Interesting posts on 606 (BBC) in two parts.
Right Statto head on - a purely objective view on promotion, from one of the over-zealous Oldham Fans...
I have looked at the past 5 years League tables, and calculated the average number of points needed to be placed in the top 6 - this works out thus (are you all excited....)
1st - 92pts (Highest 100, Lowest 82)
2nd - 83pts (Highest 86, Lowest 79)
3rd - 81pts
4th - 78pts
5th - 76pts
6th - 75pts (Highest 81, lowest 71)
Soooo, what does that mean for the top 8 contenders? Well, the 2 most consitent boundaries over the 5 years have been 83pts for promotion (couldnt give a monkeys about winning the league), and 75 points for the Playoffs (take out the freakish 2003 with Wigan and the top 6 battering all) and these are almost exact...
Right then, so 1 by 1...
Oldham & Scunny - 58 pts, 15 games left
Promotion - 1.6ptspergame. 8/9 wins (56%). PO's -1.1ppg,6 Wins(40%)
Notts Forest - 56 pts, 15 Games Left
Promotion - 1.8 ppg, 9 wins.(60%) PO's - 1.25ppg, 7 wins(47%)
Yeovil - 54 pts, 15 Games Left
Promotion - 1.9ppg, 10 wins.(66%) PO's - 1.4ppg, 7/8 wins(50%)
Brizzle City - 53 pts, 15 games Left
Promotion - 2ppg, 10 wins,(66%) PO's - 1.5ppg, 7/8 wins(50%)
Trannies - 49pts, 14 Games left
Promotion - 2.4ppg, 11/12 wins(82%) - PO's 1.9ppg 9/10 wins(67%)
Swans - 47 Pts, 15 Games Left
Promotion - 2.4ppg - 12 Wins(80%) - PO's 1.9ppg(66%) - 10 Wins (win the extra game as Tranmere have the points on the board)
Blackpool - 47 Points, 17 Games Left
Promotion - 2.1ppg, 12 wins(70%) - PO's 1.6ppg 9 wins.(53%)
Doncaster - 46 pts, 16 games left
Promotion - 2.3ppg - 12/13 wins(78%) - PO's 1.8ppg, 10 Wins(63%)
So that means...
1. Realisticaly - Only Oldham, Scunthorpe, Forest, Yeovil, Bristol can win automatic promotion (more than 2pts a game is unrealistic)
2. Oldham, Scunthorpe & Forest will be in the top 6.
3. Tranmere will definitely miss out on everything..
4. Everyone needs to win lots.