BPAS PODCAST: 16th Sept '24, S5E7: Reasons to be Cheerful

[BPAS]

After four consecutive draws, Latics clocked up their second away win of the season and moved back into the top seven, for what it's worth at the this stage of the season. Reasons to be cheerful? Absolutely.

 

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[TheBigDog]

Listening now - enjoyable podcast

 

Just about to start Latics Mind…

scored 0

[TheBigDog]

And forgot to add that this Wednesday’s phone-in guest is Gunnar Halle

[Lee Sinnott]

5 from 6 this week. Crazy amount of time spent working out the aggregate score from the fan guest, who otherwise was eloquent and had some good points...

[JoeP]

That Gunnar Halle goal was in a 3-1 FA cup win, if I remember rightly..

 

Hated Elm Park. We got relegated (2/4) there. Reading fans were always muppets aswell..

 

 

Edited September 16, 2024 by JoeP

[nzlatic]

9 minutes ago, Lee Sinnott said:

5 from 6 this week. Crazy amount of time spent working out the aggregate score from the fan guest, who otherwise was eloquent and had some good points...

Ironically, had he passed on that question instead, he probably would have scored more than zero.

[nzlatic]

That was a fun listen that. On the league table thing, I do think we can get too hung up on the points thing. It's not linear. If you need, say 2 points per game to win the league, you don't steadily get that over the 46 games. So the reaction by some to being behind the curve a bit over the first few games has been a bit extreme.

 

You wouldn't walk out of a 20/20 game after 5 overs if your team is a bit behind the run rate.

Edited September 16, 2024 by nzlatic

[Lee Sinnott]

10 minutes ago, JoeP said:

That Gunnar Halle goal was in a 3-1 FA cup win, if I remember rightly..

 

Hated Elm Park. We got relegated (2/4) there. Reading fans were always muppets aswell..

 

 

Thought it was a 2-1 defeat near the end of the season. Reading keeper (might have been Hislop) went walkabout and Halle passed into an open goal from 40 yards. Cup game was earlier in that season...

Edited September 16, 2024 by Lee Sinnott

[oafcmetty]

31 minutes ago, nzlatic said:

That was a fun listen that. On the league table thing, I do think we can get too hung up on the points thing. It's not linear. If you need, say 2 points per game to win the league, you don't steadily get that over the 46 games. So the reaction by some to being behind the curve a bit over the first few games has been a bit extreme.

 

You wouldn't walk out of a 20/20 game after 5 overs if your team is a bit behind the run rate.

Problem is, the further behind the "rate" you get, the harder it is to catch up. Every point is a match you must then win to recover. So 3 points behind (i.e. 17 after 10 games) means you need to win 3 on the bounce to get back to par (26 after 13). Not a huge problem early doors, but if you're 10 behind after 30, you're in the shit.

[nzlatic]

4 minutes ago, oafcmetty said:

Problem is, the further behind the "rate" you get, the harder it is to catch up. Every point is a match you must then win to recover. So 3 points behind (i.e. 17 after 10 games) means you need to win 3 on the bounce to get back to par (26 after 13). Not a huge problem early doors, but if you're 10 behind after 30, you're in the shit.

Absolutely. You might walk out of the 20/20 if you're miles behind the rate after 15 overs. But not if you're slightly behind after 5. 

 

I guess my point is that it's not linear, so being slightly behind the rate after 9 games is not proof that you won't catch up. But yeah, if you're a long way back after 30 games then that's a different beast altogether. Unless you're donny rovers and decide to win 10 games on the trot!

[yarddog73]

1 hour ago, nzlatic said:

That was a fun listen that. On the league table thing, I do think we can get too hung up on the points thing. It's not linear. If you need, say 2 points per game to win the league, you don't steadily get that over the 46 games. So the reaction by some to being behind the curve a bit over the first few games has been a bit extreme.

 

You wouldn't walk out of a 20/20 game after 5 overs if your team is a bit behind the run rate.

These points we've given away now will likely see us in the playoffs instead of pushing for the title, nobody can afford to give away 6 or 8 cheap winnable points over the first 10 games and I'd suggest that's what we will be likely to do. It doesn't mean we can't do it but it makes it more difficult, it's not like we've really played anybody yet either other than maybe Gateshead and I don't think they'll be much higher than about 7th. 

 

Again Mellon referenced Southend and Aldershot as teams who he thinks will be up there, Southend look way off it gettng beat at home again Saturday and Aldershot who battered us have since been comprehensively beat by Dale, Tamworth and scraped draws against the mighty Boston (18th) and Ebbsfleet (24th).

 

I think we'll have a better idea where we are at after our next two games, Yeovil will come for a 0-0 and try and frustrate and FG will be the first proper team we've faced, how we deal with those two will prove where we are at.

 

 

Edited September 16, 2024 by yarddog73

[nzlatic]

6 minutes ago, yarddog73 said:

These points we've given away now will likely see us in the playoffs instead of pushing for the title, nobody can afford to give away 6 or 8 cheap winnable points over the first 10 games and I'd suggest that's what we will be likely to do. It doesn't mean we can't do it but it makes it more difficult, it's not like we've really played anybody yet either other than maybe Gateshead and I don't think they'll be much higher than about 7th. 

 

Again Mellon referenced Southend and Aldershot as teams who he thinks will be up there, Southend look way off it getying beat at home again Saturday and Aldershot who battered us have since been comprehensively beat by Dale, Tamworth and scraped draws against the mighty Boston (18th) and Ebbsfleet (24th).

It might do and it might not. Depends on lots of things, how many points will be needed to win the league for starters. In the last 2 seasons, the winners got off to flyers. In 2021/22, Stockport had 14 points after 9 games and ended with 94.

 

I agree, I think it's more likely we'll be competing for a play off spot than the title. And of course, whenever you drop points you make it harder for yourself. But it's not fatal at this stage like some seem to think it is. 

[JoeP]

29 minutes ago, nzlatic said:

Absolutely. You might walk out of the 20/20 if you're miles behind the rate after 15 overs. But not if you're slightly behind after 5. 

 

I guess my point is that it's not linear, so being slightly behind the rate after 9 games is not proof that you won't catch up. But yeah, if you're a long way back after 30 games then that's a different beast altogether. Unless you're donny rovers and decide to win 10 games on the trot!

 

I think many look at the evidence in front of them - under Mellon and the club's general direction over the last 30 odd years - and fairly question the likelihood of us catching up.  Unreasonable possibly, but I can see why some might think they've seen this show before and react early to what they're seeing...

[League one forever]

People are always wise after the event. . . 
 

We’ve got a much needed result, which as always changes the complexion of the start or run of games. The same thing will happen this Saturday. Win and 17 points in the first ten looks pretty decent. Lose and 14 after 10 is mediocre.
 

The up and down reactive nature is also indicative of the expectations set by the club. The aim is promotion, not a bit better than last season.
 

People will react to the results- in the likelihood of expectations being met or not. 

[JoeP]

Oh and Yeovil's a bloody horrible away trip...

[Frankly Mr Shankly]

2 minutes ago, JoeP said:

Oh and Yeovil's a bloody horrible away trip...

 

Even worse when the driver of a coach you go on has a meltdown when you're sown there and declares it a dry coach for the return journey.

[oafc1955]

8 minutes ago, League one forever said:

People are always wise after the event. . . 
 

We’ve got a much needed result, which as always changes the complexion of the start or run of games. The same thing will happen this Saturday. Win and 17 points in the first ten looks pretty decent. Lose and 14 after 10 is mediocre.
 

The up and down reactive nature is also indicative of the expectations set by the club. The aim is promotion, not a bit better than last season.
 

People will react to the results- in the likelihood of expectations being met or not. 

As long as we keep improving (which I think we will) and are the best we can be come May then a promotion via the playoffs, would financially, be our best possible route.

[nzlatic]

24 minutes ago, JoeP said:

 

I think many look at the evidence in front of them - under Mellon and the club's general direction over the last 30 odd years - and fairly question the likelihood of us catching up.  Unreasonable possibly, but I can see why some might think they've seen this show before and react early to what they're seeing...

We all interpret "evidence" differently. I think there's been a big change for the better this season, but others don't.

 

I've said before how as a fan base we've been so conditioned to failure and disappointment that we look for signs of it at all times. For example these draws are taken by some to confirm that Mellon is no good, the season is fucked, we're going nowhere etc. And it's difficult to argue against that when that's all that's happened to us for 30 years!  I don't think that attitude will change until something good finally happens.

[nzlatic]

12 minutes ago, JoeP said:

Oh and Yeovil's a bloody horrible away trip...

Done it once and even starting down south it was horrible enough. Fair play to those doing it from up north!

[JoeP]

3 minutes ago, nzlatic said:

Done it once and even starting down south it was horrible enough. Fair play to those doing it from up north!

 

The essentials for a good away day are ground, pubs and railway station within a stone's throw of each other.  Yeovil ticks none of those boxes...

[Bobledgersheart]

3 minutes ago, nzlatic said:

Done it once and even starting down south it was horrible enough. Fair play to those doing it from up north!

Don't do aways but did a couple of years ago at Yeovil by way of staying in the Spoons at Warminster Friday and Saturday.

 

Note : Warminster is stone dead and we struggled to find a pub showing Arsenal and Southampton? on Friday !

[GlossopLatic]

7 minutes ago, JoeP said:

 

The essentials for a good away day are ground, pubs and railway station within a stone's throw of each other.  Yeovil ticks none of those boxes...

 

Unfortunately neither does Boundary Park.

[JoeP]

Just now, GlossopLatic said:

 

Unfortunately neither does Boundary Park.

 

It's got the pubs but yes, for an away fan on public transport I've always thought it would be one of the less attractive fixtures..

[yarddog73]

45 minutes ago, JoeP said:

 

The essentials for a good away day are ground, pubs and railway station within a stone's throw of each other.  Yeovil ticks none of those boxes...

Forest Green is as equally uninspiring. 

[Littlemoor Lad]

1 hour ago, JoeP said:

Oh and Yeovil's a bloody horrible away trip...

Good job you won't be making it then