Harry Dowds Green Shirt Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 Todays vital 3 points surely means that a maximum of 1 more win will see us safe. WE WILL NOT GO DOWN WITH 49 POINTS!!!!! 1 more win would mean that Tranmere would have to win 3 from six from Wycombe, Exeter & Millwall at Home and Brentford Stockport & Colchester away. (Doable and a possibility) AND Orient (1 win in 13) would need 8 points from Norwich, Stockport & Wycombe at Home and Millwall and Colchester away - Highly unlilely imo AND Gillingham (3 wins in 19, 3 in the last 9 at home and not won away all season) 6, or depending on goal difference, 7 points from Brighton, Leeds and Southampton at home and Norwich and Wycombe away - Unlikely imo AND Exeter (3 wins in 15) 4 or 5 points from Charlton and Huddersfield at home and Swindon, Tranmere and Hartlepool away - doable and a possibility AND Hartlepool (4 wins in 17) 4 (or depending on goal difference 5) points from Stockport, Colchester and Exeter at home and Walsall and Brentford away. Doable and likely but now have a possible points deduction or replay of the Brighton match hanging over them Any points picked up during the 3 away matches in the next 10 days would be most helpful and by Southend in 2 weeks (1 win in 17) we could well be safe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lags Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 2 more wins for me with the added security of an away draw thrown in along the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookers_Carl Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 As long as we don't go into the charlton game needing something!!! And (been mentioned on another thread I think) Hartlepool been charged with fielding an illegible player, which carries the risk of a points deduction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Dowds Green Shirt Posted April 10, 2010 Author Share Posted April 10, 2010 As long as we don't go into the charlton game needing something!!! And (been mentioned on another thread I think) Hartlepool been charged with fielding an illegible player, which carries the risk of a points deduction Hartelpool will be deducted 3 points (all points won in a game where an ineligible player takes part are automatically deducted by the FA throughout all levels of the football pyramid) and the game could also be replayed although in this case that is highly unlikely. Hartlepool will then need either 7 or 8 points to overtake us which in my opinion is then highly unlikely. My only concern with the Hartlepool points deduction is that the FA will not rule until the 28th April for some reason. But they WILL be deducted the 3 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookers_Carl Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 Hartelpool will be deducted 3 points (all points won in a game where an ineligible player takes part are automatically deducted by the FA throughout all levels of the football pyramid) and the game could also be replayed although in this case that is highly unlikely. Hartlepool will then need either 7 or 8 points to overtake us which in my opinion is then highly unlikely. My only concern with the Hartlepool points deduction is that the FA will not rule until the 28th April for some reason. But they WILL be deducted the 3 points Possibly more. Oxford were deducted 5 for fielding an unregistered player last season but thats being discussed here I still think Southend may be forced into admin this season as their hearing is next week? Either way I think we could be home and dry before the last game of the season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Dowds Green Shirt Posted April 10, 2010 Author Share Posted April 10, 2010 Possibly more. Oxford were deducted 5 for fielding an unregistered player last season The points deducted will relate to points gained with said ineligible player in the side. However if it is not a 1st offence and/or there is a suspended sentence hanging over them for an other discepancy then the number of points deducted can be increased. I do not recall Pools being in any other trouble and so do not expect that they will have anything other than 3 points deducted. The only variation to this situation is if an ineliglble player plays in a cup game as per Bury last season. The penalty for this is that said team is expelled from the competition and their opponents re-instated. You can appeal but the precedent is so strong and cast in stone, you will not win any appeal. Pools will be 3 points worse off, come the 28th April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Dowds Green Shirt Posted April 10, 2010 Author Share Posted April 10, 2010 I still think Southend may be forced into admin this season as their hearing is next week? Either way I think we could be home and dry before the last game of the season I didn't mention Southend as such in my op, because they are not capable of catching us. 1 win in 17 and as you say possible Admin. The league now have the discretion, as we have passed a set date in the season, to choose not to deduct the 10 points this season if they would go down in any event in which case, they can deduct them at the start of next season ala Southampton last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookers_Carl Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 I didn't mention Southend as such in my op, because they are not capable of catching us. 1 win in 17 and as you say possible Admin. The league now have the discretion, as we have passed a set date in the season, to choose not to deduct the 10 points this season if they would go down in any event in which case, they can deduct them at the start of next season ala Southampton last season. As it is after the 4th thursday in march, any points deduction would be suspended till end of season. If after 46 games they are in the bottom four, the deduction applies next season. If they are outside the bottom four it is applied this season, which barring a minor miracle (as in they finish 11 points outside the relegation zone this year), it will result in their relegation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simpo Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 As well as the points gap, the fact we have 4 teams between us and Tranmere is a big plus. It means we have to do worse than all 5 teams below us to go down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Dowds Green Shirt Posted April 10, 2010 Author Share Posted April 10, 2010 As it is after the 4th thursday in march, any points deduction would be suspended till end of season. If after 46 games they are in the bottom four, the deduction applies next season. If they are outside the bottom four it is applied this season, which barring a minor miracle (as in they finish 11 points outside the relegation zone this year), it will result in their relegation Correct. Add to that if they do not come out of Administration via a CVA, they could have further points deducted as per Rotherham, Luton and Bournemouth. I still don't think the Admin issue will come into play as far as we are concerned as I believe that Southend have gone. Not only that they can't catch us all things being equal, but I believe that the teams collective head has gone as 1 win in 17 suggests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
don't worry be happy Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 :grin: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookers_Carl Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 As well as the points gap, the fact we have 4 teams between us and Tranmere is a big plus. It means we have to do worse than all 5 teams below us to go down. Exactly, think southend could be gonners before they play us (sorry seasider71) and Gillingham still have to travel to norwich, and have leeds and southampton (my pick for next season already) to play at home, although orient still have to travel to milwall and colchester, and play norwich at home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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