sjk2008 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 It’s quiet at work at the moment, and last night’s derby win has got me a little giddy again. I was looking at our remaining fixtures, and how we’ve done already this season, and it got me thinking about what kind of run-in we have, as well as whether the opinion that we’ve done better against the better teams still holds any merit. The table on the left is sorted in order of each of the teams League 1 as it is now, and how we’ve performed against each of the teams. The table on the right is sorted in order of how successful we’ve been against each of the teams in League 1. Using the table on the left, you can see we’ve got 23pts from teams in the top half (with 4 games against that calibre of opposition still to play), and 29pts from teams in the bottom half (also with 4 games against that calibre of opposition still to play). Straight away that tells me we’ve fared slightly better against the lower half teams. What is clear, is that we certainly perform a lot better against the “mid-table” sides (or in other words, those below playoffs and above relegation). We’re truly :censored:e against the bottom 4. 4/24 pts is all we’ve got. Considering we’re only 4pts off the playoffs, you could well say we’ve thrown away a great chance of making them looking at that return of points. We’ve done the double over Rochdale, Fleetwood & Scunthorpe – all recently promoted sides. Out of the 8 remaining sides we’ve still to face this season, only Bristol City have beaten us. Looking at our run-in, Bristol City aside, you probably couldn’t pick much better looking at how we’ve done this season. 5 games against mid-table sides, and 2 against lower playoff sides we’ve drawn away to already. All our away games are against teams lower than us, but thankfully not bottom 4 calibre, and all home games against those within a few points above us, with the exception of Bristol City. Of course this is all statistics at the end of the day, and fairly meaningless to some, but it passed half an hour for me anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookersstandandy Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) In the time we have spent in this godforsaken league, 6th place has required the following points tally and resultant goal difference If we were to repeat the points tally we achieved against those teams we are yet to play, that would result in 13 more and a total of 65. Maximum points in our remaining 8 games would only see us to 76..... then there's the GD conundrum of which we're currently in negative equity. 13/14 Peterborough 74Pts +14GD 12/13 Swindon 74Pts +33GD 11/12 Stevenage 73Pts +25GD 10/11 Bournemouth 71Pts +21GD 09/10 Huddersfield 80Pts +26GD 08/09 Scunthorpe 76Pts +19GD 07/08 Southend 76Pts +15GD 06/07 Latics 75Pts +22GD 05/06 Swansea 71Pts +23GD 04/05 Hartlepool 71Pts +10GD 03/04 Hartlepool 73Pts +15GD 02/03 Cardiff 81Pts +25GD 01/02 Huddersfield 78Pts +18GD 00/01 Wigan 75Pts +11GD 99/00 Stoke 82Pts +26GD 98/99 Wigan 76Pts +27GD 97/98 Fulham 70Pts +17GD Average 75Pts +20GD. Edited March 25, 2015 by lookersstandandy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsslatic Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Has sixth required those number of points or obtained those number of points? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzlatic Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Last year: 6th Peterborough: 74pts +14 7th Sheff United: 67pts +2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cornishblue Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Looking at the current table and the games we have to play. If we picked up the same amount of points as we have done already against the teams we still have to play = 13points It will give us 65 points which is not going to be good enough for a play off spot. 8 games left I reckon we need to win 6 of them which will be 70 points even then only 1 team in 16 years has made it to the play offs with so few points and that was in 97/98 season. The way the table is though it could well be that a team who gets 65-68 points may well get 6th spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueatheart Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I can see it being a lower total this season, there are a lot of teams in the mixer and none really outshine the others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookersstandandy Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Fair question. Obtained is the answer, I have appended below (required) as one more [because our current GD is rubbish] than 7th place. In an instance where (required) is one more than obtained, that is because 6th was achieved on GD: 13/14 Peterborough 74Pts (68Pts) +14GD 12/13 Swindon 74Pts (72Pts) +33GD 11/12 Stevenage 73Pts (74Pts) +25GD 10/11 Bournemouth 71Pts (71Pts) +21GD 09/10 Huddersfield 80Pts (74Pts) +26GD 08/09 Scunthorpe 76Pts (75Pts) +19GD 07/08 Southend 76Pts (70Pts) +15GD 06/07 Latics 75Pts (73Pts) +22GD 05/06 Swansea 71Pts (70Pts) +23GD 04/05 Hartlepool 71Pts (71Pts) +10GD 03/04 Hartlepool 73Pts (74Pts) +15GD 02/03 Cardiff 81Pts (81Pts) +25GD 01/02 Huddersfield 78Pts (74Pts) +18GD 00/01 Wigan 75Pts (74Pts) +11GD 99/00 Stoke 82Pts (81Pts) +26GD 98/99 Wigan 76Pts (77Pts) +27GD 97/98 Fulham 70Pts (71Pts) +17GD Average 75Pts (73Pts) +20GD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookersstandandy Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 ....as an aside, in 02/03 Tranmere got 80 points and finished 7th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzlatic Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Fair question. Obtained is the answer, I have appended below (required) as one more [because our current GD is rubbish] than 7th place. In an instance where (required) is one more than obtained, that is because 6th was achieved on GD: 13/14 Peterborough 74Pts (68Pts) +14GD 12/13 Swindon 74Pts (72Pts) +33GD 11/12 Stevenage 73Pts (74Pts) +25GD 10/11 Bournemouth 71Pts (71Pts) +21GD 09/10 Huddersfield 80Pts (74Pts) +26GD 08/09 Scunthorpe 76Pts (75Pts) +19GD 07/08 Southend 76Pts (70Pts) +15GD 06/07 Latics 75Pts (73Pts) +22GD 05/06 Swansea 71Pts (70Pts) +23GD 04/05 Hartlepool 71Pts (71Pts) +10GD 03/04 Hartlepool 73Pts (74Pts) +15GD 02/03 Cardiff 81Pts (81Pts) +25GD 01/02 Huddersfield 78Pts (74Pts) +18GD 00/01 Wigan 75Pts (74Pts) +11GD 99/00 Stoke 82Pts (81Pts) +26GD 98/99 Wigan 76Pts (77Pts) +27GD 97/98 Fulham 70Pts (71Pts) +17GD Average 75Pts (73Pts) +20GD. 6 times in this list 71 points has been good enough to get you in the play offs. Tough ask but not impossible if that was the case this year. Which, given the number of teams still in with a chance, could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookersstandandy Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 6 times in this list 71 points has been good enough to get you in the play offs. Tough ask but not impossible if that was the case this year. Which, given the number of teams still in with a chance, could happen. That would require 19 points from 8 games.... or 6 wins and a draw.... leaving room for 2 defeats. However it's dressed up, it still seems very very unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SavageTheBeast Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) I think it will be less this year with teams still having to play each other I reckon 70 will do it. The team who's going to put a run of 4 results in the next month will clinch the final spot Edited March 25, 2015 by SavageTheBeast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzlatic Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 That would require 19 points from 8 games.... or 6 wins and a draw.... leaving room for 2 defeats. However it's dressed up, it still seems very very unlikely. Totally agree. But looking at the table from this day last year it's quite similar. Top 5 look sorted, lot of congestion down to 11th. If we needed 68 points for the playoffs like last year that makes it a little bit more achievable... 1 Wolves 38 83 2 Brentford 37 79 3 Leyton O 39 76 4 Rotherham 38 72 5 Preston 39 72 6 Peterboro 38 58 7 MK Dons 39 55 8 Swindon 39 54 9 Walsall 39 53 10 Sheff Utd 37 51 11 Port Vale 38 50 Got that info from here... http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=Leagues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oafcmetty Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 You can have a play with the remaining fixtures here: http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator2.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookersstandandy Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Got that info from here... http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=Leagues Hmmm.... so I've now added - where available - the [points tally] the team that finished 6th had after 38 games.... I'm still struggling.... if I'd have seen just one team on 52 points I might've perked up. 13/14 Peterborough 74Pts (68Pts) [58Pts] +14GD 12/13 Swindon 74Pts (72Pts) [66Pts] +33GD 11/12 Stevenage 73Pts (74Pts) [58Pts] +25GD 10/11 Bournemouth 71Pts (71Pts) [62Pts] +21GD 09/10 Huddersfield 80Pts (74Pts) [62Pts] +26GD 08/09 Scunthorpe 76Pts (75Pts) [64Pts] +19GD 07/08 Southend 76Pts (70Pts) [59Pts] +15GD 06/07 Latics 75Pts (73Pts) [63Pts] +22GD 05/06 Swansea 71Pts (70Pts) [63Pts] +23GD 04/05 Hartlepool 71Pts (71Pts) [61Pts] +10GD 03/04 Hartlepool 73Pts (74Pts) [57Pts] +15GD 02/03 Cardiff 81Pts (81Pts) [73Pts] +25GD 01/02 Huddersfield 78Pts (74Pts) [66Pts] +18GD 00/01 Wigan 75Pts (74Pts) [61Pts] +11GD 99/00 Stoke 82Pts (81Pts) [n/a] +26GD 98/99 Wigan 76Pts (77Pts) [n/a] +27GD 97/98 Fulham 70Pts (71Pts) [n/a] +17GD Average 75Pts (73Pts) [62Pts] +20GD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_Og Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Remarkable that only 3 of those teams (+ us) are in this division, and that Hartlepool twice made theplay offs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scapegoat Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I think that this analysis says that without an amazing last 8 games we are looking to just finish as high and with as many points as possible. I'd take 65 points and 8-10th spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzlatic Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Hmmm.... so I've now added - where available - the [points tally] the team that finished 6th had after 38 games.... I'm still struggling.... if I'd have seen just one team on 52 points I might've perked up. 13/14 Peterborough 74Pts (68Pts) [58Pts] +14GD 12/13 Swindon 74Pts (72Pts) [66Pts] +33GD 11/12 Stevenage 73Pts (74Pts) [58Pts] +25GD 10/11 Bournemouth 71Pts (71Pts) [62Pts] +21GD 09/10 Huddersfield 80Pts (74Pts) [62Pts] +26GD 08/09 Scunthorpe 76Pts (75Pts) [64Pts] +19GD 07/08 Southend 76Pts (70Pts) [59Pts] +15GD 06/07 Latics 75Pts (73Pts) [63Pts] +22GD 05/06 Swansea 71Pts (70Pts) [63Pts] +23GD 04/05 Hartlepool 71Pts (71Pts) [61Pts] +10GD 03/04 Hartlepool 73Pts (74Pts) [57Pts] +15GD 02/03 Cardiff 81Pts (81Pts) [73Pts] +25GD 01/02 Huddersfield 78Pts (74Pts) [66Pts] +18GD 00/01 Wigan 75Pts (74Pts) [61Pts] +11GD 99/00 Stoke 82Pts (81Pts) [n/a] +26GD 98/99 Wigan 76Pts (77Pts) [n/a] +27GD 97/98 Fulham 70Pts (71Pts) [n/a] +17GD Average 75Pts (73Pts) [62Pts] +20GD. What about if any of the teams that finished 7th had 51 points after 38 games? I'm determined to seed a stat that keeps the dream alive!! Actually, just looked myself and last year Sheffield Utd were on 51 points after 38 games and finished 7th with 67 points and a +2 goal difference. It's on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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