reminder that children of key workers were going into school during the first lockdown.

 

Sending children back to school was almost certainly the right thing to do. What probably should have happened was that the message around "Eat Out to help out" should have been tailored to reflect the inevitable rise in cases at schools for the 2 weeks before schools went back. Ditto for universities. 

 

I've seen lots of people rightly question why Manchester is in tier 3 when the R value for the NW is 0.8 to 1.1, but the R value for tier 2 London is 1.2 - 1.4. Unfortunately R number is most comparable to the third indicator for the tier system, the number of cases and the number of cases in over 60s are indicators 1 and 2. Having a low R number is vital to lower the tier and a high R number means you are more likely to move up a tier. But the mixed messaging over R numbers from a few months ago compared with now is an example of where the government has failed. 

 

FWIW the % of tests that are positive and the pressures on the NHS are indicators 4 and 5. That's good for Liverpool with its mass testing (indicator 4) and good for London and Oxbridge with their relatively well resourced NHS (indicator 5).

 

Furthermore although a lot of the measures (masks, social distancing, lockdown etc.) are bring used to combat COVID-19 its useful to remember that the same measures will be as effective if not more so against stuff like the flu. 

 

TLDR- The nightingale hospitals are and were used. Mixed messaging from the government hasn't helped and don't forget the benefits measures against COVID-19 have against similar airborne infections like flu. 

Thanks doc, I think it's pretty obvious that London is going to escape tier 3, that would never do. Also we will be stuck in the highest tier as long as they can feasibly get away with it, as punishment for Burnham standing up to the incompetent oaf. This covid thing is certainly being used to strengthen the north/south divide. 

[disjointed]

26 minutes ago, BP1960 said:

 

I think Bury spoiled it for Greater Manchester to go into tier 2 as their covid rates went up while others went down.

Might have been better to make it Borough by Borough.

 

The problem is that when you make it Borough to Borough it makes it easier for people to visit restaurants etc nearby whilst being in a tier 3.

[Bristolatic]

33 minutes ago, disjointed said:

The problem is that when you make it Borough to Borough it makes it easier for people to visit restaurants etc nearby whilst being in a tier 3.

Similar problem here. Bristol City Council has gone into tier 2, whilst we are still in tier 3 in South Gloucestershire. The boundary line is very blurred and a number of districts and postcodes (eg BS15, BS16) lie within both authorities.

 

So you could live right on the edge of an area in tier 3, but chance going to a restaurant, quite literally, 100 yards away that is in tier 2, but within the same postcode area. I'm sure this will apply to a number of areas throughout the land, so it's certainly not an exact science.

[kowenicki]

2 hours ago, BP1960 said:

 

I think Bury spoiled it for Greater Manchester to go into tier 2 as their covid rates went up while others went down.

Might have been better to make it Borough by Borough.

 

 

Really?

Most recently published numbers are (17th Dec):

Bury is down by 8%,

Rochdale is up 8%,

Oldham up 15%,

Salford up 14%

Trafford up 37%. 

 

Every Borough in Greater Manchester is below England average.

 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/coronavirus-latest-greater-manchester-infection-19479284

[Bobledgersheart]

Absolutely no chance of our (or anybody else's) tier lowering in the foreseeable future until the effect of the Christmas "truce" is visited upon us.

Maybe Easter at the earliest. 

[BP1960]

2 hours ago, disjointed said:

The problem is that when you make it Borough to Borough it makes it easier for people to visit restaurants etc nearby whilst being in a tier 3.

 

Good point.

[Worcester Owl]

On 12/15/2020 at 8:38 AM, disjointed said:

It is a fuckwit decision to relax the rules over Xmas. With this shower of shit running the country we will be in tier 3 for a while yet. 

Could be worse. Apart from the dread thought that comrade Corbyn would have been running the country into the ground, we've had the shining examples of Anderson in Liverpool and Burnham in Manchester to show how it's (not) done.

[kowenicki]

11 minutes ago, Worcester Owl said:

Could be worse. Apart from the dread thought that comrade Corbyn would have been running the country into the ground, we've had the shining examples of Anderson in Liverpool and Burnham in Manchester to show how it's (not) done.

 

You are forgetting THE best example... Labour Controlled Wales... what an absolute fuck up that is!   

[whittles left foot]

57 minutes ago, Worcester Owl said:

Could be worse. Apart from the dread thought that comrade Corbyn would have been running the country into the ground, we've had the shining examples of Anderson in Liverpool and Burnham in Manchester to show how it's (not) done.

Easy to say but has anybody in this country shown a way of how it's done? No.

Areas with lowest incidence are all low population areas.

At least Burnham has stood up for 'The North' by trying to get increased money to support local business whilst London merrily continued in Tier 2 and now it is suffering for that.

The North/South divide is alive and kicking despite what Boris and his sycophants tell you.