JimiT

Time for what has become my once a year post. The simple rules I follow are - must have placed over 3 miles 5, weight under 11 stone 4 (used to be 11 stone dead, but the amount of decent class horses entering has moved this up) and be aged 9 or 10. I then go a bit deeper into class and official ratings etc. My tip is Silver By Nature. He's 11 lb well in for a start, has plenty of stamina having won the Haydock trial in February (carrying 11 st 12) and has a second in the Welsh National to his name. He jumps well and is carrying a decent weight. The ground is the question mark about him, as he would prefer softer going. He's currently available at 18/1, which I think is a very decent price. I can't be having What a Friend, despite it being 14 lb well in. It had a hard run in the Gold Cup and has the tendency to throw in a poor performance every now and then, add Paul Nicholls' poor record in the race and its a swerve for me. Neither can I have Don't Push It - granted it'll stay but top weights have a poor record and at 9/1 (shorter by race time I'd imagine) it's not value. The Midnight Club is interesting, but Arbor Supreme (who I tipped last year) is more so. There was only a length between them last time out but Arbor Supreme carries 10 lb less than the Midnight Club here and is double the price. Clearly there are a fair few in with a shout, Dermont Weld sending Majestic Concorde over is intriguing, Becauseicouldntsee has proven stamina but is perhaps short on class, Oscar Time should go well and at a biggish price West End Rocker is worth a look. Best of luck with whatever you back.

Brilliant stuff from AP, really pleased for him. Unfortunately, I doubt he'll win Sports Personality of the Year, but at least he might get a mention this time.

For the Grand National, I like a horse that has won over 3m5 or further, that is aged 8, 9 or 10, last ran between 20 and 50 days ago, isn’t French (Mon Mome the first for 100+ years) and that has placed in a field of over 20 runners. Nothing has won carrying more than 11 stone 1 since 1983 and that’s the main consideration. This leaves me with two; Niche Market although it is carrying 11 stone 4, Harry Skelton takes 3lb off. It won the Irish National last year, was an excellent third to Denman in the Hennessey Gold Cup (of the previous 10 winners of the Grand National, 7 have been won or been placed in a National, 2 of the other 3 made the first five in the Hennessey) and was the horse that got Denman off the bridle in the Aon Chase (but finally got collared by Tricky Trickster). I feel the extra distance here and good ground will suit and a repeat of his Hennessey running could see him go very close. Arbor Supreme. Good low weight and in good form. Has won over 3m6 so stamina shouldn’t be a problem. Ticks all the boxes for me. I think Mon Mome will get round, but is no value considering the record of previous winners and Big Fella Thanks is no price at all for a horse that has only ran over 3 and a half miles once. Of the others, Snowy Morning should go close and The Package is interesting but 7 year olds have a dreadful record. Best of luck everyone. Can't believe I put that, complete falsehood. I made a note he took 3 lbs off lto, and confused myself and put it here, apologies.

Here Stevie! Nice to know I'm remembered! I'm just finishing me research before going out so will post me selection, for what it's worth, tomorrow. Based on my Cheltenham (and today's) form though, I wouldn't hold yer breath.

Long time no post an all that. I'd be staggered if we were anywhere near 5/1 at home to Norwich. 2s at best. On a related note, Mike Holden tips us away at Colchester this weekend in the Sporting Life's betting zone.

Whoops! I knew there were g's and b's somewhere in it. Cheers Stevie.

The good old Grand National, I love it. I follow a simple method to narrow the field, which to be fair, has proved quite successful over the years. Basically, I rule out anything over 11 stone, that hasn't placed over 3 m 5, that's French and that isn't aged 9, 10 or 11 (preference for 9/10 year olds). I also like the horse to be in decent form, so should have at least placed in two of it's last three starts. This rules out all but two. The first of which, Cornish Sett, I'm ruling out as last time out it was comprehensively beaten, as it was in last years National. So ticking all the boxes and my bet for the National is Kilbeggan Blade. It's form is decent, especially the win at Sandown in December over 3 m 5 carrying 11 st 7, where it had Rambling Minister behind it. It's since won again and finished second (although that run was a bit below par, he was giving a weight all round). Can't guarantee another Comply or Die, but at 25/1 I hoping it'll run a big race. Best of luck to those having a flutter. Edit - the Bee Gees'll be spinning in their graves.

You've gotta hand it to Kauto Star, a true Champion. Superb performance from Denman too.

Well, I've not had the best of festivals, but here are my thoughts for what its worth. 1.30 Triumph Hurdle. Belting race to start and I do like Walkon. The stats say the winner of this won lto and have won more than two hurdle races. Of the prinicpals, this leaves Walkon and Zaynar, and I think Walkon (who has course form) can avenge its defeat to Zaynar (when giving him weight). In the 2.05 Dave's Dream goes for a 75k bonus, but I'm not convince he'll be able to do it. I like the look of Sunnyhillboy. I've no fancy for the 2.40. The Gold Cup is, as always, intriguing. Will Denman be anywhere near as good as last year? I don't think so. I'm actually quite surprised its running. I'm not totally convinced by Neptune Collenges either. Which leaves Kauto Star. He holds Exotic Dancer clearly on form and was impressive in the King George. The ground, which was against him last year, has come good for him and the only real negative I can see is that former champs don't regain their crown. I'm not sure Barber Shop has the class to win and think Star de Mohaison could run into a place at a big price. The foxhunters is likely to be anarchy, but Juveigneur seems in good form. I'll not be getting involved. And then its a case of choosing which David Pipe horse to side with in the 4.40 Martin Pipe Hurdle. The market will tell you its between Mamlook and Big Eared Fran. I can't decide. Best of luck to all having a punt. Let's hope the Gold Cup lives up to expectation.

Superb call with Kayf Aramis, Htc. Great stuff. Voy Por was let down by some unusually poor jumping and there's no excuse for Kasbah Bliss' performance. I had both Big Bucks and Chapoturgen on my shortlists, but as usual didn't back either, ho hum. Just hope the delightful Nina can rescue my day, but I'll be back tomorrow undaunted.

Couple of short priced favourites today, both with good reason. In the opener, I do like the look of Northern Alliance. The booking of Ruby is significant, apparently, he's been booked for a while. It's third lto is good form (Made in Taipan fourth in the Arkle), especially considering it was in need of the run. Clearly, Chapoturgen is a danger. I think the Pertemps is pretty difficult to call, but there are positive vibes for Synchronised. To the Ryanair and Voy Per Ustedes has to be the bet. It's hovering around the even money mark, which I think is about right given its performances over this trip at Aintree last year and Ascot lto. I think it'd have given Master Minded a good race yesterday had connections not been scared off. The World Hurdle should go to Kasbah Bliss. It's run last year found only legend Inglis Drever too good and it was very impressive at Haydock. I'm tempted by the forecast with Big Bucks. I'm avoiding the 4.00 and following the gamble in the 4.40 with Nina on board Poker De Sivola. Best of luck today.

Well Master Minded wasn't as impressive as expected, but great comeback from Well Chief. Lough Derg disappointed but has battled so hard so often, you can't complain. Especially after seeing his gorgeous stable girl, aye aye. Just doing Meath All Star in the bumper to finish today, tomorrow it's all about two bankers.

VC go 13/8 on Master Minded to win by over 10 lengths, that'll do me.

Morning HTC, missed you yesterday. In the opener, I'm split between Can't Buy Time and Coe. I've slight preference for Can't Buy Time because connections clearly believe it to have the stamina (it has an entry for the National) and Jonjo O'Neill has a good record in this race. However, Coe has the stamina proved. Of the outsiders, Le Beau Bai could run a good race. I'm very keen on the chances of Diamond Harry in the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle. It brings course and distance form, which day 1 shows is very important, which rates him a better chance than dangers Mikael D'haguenet, Karabak and Mad Max. In the 2.40, the fact that Ruby Walsh chooses Cooldine over What a Friend, I think is significant. Having said that, I'm going for Carruthers. Think it's got every chance of reversing the form with What a Friend after an impressive win lto. Not one to get heavily involved with though. The Queen Mother is clearly going to be won (barring any mishaps) by Master Minded. The question is, how do we approach it from a betting angle? I'd love Well Chief to give Master Minded the most to do, and if it's anywhere near the horse that mixed it with Moscow Flyer, then it could well finish second. Also, I think Briareus is interesting @ 4s without Master Minded. Master Minded to win by over 11 lengths is 5/4, which could be the way to go. The Coral Cup is a pin the card race, as always. I'm going for Lough Derg to defy top weight. One thing is guaranteed, Lough Derg will fight all the way. I'm leaving the 4.40. In the bumper, I've been given Meath All Star @ 16s as a decent shot. We'll see. Best of luck everyone.

Quevega does the business very impressively to at least end the day on a good note. Pity there weren't more people around to post some thoughts. Tomorrow perhaps?

Nice work with Medermit, rvw. For me, Planet of Sound gets the place in the Arkle. And what an awesome ride by AP in the William Hill. Quite unbelievable. Think Binocular will come in some now after that.

Hello all, long time no post. Thought I'd start (unless I've missed something) a post on the greatest week of the year. In the opener, the Supreme Novices, I can't get away from Cousin Vinny, I'm largely ignoring all the negative vibes about his travel over here (I vaguely recall something similar before the bumper last year). His hurdling isn't the best, but all things being equal, he should win. The main danger, Torphichen, has to overcome the bad record 4 year olds have in the race. A poor looking Arkle trophy follows, and I really haven't a clue. Calgary Bay would probably be my pick, although would probably want further and at a big price, Planet of Sound could place. I'm avoiding the William Hil Trophy and later the Cross Country. In the big one, the Champion Hurdle, we've got another very short priced favourite in Binocular. He's too short really at 7/4, although the 2/1 this morning could look massive later on. I'm going for Osana. He impressed me in defeat to Celestial Halo at Sandown on his first run of the season and should hopefully be involved in the places. Finally, I'm following the strong vibes for Quevega in the last. United could be a danger (not the only united I hope gets beat this week) but Quevega was pretty close to Hurricane Fly in the summer, which is probably the best form on show. Best of luck if you're having a flutter.

Wolfy ain't listed in the squad in the Chron...

No worries all. Glad a few on here backed it and have made a bit of cash, pity Latics couldn't do the biz though. Jeff, I reckon your commission'll be half a shandy Agree with you about Howard Johnson, btw. Talking of trainers, how good a job is David Pipe doing? Some mightily impressive training performances recently, Our Vic as I mentioned before and now Comply or Die. And I also really like Timmy Murphy as a jockey, so chuffed for him too. Right, time for me to head to the pub to celebrate.

Pressure what pressure?

Apologies, put Bulters Cabin up and it's French, so is ruled out. Slim Pickings hasn't won for two years, that's out. Chelsea Harbour is best on heavier ground, that's out. Bewleys Berry was pulled up last time out, that's out. Point Barrow disappointed a couple of races ago. Whether it's last run was an improvement, I'm not so sure. That's out. Cornish Sett hasn't raced for 100 days, that's out. Naunton Brook has also been disappointing in its previous outings, that's out. Which leaves Comply or Die. Not exactly original, but it fits the profile perfectly and goes on the ground. Especially impressive was its weight carrying win last time out. It is also carrying 10 stone 9, which is pretty much an ideal National weight and from the Pipe yard who are in good form (Our Vic putting up a superb performance yesterday for example). I think it'll go off around 9/1 or even 17/2, so the 11/1 currently is well worth taking.

Cheers, no pressure. The National is the race that got me into horse racing. Clearly, anything can happen with 40 horses and 30 fences, but there are certain rules and trends that can narrow the field considerably. The rules I follow are; must carry under 11 stone; be aged 8, 9 or 10; must have been placed over 3 miles 5 previously; must have been placed in last three starts and must not be French bred. I've allowed up to 11 stone 5 as the bottom weight is only 10 stone 7, which is a lot heavier than usual. This has narrowed it down to the following; Bulters Cabin (14/1); Slim Pickings (10/1); Chelsea Harbour (14/1); Bewleys Berry (14/1); Point Barrow (20/1); Cornish Sett (100/1); Naunton Brook (66/1) and Comply or Die (10/1). I'm currently narrowing these down further and will post which I fancy later/tomorrow.

Yep, absolute star. Great ride, great performance.

Get in Our Vic! Clearly, caught him on a good day.

That was an exceptional performance, quality stuff. Would love to see Inglis Drever put up a big showing now, make it a cracking day's racing.