Brexit Negotiations

[Matt]

New topic for ongoing EU/UK negotiations which will plot how much the hard working British people will get bummed by those politicians who claim to care so much.

 

***

 

David Davies says that there will be 30-40% tariffs on meat and dairy.

[opinions4u]

Worrying about the impact on Danish bacon now.

[leeslover]

I certainly hope that's not the plan. It might be a bit of willy waving to show the impact UK tariffs could have on EU sectors (that would do Ireland serious damage). We should be asking why any tariffs need to be added when the EU is committed to lowering them.

[kowenicki]

82% of the electorate voted for parties committed to Brexit.

 

There should be cross party collaboration on this to enable a smoother process and a consistent approach.

 

 

[opinions4u]

5 hours ago, kowenicki said:

82% of the electorate voted for parties committed to Brexit.

 

There should be cross party collaboration on this to enable a smoother process and a consistent approach.

 

 

 

While I would have agreed a couple of weeks back, none of them would be able to resist the temptation to bring the government toppling over should the opportunity now arise.

[leeslover]

Interesting opening gambit from the EU side there. The offer on EU nationals and British ex-pats held nothing back on what pretty much everyone thinks should be done. Tusk says it's a no-go unless the European Court can enforce it. Putting that together with the insistence on making us pay a fortune to leave and it's clearly a high stakes game. It's not about what's best for the people involved, it's about defending The Project. The strategy has rolled Greece over a few times, time will tell if it works here.

[beag_teeets]

Can we sends the DUPs to do the negotiations? They seem to be much better than the shambles we've sent.

[Matt]

4 hours ago, beag_teeets said:

Can we sends the DUPs to do the negotiations? They seem to be much better than the shambles we've sent.

 

£1.5bn for the Occupied Territory, not bad - not bad at all.

[Matt]

I saw the headline in the Sunday Express yesterday which was interesting because I have just read/listened to a Paul Foot Investigative Journalism Award nominee about the exact same topic...

 

 

EU fishing quotas are actually divvied up by the UK Government, so when the Sunday Express, Mail and Nigel Farage claim that Brussels are telling us who fishes where, that's not the case - 61% of the UK Fishing Quota Allowance (FQA) has been dished out by the UK Government to just three companies, Interfish, Vrolijk, and AM International (Marrfish) - these three companies then can sub lease the FQA for extortionate prices effectively pricing the local UK fishermen.

 

The UK Government has effectively handed the majority of the UK FQA's to three fishing companies to do what they want, and pointed a finger of blame at Brussels.

 

The podcast article starts around 8.44...

 

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/05/15/investigation-big-fish-quota-barons-squeeze-out-small-scale-fishermen/

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/05/15/investigation-why-this-tiny-boat-has-more-fishing-rights-than-many-trawlers/

 

[Matt]

Brexit trade deal on the table: McCholrinated Chicken, halal of course. I can't wait for commentators to fume over this.

 

I think chlorine washed chicken is the least of our worries.

[beag_teeets]

I've had a few things going on so haven't been keeping my usually nerd eye on politics and current affairs but when I do have a little catch up I have to say that I'm not sure that our Brave British Boys and doing so well with the Brexit negotiations. I can't make my mind up whether it is incompetence or the biggest dirty protest since the Maze Prison days.

[leeslover]

I would imagine BMW checked in with their government before deciding to expand production in Britain.

[beag_teeets]

8 hours ago, leeslover said:

I would imagine BMW checked in with their government before deciding to expand production in Britain.

 

Sound investment, there's gonna be a lot of cheap labour soon.

[leeslover]

1 hour ago, beag_teeets said:

 

Sound investment, there's gonna be a lot of cheap labour soon.

So BMW are building their tree hugger electric cars for export to the EU because we have skilled mechanics and engineers on minimum wage? I fear that you would rather see bad news to confirm your views than accept that things will be fine with the declining EU as well as far better with the rest of the world 

[beag_teeets]

I disagree that I'd rather see bad news. I wasn't a remainer, I spoiled my paper by drawing my own box, putting 'Fucked either way" and voting for that. It is far too early to tell what the effects of leaving European institutions will be, the odd manufacturer continuing a pre-ordained extension is neither here nor there.

 

In my gut leaving is wrong, in a shrinking and unstable world it makes no sense to leave one of the biggest power blocks in the world, but there are massive reforms that are needed within it - which wasn't on the ballot, sadly. Instead we had "... or do you want what it is in the box?" But there were two boxes and none of us knew what the contents were. 

 

Not wishing to revisit the abysmal, nonsensical and fact-free exercise that was the referendum, once we actually know what Brexit is at the end of the 'negotiations' I would like to see an independent commission analyse the deal and highlight the differences, benefits and losses of leaving contrasted against remaining before going back for a more factually based referendum.

 

There is more to this than just pounds and shillings, the Euratom deal for one for example, shows that 40-50 years of history can't be wiped out with the stroke of a pen in 30 seconds  

[opinions4u]

5 hours ago, beag_teeets said:

I disagree that I'd rather see bad news. I wasn't a remainer, I spoiled my paper by drawing my own box, putting 'Fucked either way" and voting for that. It is far too early to tell what the effects of leaving European institutions will be, the odd manufacturer continuing a pre-ordained extension is neither here nor there.

 

In my gut leaving is wrong, in a shrinking and unstable world it makes no sense to leave one of the biggest power blocks in the world, but there are massive reforms that are needed within it - which wasn't on the ballot, sadly. Instead we had "... or do you want what it is in the box?" But there were two boxes and none of us knew what the contents were. 

 

Not wishing to revisit the abysmal, nonsensical and fact-free exercise that was the referendum, once we actually know what Brexit is at the end of the 'negotiations' I would like to see an independent commission analyse the deal and highlight the differences, benefits and losses of leaving contrasted against remaining before going back for a more factually based referendum.

 

There is more to this than just pounds and shillings, the Euratom deal for one for example, shows that 40-50 years of history can't be wiped out with the stroke of a pen in 30 seconds  

 

Cameron went swanning off to Europe seeking reform in the months before the referendum.

 

The installation showed it had no interest in making any changes.

 

So the majority of those voting told the EU where to go.

 

 

[Matt]

16 hours ago, opinions4u said:

 

So the majority of those voting told the EU where to go.

 

 

 

Which is fine, but now - what do we want? Where is it going? What's on offer? Yes, yes - they're the politicians and it's their job - but, to be frank - they're shite at it.

 

How do we know we're getting the best deal possible? If it's rubbish at the end of it all and the negotiation team say 'That's the best' - who are we to say otherwise? I have a sense that we're just getting whatever we can, not whatever we want.

[leeslover]

No deal is actually better than a shit deal. Our prosperity doesn't rely on the Single Market.

[beag_teeets]

1 hour ago, leeslover said:

No deal is actually better than a shit deal. Our prosperity doesn't rely on the Single Market.

 

I think no deal will be far worse than having remained under the existing regulations but we've painted ourselves into multiple corners with facile statements like 'Brexit means Brexit' and going from a 4% difference in those that voted to "Hard Brexit at all costs"...

 

There might be a whole world out there just waiting to purchase those famous British products such as arms and cars made by foreign owned companies but we lack the naval dominance that enabled us to park gunships off the coast and force those damned foreign types to trade on terms favourable to us. 

 

This touches everything from food standards to having radioactive material to perform cancer treatments yet it is being handled as a philosophical argument in a cosy gentleman's club. I was reading over the weekend that it is predicted it will take about 30 years before we feel the positive effects of Brexit, a blink of an eye in terms of history but a ridiculous gamble given the context of coming on the heals of the global recession, Trump and the multiple crises in the middle east and North Africa. We will never know what could've been achieved in 30 years via negotiations within the European Institutions, the aims of leaving weren't spelled out and the associated costs were never declared. We've heard we send £X amounts to Europe but the returns on this are never stated, tangible and intangible.

 

I'd like to see the politics and the short termism taken out of the negotiations. An independent body should be established populated by 'experts' in the areas that Brexit will touch and a detailed deal worked out collaboratively that would enable a sensible and informed decision to be made and ratified by the people and Parliament. The fact that this paragraph will be incendiary to so many shows the paucity of the standard of debate and facts around this subject.

[GlossopLatic]

On 7/31/2017 at 8:12 AM, leeslover said:

No deal is actually better than a shit deal. Our prosperity doesn't rely on the Single Market.

 

No deal is a bad deal though why make it more difficult to trade with our biggest trading partner.

 

I see you've still got your head buried in the sand on this issue.

[leeslover]

9 hours ago, GlossopLatic said:

 

No deal is a bad deal though why make it more difficult to trade with our biggest trading partner.

 

I see you've still got your head buried in the sand on this issue.

Most of our trade is with ourselves and that would be much easier. But who on the British side is proposing to make trade with the EU harder?

[GlossopLatic]

On 8/12/2017 at 3:54 PM, leeslover said:

Most of our trade is with ourselves and that would be much easier. But who on the British side is proposing to make trade with the EU harder?

 

Knowone is on this on this side but it won't be down to us it it will be down to them on how much access they want us to have to a market of over 440 million, compared to our market of 64 million. 

 

As we've investigated this divorce it's not in the EU's interest to do what's best for Britain. In fact it's the polar opposite. 

[leeslover]

1 hour ago, GlossopLatic said:

 

Knowone is on this on this side but it won't be down to us it it will be down to them on how much access they want us to have to a market of over 440 million, compared to our market of 64 million. 

 

As we've investigated this divorce it's not in the EU's interest to do what's best for Britain. In fact it's the polar opposite. 

But again - a German firm which is very powerful in their government seems to think they'll be fine making cars in England to sell to the EU. They do a lot of their trade selling other cars from Germany to us. The EU side are realising that they need London (or course Paris can handle Euro clearing while Tokyo and New York can't do their own domestically). A deal very likely will be done because they want a bung to pay their bills for a few years. If not just use the bung saving to cut taxes on business, it will offset minor costs imposed on exporters to Europe and also help exports to the successful growing parts of the world.

[GlossopLatic]

1 hour ago, leeslover said:

But again - a German firm which is very powerful in their government seems to think they'll be fine making cars in England to sell to the EU. They do a lot of their trade selling other cars from Germany to us. The EU side are realising that they need London (or course Paris can handle Euro clearing while Tokyo and New York can't do their own domestically). A deal very likely will be done because they want a bung to pay their bills for a few years. If not just use the bung saving to cut taxes on business, it will offset minor costs imposed on exporters to Europe and also help exports to the successful growing parts of the world.

 

And yet at a time when the rest of the worlds economies are now firing on all cylinders ours is looking sluggish our currency has been battered by Euro in the last 12 months (its put £20 million on the value of neymars transfer alone) all the EU nations economies are growing at a faster rate than ours is.

 

Not only that but it's highly likely that we will adopt the vast majority of EU laws. It's in everyones interest if we pursue associate member status such as what Switzerland and Norway have so that big German car makers (which want to invest in Oxfordshire which voted remain in the referendum) can invest in us and we can still easily export to Europe. We leave the EU and don't do as much damage our economy in the process.

 

 

[leeslover]

19 minutes ago, GlossopLatic said:

 

And yet at a time when the rest of the worlds economies are now firing on all cylinders ours is looking sluggish our currency has been battered by Euro in the last 12 months (its put £20 million on the value of neymars transfer alone) all the EU nations economies are growing at a faster rate than ours is.

 

Not only that but it's highly likely that we will adopt the vast majority of EU laws. It's in everyones interest if we pursue associate member status such as what Switzerland and Norway have so that big German car makers can invest in us and we can still easily export to Europe. We leave the EU and don't do as much damage our economy in the process.

 

 

Without wishing to be rude, that is very much what George Osborne is saying in his editorials these days, and he isn't an expert forecaster (or expert anything).

 

UK growth has outstripped most of the developed world in economic growth since Brexit. If you choose to pick a month when it's not so good then go on. Germany is still growing well and sending it's money to other EU countries to buy it's goods. The rest, not so well. 

 

Neymar was traded in Euros, and I don't care what anyone paid for the show pony.

 

The pound hasn't been battered by the Euro. It was overpriced as it was seen as a safe haven for when the Eurozone goes to shut,  when one of Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy or (whisper it) France goes pop.

 

We will adopt EU law because it's current UK law. We can then change it. However, it makes it extremely hard for the EU to impose tariffs under TWO as they can't claim we can't meet their standards.

 

UK business confidence ratings are at the highest for years. So are order books. Companies have the highest levels of inventories for years in anticipation of new orders. Remember people complaining about companies sitting on cash? Manufacturers are especially positive.

 

But we don't have to follow the rules that are turning one of the richest regions in the world into a second rate player.

 

Bugger.