24hoursfromtulsehill

Run down by years of Tory misrule...which you voted for.

You're reading something that isn't there...for which I blame the Tory education system you vote for. I'm just pointing out how far behind you miserable wankers are and always will be...to help and motivate you. If you can't see that, you will remain where you are now on the great granite pyramid of predicting, which is near the bottom, struggling and sometimes even going backwards down toward the valley of shame with the likes of rudemedic.

I'm unsure now. The polls have been volatile in the extreme, which makes me think they're unreliable in all directions. Women are going for Corbyn big style, apparently. He's ahead on all sorts of domestic issues by loads with all groups of voters. How much that counts on polling day is another question. The polls were out in 2015...but the Tories didn't exactly win by miles...and governing with a majority in the teens was a grim struggle for them. The most hilarious thing would be for the whole thing to produce no change. I'm hoping this becomes the election of great humour...the biggest political joke of all time.

Can May even survive this total shambles of a campaign? The correct strategy for both candidates at the beginning was not to go on television or radio, or appear in public. That's only true for May now. Having said that, your shy Tories are still knocking about somewhere in the hidden level of polling data. That yougov poll showing only a four-point lead is deeply sketchy...if you're inclined to believe that opinion polls form opinion rather than reflect it. Getting the Tory vote out so the iffy leftie doesn't win just happens to be one of the central planks of the Crosby campaign.

Can anyone tell me what the fuck is going on in this election? May clearly called it because a 20+ lead in the polls within a given window was the strategic trigger. It was an absolutely sensible plan, hatched long ago...probably about the time she became PM. How on earth has that gone tits up? Have people actually read the manifestos for a change? Surely the Lynton Crosby myth is over now. (He's lost more elections than he's won, and not even nearly met predictions and expectations in others...and yet still charges £2 million a pop for dogwhistles and sketchy manifestos.) Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn...never the most articulate politician and sometimes one of the dryest, deadest thinkers on the planet...is pulling up trees on none other than policies, some of which he personally disagrees with, such as Trident replacement. I said at the time he became leader that he had one chance only, and that was to stick to his guns no matter what. The Labour moderates are suddenly shitting themselves because he might break even in this election, which means that their non-participation is absolute suicide. They look like the ones who won't play and they'll never be forgiven for it. Seriously. I haven't been following it other than on here. The older I get, the less I know what's happening.

Dave's reputation and my reputation are cemented...we're the only two people (are we even human?) who've climbed the high mountain in both the amateur and professional eras of predicting. You've won fuck all ever. Dave has nothing to prove; I have nothing to prove. The correct approach...if you want to avoid making a cringey fool of yourself...is to lavish upon us the usual dues of deference and awe. Feel free to wave at us from down there on the valley floor! We might not see it, but we're grateful all the same, in an indifferent sort of way.

Dave and me went down the pub is correct. Dave and I went down the pub is also correct, although somewhat strained and affected. The idea that only this latter example is correct is a buggery bear trap set somewhere back in time in a public school.

My grammar was correct in that instance...as it is in all other instances. Dave Collinge and me looked down upon the miserable wankers far down the mountain of predicting...is also correct. Dave Collinge and I...is a miserable and pedantic affectation, possibly originating in the public school system, where many grammatical errors were invented, and where the sexual abuse of underperforming students was rife.

Everyone wants to win...but not everyone is prepared to make the necessary sacrifices.

That picture is from the hooky holiday in Spain I went on with your mum.

Lolling about down here with Dave Collinge on the Caribbean beach reserved for Champions What Span The Amateur And Professional Eras, I've still got considerably more reason than you...you perennial mid-table shithouse...to consider myself a custodian of the game. I say what I like and I like what I say.

tl;dr but... I reckon the there's game enhancement mileage in giving the 10 closest attendances points on a sliding scale - 10 for nearest and so on. Otherwise the rules are fine. Interesting how actual winners like Dave Collinge and Me aren't that bothered either way. We'll win whatever the conditions. The also-rans make a song and dance because about it because...in the fetid pond of their excuses culture...they believe a rule tweak here or there will make it easier for them. Absolute losers from top to bottom.

McMahon is a top bloke, although I liked Meacher as well...with his extremely left wing, well written and superficially attractive economics lectures from the Back Benches, to which no one really listened. There's a weird other dimension to politicians from my point of view: you can form a favourable impression or otherwise about MPs based on how easy they are to transcribe. Jim McMahon, for instance, isn't a lot of fun...whereas Meacher was beautiful. Historically, Hansard reporters have had soft spots for charmers such as George Galloway and Enoch Powell, and reciprocal loathing for people with perfectly acceptable views (they're campaigning for the disabled!) but troublesome diction, accents and so on.

I think I've decided...after reading all the manifestos and listening to the various main players, and considering all the local dimensions down here in Peckham and Camberwell, plus the international situation, Brexit, living standards, pensions, the economy, defence, the IRA, the environment, rural issues, business and so on...I'm gonna vote Labour again. I lie. I was gonna do it anyway and haven't considered even one of those things...except maybe Camberwell and Peckham...which means I can say I'm voting for Harman rather than Seamus fucking Milne.

You've got to feel for Dave Ragg in the circumstances, but Joe deserves a little bit of good fortune after all he's been through. Neither shouldn't really have to predict anything to do with teams other than Oldham...so no one comes out of this well - players, administrators or the very few fans who've stayed to watch.

I agree. The UKIP / Tory split vote is over. UKIP are fucked electorally...and yet still prominent on TV and the dead tree press.

I don't get the piss boiling about public sector pensions. (Actually I do and I really enjoy it...up to a point.) Public sector pensions are high partly because of unionisation...but mostly because the employers have historically placed a high premium on retention. Other sectors price retention differently...whether it's financial services or entertainment or whatever. For the sake of chilling your piss a little, just accept that we have a pluralistic economy in which different actors have different priorities and strategies, which means people in those economies benefit in different ways. Your piss boiling isn't really about that though, is it? Your piss is boiling because the right wing press have told you for decades that someone over there has something that people over here might quite like. You won't lift a finger to help people to get that thing they want...but you're extremely energetic about getting it taken away from the people who have it. THAT makes MY piss boil. Anyway...I'm told we have a successful and dynamic personal financial services sector...so it's really anomalous that loads of people don't save for pensions, isn't it? Could it be that the supposedly burgeoning personal financial services sector is in fact a scandal-riven cesspool of shysters and confidence merchants in which no one has any trust? I'm just trying to square the circle of the savings gap and a reputedly successful sphere of enterprise. Grateful for any help.

Politics is probably ripe for big betting wins (I wish I knew how). I'm told the prices reflect money down, like a tote system, rather than probability of outcome.

It is y'know. What makes you think the Tories haven't signed us up to massive debts every time they've been in power? If you shut down your voting options because of the national debt...you'll end up with no one to vote for.

That's a bit dramatic for a benign Thursday afternoon. You been out for lunch? I would say yes, they do. I don't recall anyone burning any cash though. The Tories introduced the necessity of PFI.

Save the NHS has been one of Labour's most successful dog whistles...because they know that the Tories have an unredeemable reputation, which was forged in the late 1940s, and cemented by every single Tory Health Secretary since.

That's true enough. Labour under Miliband did quite a good job for the Tories of lowering people's expectations (these cuts will hurt you!). It's not that they're not hurting and damaging...just people don't perceive it that way because it's not as bad as they were told it would be. Brexit will definitely result in rusting cars on driveways though, which will be a genuinely tricky living standards crisis. I haven't seen the manifesto and probably won't bother...but she's in a strong enough position to increase taxes or introduce new heinous ones to pay for Osborne's failures. It's a vote loser...but she has votes to lose.

It almost doesn't matter whether a proposal is costed or not. Most aren't, from any party...or they're not costed well enough to withstand the scrutiny of even an armchair accountant. What matters is trust. Trust gets you a fair hearing...where "fair hearing" means applying the same test to the different parties' proposals. The fact is that the Tories get away with the most blatant fiscal lies, while Labour get panned for promising so little as a penny over or under. It's got very little to do with the inherent merit or otherwise of a policy, or with the accountancy. (You can knacker the straw men in most manifestos by introducing a slightly different initial financial condition, such as a fall or rise in the pound.) It really depends on what stance you take in the first place, or what prism you're viewing this stuff through. That's why the opinion polls at the beginning of election more or less reflect the result. Even the Spectator is saying that May promises to tax and spend more than Corbyn. But who's listening?

Nahki Wells - every transfer window for about four years. Weirdly...according to a Grimsby fan I know...they were always in the running as well...according to their message board. Did every single club go through a Nahki Wells rumour phase?