jimsleftfoot Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 The same could also be said for relocating your business right on the doorstep of your bigger stronger competitor too! I do think thats quite valid but I also think if we don't move we will still be on the doorstep on our stronger bigger competitor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corporal_Jones Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 Perhaps the guy who wrote the article agrees with the clubs thinking on this matter in which case it deserves to be repeated in the same manner as any other anti-failsworth article/stories. Perhaps he does. It's still naive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaticMark Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 It's good to read a positive article about the new stadium in The Chron for a change, and supported with some facts and statistics. This part compensates for the anti-Latics propaganda that has appeared in the news pages over recent weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corporal_Jones Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 (edited) It's good to read a positive article about the new stadium in The Chron for a change, and supported with some facts and statistics. This part compensates for the anti-Latics propaganda that has appeared in the news pages over recent weeks. Pity the facts and statistics are, for the most part, meaningless. Edited November 27, 2009 by Corporal_Jones Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 Fantastic advice to any business: “You might be making losses year on year but instead of doing something about it, wait and hope that things get better”. My advice to Oldham Athletic as a business would be that in a contracting market, the first thing you need to do is ensure you retain your current customer base. Making sweeping changes in such an economic climate should be viewed as a high risk strategy. Now of course, the risk:reward rules will still apply (the bigger the risk the bigger the potential reward), but it should also be bourne in mind that the normal ratio that you would expect to apply to your considerations will not necessarily apply at such times. I would also advise them that while the past cannot always be replied upon to predict the future, it would be fair to say that the land at Boundary Park has for many many years been more valuable than the land earmarked for the development in Failsworth and this is likely to be the case in the future as while the actual value may change, the differencial between the two vlaues is likely to be relatively constant (unless of course Oil/Coal/Gold is discovered while the footings are being dug ). My last point of advice would be that they shouldn't allow temporary conditions to overly affect their decisions. Everyone knows that free market economies around the world operate in cycles (also know as Peaks and Troughs / Boom and Bust etc), and the downturn in the market that we are currently seeing is not going to last forever. Having said all of that, if they wanted to cash in and walk away while maintaining some dignity, I'd probably suggest that they sell up at BP and build a small stadium somewhere else where land prices are relatively less expensive than their current location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Dowds Green Shirt Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 My advice to Oldham Athletic as a business would be that in a contracting market, the first thing you need to do is ensure you retain your current customer base. Making sweeping changes in such an economic climate should be viewed as a high risk strategy. Now of course, the risk:reward rules will still apply (the bigger the risk the bigger the potential reward), but it should also be bourne in mind that the normal ratio that you would expect to apply to your considerations will not necessarily apply at such times. I would also advise them that while the past cannot always be replied upon to predict the future, it would be fair to say that the land at Boundary Park has for many many years been more valuable than the land earmarked for the development in Failsworth and this is likely to be the case in the future as while the actual value may change, the differencial between the two vlaues is likely to be relatively constant (unless of course Oil/Coal/Gold is discovered while the footings are being dug ). My last point of advice would be that they shouldn't allow temporary conditions to overly affect their decisions. Everyone knows that free market economies around the world operate in cycles (also know as Peaks and Troughs / Boom and Bust etc), and the downturn in the market that we are currently seeing is not going to last forever. Having said all of that, if they wanted to cash in and walk away while maintaining some dignity, I'd probably suggest that they sell up at BP and build a small stadium somewhere else where land prices are relatively less expensive than their current location. Temporary conditions! So when is this state of affairs going to end? You could do nothing for another 5 years, hope that the housing market picks up, continue to cover losses of circa £650K plus per year and rack up further losses of about £3.5 million. Oh and the housing market might still not have recovered. Where would we be by then?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Cheers, Harry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stebuzz Posted November 28, 2009 Share Posted November 28, 2009 Pity the facts and statistics are, for the most part, meaningless. most of the clubs he mentions were climbing up a table at the time, which might account for attendance rises. with the exception of colchester as we see who had a fall. they are much like oldham too in that their catchment area for fans is similar to ours. hmmmmmmmmmmm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boundaryblue80 Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 (edited) Pity the facts and statistics are, for the most part, meaningless. Quite... Like comparing us to Coventry, Cardiff and Swansea...City clubs without 2 other major clubs in the within 5 miles(?) next door...or like Darlington who are the exact opposite of where we want to be(ie.Administration and heading out of the league without trace)...or like Wigan, Hull or Stoke (who've had millions poured into the team.) There's only one on that list that really relates to us...Colchester...and they went 6 miles...we're going 4 miles towards 2 massive pulls on this new-found supporter honeypot we're supposedly moving too...yeah, if you say so!!! I know which percentage change we're likely to incur!!! Baaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!! Edited November 29, 2009 by boundaryblue80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opinions4u Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 (edited) 1) Waiting for "conditions to improve" and then redeveloping Boundary Park is fine - but it took 10 years for property prices to recover to their 1989 peak after the last recession. I think we have to accept that owners (who are owed £3m by the football club and could actually wind the business up any time they choose) want their return before 2018. 2) Retaining your existing customer base in a contracting market - while this is all well and good, reaching out to potential new customers, improving facilities for existing customers (who are openly moaning about what they currently get) and reducing the non-playing cost base of the business while opening up new streams of income sounds like a plan with merit. My heart would love a glorious BP to be redeveloped. My brain knows it isn't going to happen and if the football club is to remain within the borough then it has to be Failsworth. Edited November 29, 2009 by opinions4u Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 Temporary conditions! So when is this state of affairs going to end? You could do nothing for another 5 years, hope that the housing market picks up, continue to cover losses of circa £650K plus per year and rack up further losses of about £3.5 million. Oh and the housing market might still not have recovered. Where would we be by then?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Cheers, Harry Please stop trying to scare-monger. The housing market is already showing signs of recovery. The Independant - yesterday bbc.co.uk - property values in OL1 2PA -3.6% Annual, +3.6 from April to June I didn't say that they shouldn't do anything for 5 years. It is clear that something needs to be done, and done quickly. In my opinion, moving to Failsworth is the wrong decision. Redeveloping the Boundary Park site is the correct decision. Like I say, I don't have an axe to grind - my job doesnt depend on the future of the club - but I have invested thousands of pounds into the club over the last 30 odd years, but feel this may come to an end if this Failsworth move is railroaded through. When did TTA take over the club Harry? Perhaps we could look at the official House Prices Index and compare the figures for then and now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 1) Waiting for "conditions to improve" and then redeveloping Boundary Park is fine - but it took 10 years for property prices to recover to their 1989 peak after the last recession. I think we have to accept that owners (who are owed £3m by the football club and could actually wind the business up any time they choose) want their return before 2018. 2) Retaining your existing customer base in a contracting market - while this is all well and good, reaching out to potential new customers, improving facilities for existing customers (who are openly moaning about what they currently get) and reducing the non-playing cost base of the business while opening up new streams of income sounds like a plan with merit. My heart would love a glorious BP to be redeveloped. My brain knows it isn't going to happen and if the football club is to remain within the borough then it has to be Failsworth. Perhaps your brain has been conditioned into acceptance by years of watching Latics. It's a bit like saying "I'd love to have a free France, but know that Hitler is coming". It doesn't make it right, just more likely to happen. To address your points, can you back up your first point? I have looked at the stats, and can't agree to your point. Are you trying to tell me that you could buy a house for the same price in 1989 that you could in 1979? Point 2, just seems to back up the opinion that we should stay and redevelop rather than move to Manchester. (sorry, the Manc thing is a bit of a for which I apologise in advance ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oafc0000 Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 (edited) Loses of 650k a year ? It was £450k a year the other day.... Conflicting numbers keep appearing.... Coupled with the claim of crowds of 6500 would see us break even... We seem to hear numbers spun negativity when people want to support a move and spun positivity when people want to support the work TTA have done, by the same people. The property prices, 10 year argument, is a duff one for a lot of reasons as its all in collation to the economy / building costs etc... I would expect people in the property market to understand this. The property prices have collapsed far below the cost of building but that wont take 10 years to sort itself.... Bewear the advice from people with vested interests. Edited November 29, 2009 by oafc0000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opinions4u Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 (edited) Perhaps your brain has been conditioned into acceptance by years of watching Latics. It's a bit like saying "I'd love to have a free France, but know that Hitler is coming". It doesn't make it right, just more likely to happen. Sometimes fighting a battle to keep things the same is a futile option. Inluencing the change can add strength to it. To address your points, can you back up your first point? I have looked at the stats, and can't agree to your point. Are you trying to tell me that you could buy a house for the same price in 1989 that you could in 1979? No. I'm saying prices peaked in 1989 and didn't recover to that level until 1999. I did have a link to a rather snappy graph from The Times that showed this but the page appears to have been pulled. This link suggest it was 9 years - so the best part of a decade. The latest price rises were driven by mortgage lending funded by wholesale funds. Those wholesale funds have dried up and I doubt very much that the banks will have a significant appetite to use them to the same extent in future. Which suggest the recovery in house prices will, if anything, be longer. Loses of 650k a year ? It was £450k a year the other day.... Conflicting numbers keep appearing.... Coupled with the claim of crowds of 6500 would see us break even... We seem to hear numbers spun negativity when people want to support a move and spun positivity when people want to support the work TTA have done, by the same people. Fairly sure it was an article on here that quoted the £3m debt to TTA (specifically Blitz IIRC). It may well have been £450k pa and it may well have increased to £650k pa- espeically if gate revenue is down £30k a match. Conflicting information? Or information gleaned at different points in time? It's not a conspiracy theory. The property prices, 10 year argument, is a duff one for a lot of reasons as its all in collation to the economy / building costs etc... I would expect people in the property market to understand this. The property prices have collapsed far below the cost of building but that wont take 10 years to sort itself.... History suggests it will. Overlaid with tighter availability of mortgage funds I see little to improve on the situation. What indicators can you see, drawing from the history of boom and bust, can you see that will make the next 10 years rosier for the property market than the period 1989-1998 ? Edited November 29, 2009 by opinions4u Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 Sometimes fighting a battle to keep things the same is a futile option. Inluencing the change can add strength to it. No. I'm saying prices peaked in 1989 and didn't recover to that level until 1999. I did have a link to a rather snappy graph from The Times that showed this but the page appears to have been pulled. Point one, I think I have you on So, as a Frenchman before the German invasion, you'd have given the Nazis directions to Paris Point 2, I have a graph that I have generated from Nationwide House Average House Price Data (filtered for the North West), but dont know how to put it up on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oafc0000 Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 (edited) Sometimes fighting a battle to keep things the same is a futile option. Inluencing the change can add strength to it. No. I'm saying prices peaked in 1989 and didn't recover to that level until 1999. I did have a link to a rather snappy graph from The Times that showed this but the page appears to have been pulled. This link suggest it was 9 years - so the best part of a decade. The latest price rises were driven by mortgage lending funded by wholesale funds. Those wholesale funds have dried up and I doubt very much that the banks will have a significant appetite to use them to the same extent in future. Which suggest the recovery in house prices will, if anything, be longer. So does you magic ball say anything about the cost of building.... It tends to recede towards a end of a recession... How how else to you think we finally recover from a recession ? The ten year argument is a red herring. I am not well and I am a bit lazy this morning so could only be arsed finding this. http://www.gvagrimley.co.uk/documents/publ...letinQ12009.pdf The important thing to track is the strength of sterling and not the raw prices of houses. Building costs are currently high in the UK due to the weak pound. That situation will not continue forever. Edited November 29, 2009 by oafc0000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 You cant simply compare the length of time is took for house prices to return to the previous high without considering Economic Stimulus, Rate of Decline and Depth of Recession. You also need to consider that recent years has seen a significant swing in the UK economy away from Manufacturing towards Service related business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opinions4u Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 (edited) Point one, I think I have you on So, as a Frenchman before the German invasion, you'd have given the Nazis directions to Paris Not even going on there on that one. Point 2, I have a graph that I have generated from Nationwide House Average House Price Data (filtered for the North West), but dont know how to put it up on here. Does this help?I used national data from Q3 1989 to Q1 1998. You cant simply compare the length of time is took for house prices to return to the previous high without considering Economic Stimulus, Rate of Decline and Depth of Recession. You also need to consider that recent years has seen a significant swing in the UK economy away from Manufacturing towards Service related business. All relelvant. All reasons to support little siginificant uplift in property values. So does you magic ball say anything about the cost of building.... It tends to recede towards a end of a recession... How how else to you think we finally recover from a recession ? Better to build sooner rather than later then. The ten year argument is a red herring.It's part of the overall assessment. Not a red herring. The important thing to track is the strength of sterling and not the raw prices of houses. Building costs are currently high in the UK due to the weak pound. That situation will not continue forever. Sterling against the dollar has been weaker histroically. It has also been stronger. Why do you assume it can only go one way? Edited November 29, 2009 by opinions4u Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oafc0000 Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 (edited) Better to build sooner rather than later then. Your not following... Right now it is extremely expensive to build... It could well be different within a two years... While this would hopefully make the failworth build cheaper it could also open doors regarding BP. Cost of property rock bottom (well not quite considering the rises).... Cost of building very high.... Soon we may see cost of property at a reasonable level... Cost of building much reduced... Just in case you needed it spelling out It's part of the overall assessment. Not a red herring. Its a total red herring and I do not even think its a line being pushed by TTA. The economy is the problem, not house prices. Some people looking for a 50p headline and have come up short. Sterling against the dollar has been weaker histroically. It has also been stronger. Why do you assume it can only go one way? Why do you feel the sterling vs the dollar is the only thing to track ? Edited November 29, 2009 by oafc0000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opinions4u Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 I made the mistake of thinking I was debating something where there are a range of valid views worthy of discussion. But, oafc0000, that last question has really pi$$ed me off because I have never at any time indicated that sterling v dollar is the only thing to track. Indeed it was you who originally raised the relevance of exchange rates in the overall picture. So I shall let other discuss the pros and cons of ground move and the article referred to in the original post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oafc0000 Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 But, oafc0000, that last question has really pi$$ed me off because I have never at any time indicated that sterling v dollar is the only thing to track. Indeed it was you who originally raised the relevance of exchange rates in the overall picture. I mentioned the strength of the sterling... Not its relative value to the dollar... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boundaryblue80 Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 (edited) Sometimes fighting a battle to keep things the same is a futile option. Inluencing the change can add strength to it. Fairly sure it was an article on here that quoted the £3m debt to TTA (specifically Blitz IIRC). It may well have been £450k pa and it may well have increased to £650k pa- espeically if gate revenue is down £30k a match. Interesting line that O4u...it doesn't half hack me off when I hear the Failsworth supporters use this word "Change" like a Barrack Obama campaigner! It's often used in the following way..."you're all typical Oldhamers...scared of change..."Erm...No...actually,we're not. We're not asking for nothing to happen..we're also not asking for us to reduce what we have to rubble and move 4 miles from the core of our support to a land occupied by the cancer on football that we've fought for years. We're asking for a re-building of BP (which is change) and asking for it to be done bit by bit, over 3-5years and not this wham, bam, unrealistic-thankyou-mam which TTA were planning originally. Regards figures quoted by TTA, while I'm not foolish enough to think they've not spent plenty (which they'll recoup whether we move to Failsworth or rebuild at BP!...just how much they'll recoup being the issue and why they want us in Failsworth!) I treat them figures with some real contempt... mainly due to the fact that we hear all what they've spent but never hear about what's been received. Ala Eardley money, Danny Philliskirk money, Scott Spencer money, Tottenham on TV, Thurrock on TV, Chasetown on TV, Leeds on TV x a couple of games, Man City FA Cup on MOTD plus full house, Everton FA Cup money followed by Huddersfield full-house, Playoff season money....theres plenty more that can go on the list...it's all covered up...they talk of only the losses and it wears thin sometimes. Like CaitkinCUFC rightly says (who follows the Shrews fan that said similar earlier this season)....from someone currently "wearing the t-shirt"..."it's a really :censored: idea!" Edited November 29, 2009 by boundaryblue80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opinions4u Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 I mentioned the strength of the sterling... Not its relative value to the dollar... Dollar, Euro, Yen or the Burundi Franc it doesn't change the fact that you twisted my words - I don't mind people challenging my views, offering alternatives or even enlightening me to another way of thinking. When they twist my words it pi$$es me off and tells me that they aren't worth the bother. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oafc0000 Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 (edited) Dollar, Euro, Yen or the Burundi Franc it doesn't change the fact that you twisted my words - I don't mind people challenging my views, offering alternatives or even enlightening me to another way of thinking. When they twist my words it pi$$es me off and tells me that they aren't worth the bother. I did not "twist" anything... I just replied to what you wrote... By suggesting the dollar I thought you was getting at the dollar being special for some reason... Edited November 29, 2009 by oafc0000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 Not even going on there on that one. Does this help?I used national data from Q3 1989 to Q1 1998. I am not surprised that you are "not going there on that one" - I've got you banged to rights!! I used the same source, but looked at Q4 1973 to Q3 2009. If you look at the graph (if someone can tell me how to post up the graph, we can all look at it) you can see that house (and therefore also property) prices were actually pretty static from 1989 to 1999. If you look at the data in its entirity, this can be clearly seen as an anomily. My parents bought a house in 1973 for £4,000! I was looking at a small terraced in 1988 for £22,000! Property values have always, over time, increased. So just to clarify my view on this - I am eternally grateful for TTA for coming in and saving our club when they did. They have made financial contributions (again I am grateful), but will want to see a return (or at least break even) on this. I believe that the land where BP is sited is worth more than it is in Failsworth. I also belive that the redevelopment of BP is something of a political "hot potato" for the council. If we relocate to Failsworth, it seems to suit TTA and OMBC. TTA would be able to sell the land at BP for redevelopment and OMBC seem to prefer the relocation plan to the redevelopment of BP. If I was TTA, I'd probably do the same. But I don't buy the reasons given for relocation and the stats seem to back up my view. I don't understand the difference (apart from the difference in land values and aparent political pressures as previously mentioned) between building new in Failsworth and Redevelopment stand by stand at Boundary Park. Ask yourself honestly, if all things were equal, would you prefer a complete move or a redevelopment at our current location? If you would prefer a complete move, I am wasting my time discussing this. If you would prefer a redevelopment, ask what is it that ISN'T equal. Then you will understand why I have a very uneasy feeling about all of this business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opinions4u Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 (edited) I am not surprised that you are "not going there on that one" - I've got you banged to rights!! More a fear of not being able to spell the word analogy with any confidence. But it's a strange one to use ;) . Ask yourself honestly, if all things were equal, would you prefer a complete move or a redevelopment at our current location? I would much rather an enhanced BP be the centre of footballing excellence in Oldham. But I am accepting of the inevitability of Failsworth. If you would prefer a complete move, I am wasting my time discussing this. Rick, I appreciate the depth of feeling that this has. Especially for those who have been watching Latics at BP for a lot longer than I have. I only found the discussion became pointless when 0000 started trying to be a smart arse, which it now appears is a status beyond any reasonable aspirations he should have. Edited November 29, 2009 by opinions4u Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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