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What's the odds of staying in League 1 for 20 years?


-Each year seven teams leave the division. Chances of staying in the division in a given year are 17 / 24 = 71%.


-The chance of staying in the division for two years running would be (71% x 71%) = 50%. So after two years in the division, a team is equally likely to stay put or leave it.


-Staying put for 20 years would be a (71%) ^ 20 shot = 0.1% or 1 in 989. 


-This assumes that each year a team has an equal chance of finishing in any position. But what if the team has a low crowd, poor budget and in truth is more likely to finish somewhere in the bottom half? In that case the chance of leaving the division would be even higher, at 4 in 12. The chance of staying put for 20 years would be even less likely, at (67%) ^ 20 = 0.03% or 1 in 3,325.


This seems pretty unlikely.


More likely conclusion -- the club is being run in a way that keeps it in the division. Maybe not deliberately. But if all decisions are taken to minimise short-term cash losses while keeping the club afloat, then this will mean selling any saleable assets as soon as possible (players, managers etc) instead of giving them a pay rise, which will prevent us ever going up. The flipside is pumping in emergency resources whenever we are in real danger of going down (change manager, add better loan players etc). 





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I think you've got too much spare time on your hands if you can prepare stats like that. I'm sure the last time we gained promotion we were one of if not the longest serving member of that respective division. I'm sure one of the stattos could prove otherwise if not the case.  And back in those time we were living within our means wheeling and dealing players to balance the books.  We got lucky with some signings and the cup runs and the rest is history.

Edited by johnafoafc
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1 hour ago, pinchmepup said:

So after two years in the division, a team is equally likely to stay put or leave it.







But in any given season you have a 71% chance of not being promoted or relegated, so even in a million seasons, at the start of each season it's statistically more probable that a team will remain in the division.

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21 minutes ago, nzlatic said:

Outside of the long term top flight teams, I wouldn't have though there'd be many clubs as inactive as us!

Thankfully Dale outshine us on this front - 6 division changes since joining the league in the 20s

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