I posted this before the season started
For the last couple of seasons I've looked at the fixtures ahead and tried to plot what we have to do to get promotion (yes I know but it's better than working)
In the past 7 years the following points totals have got second place
07/08-82
06/07-85
05/06-79
04/05-86
03/04-83
02/03-86
01/02-84
The higher points totals tend to come when someone runs away at the top e.g Wigan or Luton which i think may happen this year so I would say 85 should be the number to look at.
I reckon this would mean 25 wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats
So 4 sides who we will only get one point off from the 2 games against them
Brighton, Huddersfield, Leicester, Leeds
7sides who we will get 3 point off from the 2 games against them
Colchester,MKD,Northampton,Millwall,Scunthorpe, Southend,Peterborough,
6 sides who we will get 4 points off from the 2 games against them
Bristol R,Carlisle,Stockport,Cheltenham, Tranmere,Walsall
6sides who we will get 6 points off from the 2 games against them
Crewe,Hartlepool, Leyton O, Hereford, Yeovil, Swindon
The problem last year were the 6 pointers I predicted which just didn't happen as we really struggled against some of the lower teams. The bonuses were against Leeds,Swansea and Tranmere. The crap start always meant we were about 6/7 points behind where i predicted we should be throughout the season and that ended up being the defecit more of less.
Anyway lets see what happens, can't wait!
So far I've got 9 out of 20 right! We are up on the sides I thought might be up there (2 of them aren't) and down on the games against the strugglers (who i seem to have got right)
This year no one looks like they will run away with it so the 2nd spot should be less than 85. However there does seem to be a bit of an anomaly in that the top 6/7 are pulling away and the bottom 7/8 are losing ground already, so it maybe the points for going up are high and for staying up are low. You will see that our next 2 games are against my '6 pointers' therefore must be won.