Diego_Sideburns Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 A Leicester statistician has calculated the points needed for automatic promotion and the Play-offs. The (mean) average points total over the last 20 years in order to make second place is 85 points. The points attained has varied from 91 to 81, We are currently on 49 points with 17 games to play. This would therefore require a further 36 points out of a remaining 51 points to play for. Winning at home and drawing away will average two points per game = 34 points, probably not quite enough. The (mean) average points total over the last 20 years in order to make sixth place is 75 points. It has varied from 82 to 69. We are currently on 49 points with 17 games to play. This would therefore require a further 26 points out of a remaining 51 points to play for. Winning the 8 home games would give us 24 points and picking up a couple from away games should be sufficient. Of course we can’t guarantee winning at home. Effectively we can only afford to drop 25 points during the remaining games for a Play-off place. Having said all that, we could require more or fewer points. Who knows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dean 1984 Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 to get 6th this season will require more points than usual its very tight with us and leeds at the moment, i think if we win our game in hand huds wont catch us, i think stockport wont be up there anyway, but leeds and tranny will chase us all the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego_Sideburns Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 The shorter version. We need more points this year than 3rd place to go up automatically OR more than 7th to hit the play offs. Previous statistics have no bearing on this years positions as the variables are too great. 100% accurate forecast but it's more interesting to have a numerical target. Shez has his target, butb he's not telling anyone. Isn't the first target another 9 points to avoid relegation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Going off that stat, the bits and pieces we posted yesterday in the mock final table, and our points average so far per game which is 1.69 I think, the team are going to have to pull their finger out starting this Saturday or it's going to ebb away. Second place is statistically unrealistic for us now, it's achievable but unrealistic let's face it - we need a target of 12 wins from the remaining 17... Playoffs is not as tough an ask but it's going to be a nail-biter, in fact we need to be doing better in the points averages from now on, better than we have been doing since the start of the season. We. Need. To. Be. Doing. Better... We've missed opportunities this season and is it now beginning to show? I'm not a naturally gloomy person - I want to be shown that the team, when they need to the most, can rise to the challenge and make the grade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsslatic Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 I don't see what the problem is. Win our next twelve games and we're up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego_Sideburns Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 I don't see what the problem is. Win our next twelve games and we're up. You need to get out more! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBigDog Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 I don't see what the problem is. Win our next twelve games and we're up. When you put it like that it just seems so easy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scapegoat Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 We have dropped too many points recently (last 2 months) to be realistically thinking about automatic, so results like those last night that put more distance between the chasing pack and the top 6 are good in my opinion. Play-off berth is an achieveable target. To be honest I'm far less bothered about whether we finish 3rd or 6th as I am about the form/performances in the last few games. Would prefer to pick up 10 out the last 12 and nick 6th off Leeds / Tranmere on the last day than be in 4th spot with a a defeat and a couple of draws in the last 4. Play-off performance is about form not position (though they can be one and the same). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego_Sideburns Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 We have dropped too many points recently (last 2 months) to be realistically thinking about automatic, so results like those last night that put more distance between the chasing pack and the top 6 are good in my opinion. Play-off berth is an achieveable target. To be honest I'm far less bothered about whether we finish 3rd or 6th as I am about the form/performances in the last few games. Would prefer to pick up 10 out the last 12 and nick 6th off Leeds / Tranmere on the last day than be in 4th spot with a a defeat and a couple of draws in the last 4. Play-off performance is about form not position (though they can be one and the same). Spot on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego_Sideburns Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 We. Need. To. Be. Doing. Better... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24hoursfromtulsehill Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 (edited) A Leicester statistician has calculated the points needed for automatic promotion and the Play-offs. The (mean) average points total over the last 20 years in order to make second place is 85 points. The points attained has varied from 91 to 81, We are currently on 49 points with 17 games to play. This would therefore require a further 36 points out of a remaining 51 points to play for. Winning at home and drawing away will average two points per game = 34 points, probably not quite enough. The (mean) average points total over the last 20 years in order to make sixth place is 75 points. It has varied from 82 to 69. We are currently on 49 points with 17 games to play. This would therefore require a further 26 points out of a remaining 51 points to play for. Winning the 8 home games would give us 24 points and picking up a couple from away games should be sufficient. Of course we can’t guarantee winning at home. Effectively we can only afford to drop 25 points during the remaining games for a Play-off place. Having said all that, we could require more or fewer points. Who knows Thanks Diego. It's much clearer now. Edited February 4, 2009 by 24hoursfromtulsehill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Can I not have a conversation without the correction police sticking a sophistic oar into the proceedings? Give it a rest... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego_Sideburns Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Can I not have a conversation without the correction police sticking a sophistic oar into the proceedings? Give it a rest... We. Need. To. Be. Doing. Better... Can I not have a conversation without the moderator sticking a sarcastic oar into the proceedings? Give it a rest... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrikkiNikki Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 A Leicester statistician has calculated the points needed for automatic promotion and the Play-offs. The (mean) average points total over the last 20 years in order to make second place is 85 points. The points attained has varied from 91 to 81, We are currently on 49 points with 17 games to play. This would therefore require a further 36 points out of a remaining 51 points to play for. Winning at home and drawing away will average two points per game = 34 points, probably not quite enough. The (mean) average points total over the last 20 years in order to make sixth place is 75 points. It has varied from 82 to 69. We are currently on 49 points with 17 games to play. This would therefore require a further 26 points out of a remaining 51 points to play for. Winning the 8 home games would give us 24 points and picking up a couple from away games should be sufficient. Of course we can’t guarantee winning at home. Effectively we can only afford to drop 25 points during the remaining games for a Play-off place. Having said all that, we could require more or fewer points. Who knows Ooooh! My head! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Can I not have a conversation without the moderator sticking a sarcastic oar into the proceedings? Give it a rest... Sarcastic? What on Earth are you gibbering on about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego_Sideburns Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Sarcastic? What on Earth are you gibbering on about? Following your drawing my attention to my inclusion of a stray full stop the other day, you replied to one of my posts today with a full stpp after each word in a sentence. If that's not the lowest form of wit, what is it? Keyboard bullying, possibly because I had the temerity to point out an apostrophe lost in the changed layout? You tell me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Nope. Wrong again mate. It was to really emphasise that we actually do need to do better, like banging ones fist on a table in the short pause between words. I read a book written more or less like that, with short sentances with full stops. It made my head hurt. Maybe I could've done : We - Need - To - Do - Better ...but it didn't look right. So calm down and stop being so jumpy, the excessive full stops were not a dig at you - in fact, I'm shocked that you think I would carry something on to that length. Our little head to head was done and dusted days ago - move on, no need to keep bringing it up again now is there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego_Sideburns Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 ..we need to be doing better in the points averages from now on, better than we have been doing since the start of the season. We. Need. To. Be. Doing. Better.... Nope. Wrong again mate. It was to really emphasise that we actually do need to do better, like banging ones fist on a table in the short pause between words. I read a book written more or less like that, with short sentances with full stops. It made my head hurt. Maybe I could've done : We - Need - To - Do - Better ...but it didn't look right. So calm down and stop being so jumpy, the excessive full stops were not a dig at you - in fact, I'm shocked that you think I would carry something on to that length. Our little head to head was done and dusted days ago - move on, no need to keep bringing it up again now is there? That's what I thought, but I would never in a million years have put your interpretation on what you wrote. I'm happy to put a full stop to all this and the sooner that apostrophe is reinstated, the sooner I'll be able to remove my sticker from the screen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 That's what I thought, but I would never in a million years have put your interpretation on what you wrote. I'm happy to put a full stop to all this and the sooner that apostrophe is reinstated, the sooner I'll be able to remove my sticker from the screen. ...but it didn't look right. So calm down and stop being so jumpy, the excessive full stops were not a dig at you - in fact, I'm shocked that you think I would carry something on to that length. Our little head to head was done and dusted days ago - move on, no need to keep bringing it up again now is there? To add to the highlights - I think that bit above is key, and is crucial as to how this ends right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 That's what I thought, but I would never in a million years have put your interpretation on what you wrote. I'm happy to put a full stop to all this and the sooner that apostrophe is reinstated, the sooner I'll be able to remove my sticker from the screen. Hey. Rummy. Didn't your parents ever tell you..... (imagine getting a clip round the back of your head after each word....) Respect. Your. Elders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Hey. Rummy. Didn't your parents ever tell you..... (imagine getting a clip round the back of your head after each word....) Respect. Your. Elders. They did! I do! Where it is due, and within reason... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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