The EU referendum - 23rd June

[opinions4u]

Roughly 1,5 million ex-pats can now benefit from simplified cross-border successions -

 

https://www.google.fr/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjllNeUxo7MAhUGnBoKHRpJCEYQFggiMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fec.europa.eu%2Fjustice%2Fcivil%2Ffamily-matters%2Fsuccessions%2Findex_en.htm&usg=AFQjCNEF1F77HSDusCDo38sVAXzNiXj7Cw

 

Basically means that British inheritance laws apply if deceased is British.

I'm not excited by this perk of membership.

[NewBlue]

I'm not excited by this perk of membership.

The EU is supposed to be boring. Farage and cronies dream of it being functionalist...

[piglinbland]

Staying in the EU is also a risk. They will take it as a green light to continue with their plan of a US of Europe. Mark my words their are far more risks staying in than leaving. If we eave our future is in or own hands (like Latics at the moment). If we stay in we will be subservient to our EU rulers for years to come.

 

5 countries are wanting to join Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. All these countries will be taking money out of the EU, not paying in. Our rebate will again be targeted to fund this expansion or our contribution will rise significantly. Not to mention more people wanting to work here.

 

I received the propaganda brochure the other day. The very 1st point is a blatant lie. Ask any European if the UK has a special status and they will laugh in your face and say "of course not". When was the EU reformed?

 

Even the people saying we should stay in admit the EU doesn't work as it is and needs changing. That's why they can't sing it's praises from the rooftops. They say we need to be in the EU to change it. We have been attempting to do that for over 40 years without success. Why should we expect success in the future. The vast majority of other countries in the EU are happy the way it is because they receive far more from it than they put in. If we leave France may have to start putting money in and the other contributers like Germany will have to fork out more. That's why they need us in.

 

I don't agree with most of this but have to say the EU is guilty of expanding too quickly. IMO we should be at around 18 member states as it stands, I don't think Turkey will be getting accepted any time in the near future.

 

Of course Britain has 'special status' within the union and has since the '80's and Thatcher's famous "I want my money back!" (which she got).

[leeslover]

Corbyn was barely trying to pretend he meant it...

[jimsleftfoot]

Staying in the EU is also a risk. They will take it as a green light to continue with their plan of a US of Europe. Mark my words their are far more risks staying in than leaving. If we eave our future is in or own hands (like Latics at the moment). If we stay in we will be subservient to our EU rulers for years to come.

 

5 countries are wanting to join Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. All these countries will be taking money out of the EU, not paying in. Our rebate will again be targeted to fund this expansion or our contribution will rise significantly. Not to mention more people wanting to work here.

 

I received the propaganda brochure the other day. The very 1st point is a blatant lie. Ask any European if the UK has a special status and they will laugh in your face and say "of course not". When was the EU reformed?

 

Even the people saying we should stay in admit the EU doesn't work as it is and needs changing. That's why they can't sing it's praises from the rooftops. They say we need to be in the EU to change it. We have been attempting to do that for over 40 years without success. Why should we expect success in the future. The vast majority of other countries in the EU are happy the way it is because they receive far more from it than they put in. If we leave France may have to start putting money in and the other contributers like Germany will have to fork out more. That's why they need us in.

If the argument for leaving is clearer and stronger further down the line, im sure a further referendum will be demanded and we could leave at that point.

[opinions4u]

If the argument for leaving is clearer and stronger further down the line, im sure a further referendum will be demanded and we could leave at that point.

Well the EU does have a history of its member nations repeating referenda until they get the result they want.

[De_La_Vega]

This referendum should be one of the easiest questions in history, but as ever the English public are contriving to bollocks it up.

 

Leaving the EU would be the single most stupid thing Britain has ever done, not because we couldn't survive it but because it would basically be an entire country ignoring all the evidence and voting for a jump into the dark because we are upset at something we cannot define.

 

Quite aside from that, I actually feel a kinship with Europeans which I am surprised more people don't share, and finally the EU project has fundamentally ended warfare in one of the most turbulent areas in the World. What's not to like?

[piglinbland]

This referendum should be one of the easiest questions in history, but as ever the English public are contriving to bollocks it up.

 

Leaving the EU would be the single most stupid thing Britain has ever done, not because we couldn't survive it but because it would basically be an entire country ignoring all the evidence and voting for a jump into the dark because we are upset at something we cannot define.

 

Quite aside from that, I actually feel a kinship with Europeans which I am surprised more people don't share, and finally the EU project has fundamentally ended warfare in one of the most turbulent areas in the World. What's not to like?

 

Straight sausages.

[leeslover]

This referendum should be one of the easiest questions in history, but as ever the English public are contriving to bollocks it up.

 

Leaving the EU would be the single most stupid thing Britain has ever done, not because we couldn't survive it but because it would basically be an entire country ignoring all the evidence and voting for a jump into the dark because we are upset at something we cannot define.

 

Quite aside from that, I actually feel a kinship with Europeans which I am surprised more people don't share, and finally the EU project has fundamentally ended warfare in one of the most turbulent areas in the World. What's not to like?

What if we're in the dark trying to jump out? As for what we can't define:

 

Tying ourselves closely to the only part of the world in permanent stagnation

 

Linking ourselves into the fallout when the Euro collapses into a maelstrom of :censored:

 

Giving control to a system that sees an ongoing poltical program as above democracy

 

Needless regulations set in favour of whichever business has the ear/pocket of who they need onside in the center

 

Massively increasing food bills to support inefficient French farming at the cost of poverty to 3rd world farmers

 

I feel a kinship with the young people in Southern Europe without a job because they are locked into the monetary union. Don't you?

[al_bro]

What if we're in the dark trying to jump out? As for what we can't define:

 

Tying ourselves closely to the only part of the world in permanent stagnation

 

Linking ourselves into the fallout when the Euro collapses into a maelstrom of :censored:

 

Giving control to a system that sees an ongoing poltical program as above democracy

 

Needless regulations set in favour of whichever business has the ear/pocket of who they need onside in the center

 

Massively increasing food bills to support inefficient French farming at the cost of poverty to 3rd world farmers

 

I feel a kinship with the young people in Southern Europe without a job because they are locked into the monetary union. Don't you?

Well said.

[mcfluff1985]

This referendum should be one of the easiest questions in history, but as ever the English public are contriving to bollocks it up.

 

Leaving the EU would be the single most stupid thing Britain has ever done

In your humble opinion?

[mcfluff1985]

I see staying in the EU like staying in a loveless marriage where you're not allowed to do anything without your controlling wife's say so. Better stay with her rather than risk looking for someone better?

[Matt]

What if

...

[jimsleftfoot]

I see staying in the EU like staying in a loveless marriage where you're not allowed to do anything without your controlling wife's say so. Better stay with her rather than risk looking for someone better?

On that basis the UK will get walked over by anyone. How about we assert ourselves and get involved. If the EU is so controlling, why doesn't the media report on it in the same way as it does with Parliament? We could vote in MEP's based on policy rather than protest. Maybe the 'wife' will have a new found respect for GB then.

[opinions4u]

I see staying in the EU like staying in a loveless marriage where you're not allowed to do anything without your controlling wife's say so. Better stay with her rather than risk looking for someone better?

Maybe that's why I'm erring towards an out vote.

[opinions4u]

On that basis the UK will get walked over by anyone. How about we assert ourselves and get involved. If the EU is so controlling, why doesn't the media report on it in the same way as it does with Parliament? We could vote in MEP's based on policy rather than protest. Maybe the 'wife' will have a new found respect for GB then.

Maybe the eu is narcissistic and will never change its controlling behaviour.

[leeslover]

Maybe the eu is narcissistic and will never change its controlling behaviour.

The EU isn't the partners, it's the interfering relatives

[piglinbland]

What if we're in the dark trying to jump out? As for what we can't define:

 

Tying ourselves closely to the only part of the world in permanent stagnation

 

Linking ourselves into the fallout when the Euro collapses into a maelstrom of :censored:

 

Giving control to a system that sees an ongoing poltical program as above democracy

 

Needless regulations set in favour of whichever business has the ear/pocket of who they need onside in the center

 

Massively increasing food bills to support inefficient French farming at the cost of poverty to 3rd world farmers

 

I feel a kinship with the young people in Southern Europe without a job because they are locked into the monetary union. Don't you?

 

Vacuous guff. Although kudos for being the first to mention French farmers.

[De_La_Vega]

Absolutely summed up the issue with the Euro debate right there.

 

Every economic point that previous posters (not me by the way, mine was opinion) have made has been answered with passion, innuendo, hearsay and a complete lack of anything like factual analysis.

 

"permanent stagnation" and "when the Euro collapses into a maelstrom of :censored:" being two points in case. European countries are not permanently stagnating, and the collapse of the Euro is a vague fear of something which may happen. At which point our Government could vote out anyway.

 

So basically; overwhelming economic opinion versus a gut-feeling and you're going with the gut. Bravo.

[mcfluff1985]

I see either vote, in or out, as a big what if. Neither side can say for sure what will happen either way

[rosa]

The longer the debate goes on, the more I hope both sides lose.

[frizzell54]

From Schroders....

 

 

Brexit: executive summary

In this report, we discuss the risk of Brexit and the potential impact on the UK economy both in the near term and further out should the UK vote to leave. We also consider the likely reaction by markets for sterling, equities and bonds.

The analysis and evidence presented is intended to inform investors and not to persuade voters or influence the outcome of the upcoming referendum.

Key findings include:

 

• The EU is the UK’s biggest trading partner, while the UK is also a very important export destination for the EU. Both sides need to maintain a strong trade relationship, but this is at risk should other elements of the negotiations be prioritised ahead of trade. Brexit could offer the UK the freedom to negotiate trade agreements with third parties, but it may have to lose access to parts of the single market, and would almost certainly be outside the customs union.
• Foreign direct investment is an important source of financing for the UK. The UK has a large exposure to Europe and vice versa. Should Brexit cause the UK to lose access to the single market, it could cause capital inflows to slow or even reverse. The existing stock of assets and liabilities is very large, and is likely to have a huge impact on markets in a disorderly scenario.
• EU membership is often blamed for the UK’s perceived migration problem, yet most immigrants tend to come from non-EU countries. From an economic standpoint, EU migrants arrive ready to work, pay taxes, and ease the burden of an ageing population. Limiting migration in a Brexit scenario would almost certainly lower the UK’s trend growth, and increase the burden on the exchequer.
• The UK’s contribution to the EU’s budget does not represent a significant saving should the UK decide to leave the EU. At just 0.2% of gross national income, the saving would barely put a dent in the UK’s fiscal black hole. Moreover, if the UK chooses to follow the path of Norway or Switzerland, some subscription costs may also be required.
• Should the UK vote for Brexit, the near-term impact on the economy is most likely to be stagflationary compared to our baseline forecast. Uncertainty would hit both foreign sourced and domestic investment, while we forecast UK consumers to cut spending as confidence is dented. Sterling is likely to depreciate further which would help boost the contribution from net trade, but the overall impact would be lower growth and higher inflation. We forecast that a benign Brexit scenario would cause GDP to be 0.9% lower and CPI inflation to be 0.6% higher by the end of 2017 compared to our baseline forecast. The Bank of England is forecast to keep interest rates lower for longer in this environment.
• There is a one in four chance that the loss in confidence leads to much larger capital outflows, causing the pound to plummet, and for the Bank of England to raise interest rates to defend the currency. The UK’s huge twin deficits highlight the economy’s imbalances and leave it highly vulnerable to a balance of payments crisis. The impact on the economy would be more severe than our Brexit scenario – stagflationary initially, but then very deflationary in years to come.
• The long-term impact on the UK economy will be determined by how much access to the single market the UK manages to retain, how migration flows are impacted by government policy, and how much the UK government manages to save in subscription costs. Most studies offer a range of scenarios concluding that the most likely outcome would be lower long-term potential growth compared to remaining in the EU.
• Restrictions on EU migration could cause the UK labour market to become less flexible to demand, raising the likelihood of more pronounced wage, inflation and interest rate cycles. A more cyclical economy would not only make recessions more frequent, but international investors could demand a discount on UK assets given the higher volatility of expected returns.
• A Brexit scenario is likely to cause sterling to fall further. Having already seen its sharpest depreciation since the financial crisis in recent months, our analysis shows that a further fall is likely under Brexit. However our analysis also suggests that sterling could rebound should the UK vote to remain, as many investors have already started to hedge their sterling exposure.
• The outlook for UK equities is mixed under Brexit. The UK’s large-cap index has a large proportion of its revenues coming from outside both the UK and EU. Should sterling depreciate, these companies would see the sterling value of profits rise, and would therefore benefit. The mid and small-cap indices have more exposure to the UK and EU, and could underperform as a result.
• The outlook for bonds is also mixed under Brexit. Credit could see wider spreads as investors demand a higher premium against the risk of lower growth and higher default risk. Meanwhile gilts are likely to see higher domestic demand from safe haven flows.

A vote for Brexit will also have wider implications for the rest of the European Union with the loss of a large liberal member state.

Moreover, the UK government will struggle to recover from such a result, while Scottish nationals will probably push for another vote for separation.

It could take decades before we learn the true costs and benefits from Brexit, but in the meantime, investors seem ready to take precautionary action.

Seems impressive, but nevertheless it's just opinion.

[piglinbland]

Absolutely summed up the issue with the Euro debate right there.

 

Every economic point that previous posters (not me by the way, mine was opinion) have made has been answered with passion, innuendo, hearsay and a complete lack of anything like factual analysis.

 

"permanent stagnation" and "when the Euro collapses into a maelstrom of :censored:" being two points in case. European countries are not permanently stagnating, and the collapse of the Euro is a vague fear of something which may happen. At which point our Government could vote out anyway.

 

So basically; overwhelming economic opinion versus a gut-feeling and you're going with the gut. Bravo.

 

I dare someone to start an 'Anthropic Climate Change' thread!

Edited April 15, 2016 by piglinbland

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

Seems impressive, but nevertheless it's just opinion.

 

A one in four chance of capital flight.

 

Stagflation.

 

More pronounced wage inflation, interest rate hike cycles. (This means Lawson / Lamont booms and busts, conveniently marshaled around the electoral cycle.)

 

Let's suppose Jeremy Corbyn proposed a policy with those associated risks...

[HarryBosch]

How can we use the democratic process to ensure that next time there's a vote like this they ensure we understand what it is we're actually voting for or against?

 

I'm still none the wiser and probably even more unsure (about either option) after all this.

 

Half of me still thinks if they can't give me compelling reasons to stay they must be hiding something & we must be better off out, the other half says that in the context of the human race as a whole we have an amazing standard of living because or despite of EU membership so better the devil you know.....