The run-ins...

[Scapegoat]

A bit bored so spent a bit of time having a look at the table, fixtures and form of the bottom of League One. Have assumed that Bury, already on 50 points with 7 games to go are safe and not looked at them, and also assumed that Crewe and Colchester are doomed. The following is the assessment of everyone else down at the bottom:

 

Shrewsbury

 

On 46 points with 8 games to play and on an impressive run of form with 1 defeat in the last 10 (1.7 points per game).

 

They do have a tough looking run of games to go having to 5 of the current top 6 (3 away from home), but also have 3 games against mid-table teams (2 of which are home) that will have nothing to play for.

 

I'd have thought that whilst not a great run in, you look at their points total and the teams they have left to play and they would stay up.

 

However the order of the games makes it much more challenging, they play current Top 6 sides in 5 of their next 6 games. If they get on a bad run through that then they could find themselves in a bit of a mess.

 

Verdict? Stay up, but perhaps not as comfortably as it looks at the moment.

 

Chesterfield

 

On 43 points with 7 to play and on an average run of form with 3 defeats, 4 draws and 3 wins (1.3 points per game)

 

Run in looks favourable with 2 games against the current top 7 (both away), but 4 games against mid table plays a home game against Doncaster.

 

Verdict? Think that they will be OK and stay up with a few points to spare.

 

Blackpool

 

On 42 points but crucially only have 6 games left to play and current form is not great with 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats (0.9 points per game).

 

Run in looks like it could be OK. Two games against fellow strugglers, two mid table and 2 promotion chasers. That said with only 6 games left they don't have a lot of room for error.

 

Verdict? Think that they will also be close to the edge of the safety line....but I think they will falter and go down.

 

 

Fleetwood

 

On 41 points and 8 to play and on an average run of form with 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats (1.2 point per game).

 

Run looks OK. 3 games against fellow strugglers, 3 mid table teams and a couple of away games against the play-off contenders.

 

Verdict? Think that it will be a close run thing that will go right to the end, but think they will stay up.

 

Donacaster

 

37 points with 7 to go and on the kind of run of form that gives you nightmares with 1 draw and nine defeats (0.1 points per game)

 

Run in is not easy with their last 4 home games all against top 9 sides pushing for promotion, with a couple of away games against other teams battling for survival.

 

Verdict? Cannot see anything other than relegation.

 

Oldham

 

41 points with 8 to play and on a pretty good run of form with 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats (1.6 points per game)

 

Run in isn't a cake walk, with 3 games against the current top seven plus 2 relegation dog fights.

 

Verdict? Think that we will get enough to stay up, but think we might need points or other games to go our way on the last day of the season to be sure.

 

 

Think that we will finish 19th and probably a couple of points clear of the drop-zone with probably Fleetwood the last team to survive.

 

[kowenicki]

I did the Grimsby forum predictor and have us finishing on 49 points, I was definitely head over heart in those predictions too.

 

I too think we finish 19th and Blackpool, along with Donny, Colchester and Crewe will drop.

Edited March 29, 2016 by kowenicki

[HarryBosch]

We'll be absolutely fine.

 

No doubt whatsoever that Bove and Tuohy will be getting their annual run out against Coventry...

[the_mighty_bosh]

After last night's result I think Colchester still have an outside chance of beating the drop. 7 points is still a fair gap to make up but they have just got back-to-back wins.

 

On the flip side, Coventry look like having nothing to play for on the final day as their terrible form continues.

[JohnnyPimp]

On the flip side, Coventry look like having nothing to play for on the final day as their terrible form continues.

Do you remember Bradford coming here with nothing to play for on the last day of the 2004-05 season, with us needing to win to stay up?

 

They scared the living daylights out of us!

[SavageTheBeast]

Will Colchester do it again like every other year and survive?

[sjk2008]

Will Colchester do it again like every other year and survive?

Can't help but think this little revival of there's is a few games too late.

 

7pts behind is some distance.

[singe]

With a couple of injuries, anything could happen.

[Twisbrogan]

If people are saying that we'll need 51/52 points to survive this season then surely Colchester need to be written off. They'd need to win five and draw the other two. They've gone - they may as well go on holiday now.

Edited March 30, 2016 by Twisbrogan

[L1onheartNew]

If people are saying that we'll need 51/52 points to survive this season then surely Colchester need to be written off. They'd need to win five and draw the other two. They've gone - they may as well go on holiday now.

Relegation, woawoh relegation, woawoh relegation's what you need.

If you wanna be the best, if you wanna beat the rest, woawoh, relegation's what you need.

 

Edit: too many beers and have been singing it to my Villa mate all night

Edited April 1, 2016 by L1onheartNew

[Ritchierich]

If people are saying that we'll need 51/52 points to survive this season then surely Colchester need to be written off. They'd need to win five and draw the other two. They've gone - they may as well go on holiday now.

 

in fairness they appear to have been on holiday for most of the season

[sjk2008]

Chesterfield (6)

 

Barnsley (A)

Sheffield United (H)

Doncaster Rovers (H)

Swindon Town (A)

Bury (H)

Bradford City (A)

 

Shrewsbury Town (7)

 

Millwall (A)

Bradford City (H)

Sheffield United (H)

Gillingham (A)

Walsall (A)

Peterborough United (H)

Swindon Town (A)

 

Fleetwood Town (6)

 

Southend United (A)

Oldham Athletic (H)

Millwall (A)

Blackpool (H)

Walsall (A)

Crewe Alexandra (H)

 

Blackpool (5)

 

Colchester United (H)

Rochdale (A)

Fleetwood Town (A)

Wigan Athletic (H)

Peterborough United (A)

 

Oldham Athletic (7)

 

Walsall (H)

Barnsley (A)

Fleetwood Town (A)

Southend United (A)

Crewe Alexandra (H)

Millwall (A)

Coventry City (H)

[youngen]

The weekend where we beat Crewe and Blackpool get beaten at Fleetwood will see us safe

[L1onheartNew]

You may want to add Swindon to that list. When they get beaten by Bratfurt on the weekend, it will be squeaky bum time.

 

Bury should despatch Donny which would leave them relatively safe, then they have Swindon away to make doubly sure.

 

Still think Blackpool. Their fans even want them to lose

[sjk2008]

You may want to add Swindon to that list. When they get beaten by Bratfurt on the weekend, it will be squeaky bum time.

 

Bury should despatch Donny which would leave them relatively safe, then they have Swindon away to make doubly sure.

 

Still think Blackpool. Their fans even want them to lose

The bottom 3 are down already. I think that's a given.

 

There's absolutely no way Latics, Chesterfield, Shrewsbury, Blackpool & Fleetwood will all finish above either Swindon or Bury.

 

Swindon & Bury are safe.

[yarddog73]

Current relegation odds

 

Colchester 1/100

Crewe 1/33

Doncaster 1/10

Blackpool 6/4

Oldham 3/1

Shrewsbury 6/1

Fleetwood 13/2

Chesterfield 8/1

Swindon 100/1

Bury 150/1

[sjk2008]

Shrewsbury at 6s could be worth a tenner

[SavageTheBeast]

Still think Blackpool will go

[yarddog73]

Shrewsbury are 6's with Betway, best priced on the High Street is 11/2 with Corals.

 

3/1 is as big as we have been for a long time, it appears the bookies think that we may well do it at Blackpool's expense.

[Magister]

Shrewsbury are 6's with Betway, best priced on the High Street is 11/2 with Corals.

 

3/1 is as big as we have been for a long time, it appears the bookies think that we may well do it at Blackpool's expense.

Bookies odds don't reflect what they think will happen, they reflect money wagered and risk?

[ghostofcecere]

Fleetwood will feel they're in a decent position with both us and the Donkey Lashers to play at home, I see that game as must not lose rather than must win for us. I'd be feeling a bit nervous if I were Shrewsbury, they've had a decent run but the wheels came off again against Wigan and I reckon that's the toughest run in. Us and Blackpool are the form teams in the mix at the moment (I'm counting Colchester as already being down)

[Careca9]

the bottom 3 have gone. with everyone picking up steady points just above they will need to get to 52 or 53 to stay up and that would mean winning nearly all their games which wont happen. it will be touch and go, crewe hopefully down when we play them, cov on holiday mode, millwall resting for the play offs are. all our home games are huge as they are all winnable in a poor league. win the 3 at home and i think that would be enough on its own. if not we will need something from the away games, prob fleetwood

[yarddog73]

Bookies odds are set by odds compilers, some firms will cut odds if they see money but generally football odds are set by an individual's opinion.

[deyres42]

Bookies odds are set by odds compilers, some firms will cut odds if they see money but generally football odds are set by an individual's opinion.

Betfair's opinion.

[yarddog73]

Betfair is a different kettle of fish and many of the big firms will lay bets off on Betfair because generally there is far more liquidity in the markets. Plenty of value on Betfair as it is generally one man opinion against another's.