The EU referendum - 23rd June

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

This small exclusive poll is strangely correlative with the national polls, in that the margin for remainers could be comfortably overcome by the outers with the addition of the right number of undecideds.

[Hands on]

I wish I had followed this debate as catching up is a mammoth read.

 

I'm voting leave because last time by voting stay I got much more than I bargained for.

 

On the money we pay into the EU, don't forget that in addition much of our foreign aid budget is also spent by the EU on our behalf, I would argue that most is wasted. First they cream off what is needed to run the EU and then they give it back for agriculture and research with some going for regional aid plus the wonderfully socialist thing that we do get back less than we pay in. Those countries queuing up to join the EU see it as an opportunity to raise their living standards with the net effect that we will have to make larger and larger net contributions.

 

The wonderful EU market. Not I have to stress a free trade agreement but rather a strictly controlled single market with so many rules and regulations that apply across the board and not solely to the trade between member states. It is a single market that levels the EU playing field but makes us less competitive in our trade with every other country.

 

Stay in the EU to protect our workers is another cry. The leader of the EU Remain campaign, Mr Rose, made the admission that wages would be higher if we left the EU and he has not been seen since - obviously they can't have an honest man taking part in 'project fear'. The single market allows flows of labour and this has produced the immigration crisis. The downward pressure on wages - a simple matter of supply and demand. The pressure on services and housing. The extra money for the NHS is needed just to stand still. The houses built each year are less than we need to cope with the net influx so prices and rent are going to keep on going up. The Tory 'living wage' will add to the pressure - people don't come here to claim benefits they come here to work because it pays better. Curbing benefits is just a red herring.

 

Project Fear is based on projections made by interested parties. By people and institutions who want us to remain as part of the EU for one reason or another. I would suggest that fear of change is a major driver behind the remain campaign. Better the devil you know. In 2010 the Conservative/Liberal Government made projections for the state of our economy in 2015. They got it spectacularly wrong. We now have a projection for 2030 giving what happens if we remain as compared to what happens if we leave. The difference in this 15 year projection is less than the error in the 5 year projection from 2010 and this was made by people trying to make the case for remaining - yes I think they cooked the books. The truth is that nobody knows where we will be in 2030. I believe that a United Kingdom free of the Single Market will be a more prosperous and less divided nation (I don't see the Scots jumping ship).

 

If it was possible to ask everyone in the country their view I think there would be a majority who would plump for the devil they know. Fortunately this is a referendum and views have to be turned into votes. Project Fear is not about changing peoples minds it is the recognition by the remain campaign that they have the 'soft' vote. When the votes are cast I am confident that there will be a majority to leave.

Edited May 13, 2016 by Hands on

[frizzell54]

 

 

 

If it was possible to ask everyone in the country their view I think there would be a majority who would plump for the devil they know.

 

Good post, but I am not as optimistic about the outcome.

 

The problem is that it will not be the devil they know because our position will be weaker and it will be full steam ahead for a whole raft of legislation leading ultimately to the US of Europe.

 

This referendum has 'opened the gate of the pen,' but I am afraid the sheep will vote to remain. If by doing so people think that their loyalty will be rewarded; think again, more likely there will be punishment will for causing trouble. If you doubt this take a look at Greece.

[piglinbland]

Even though I'm voting in, I'm almost hoping it goes the other way - as I did when the Scots voted on devolution - just out of curiosity and to see if Britain's sphere of influence really will decline as rapidly as some suggest. It would be a fascinating experiment and one from which could well issue quite spectacular changes in our way of life.

 

Cameron has such ineptitude as to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the remaining 6 weeks so I'm predicting a tight result.

 

The best outcome would, I suppose, be a 'remain' vote plus a far more vigourous British participation leading up the UK presidency in 2017. Britain needs Europe but Europe also needs a good dose of Anglo-saxon economic pragmatism, and if ever there were to be a time for the British voice to be heard it would be on the 24th of June following a closely contested 'in' vote.

[frizzell54]

 

a) Even though I'm voting in, I'm almost hoping it goes the other way - as I did when the Scots voted on devolution - just out of curiosity and to see if Britain's sphere of influence really will decline as rapidly as some suggest. It would be a fascinating experiment and one from which could well issue quite spectacular changes in our way of life.

 

Cameron has such ineptitude as to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the remaining 6 weeks so I'm predicting a tight result.

 

The best outcome would, I suppose, be a 'remain' vote plus a far more vigourous British participation leading up the UK presidency in 2017. Britain needs Europe but Europe also needs a good dose of Anglo-saxon economic pragmatism, and if ever there were to be a time for the British voice to be heard it would be on the 24th of June following a closely contested 'in' vote.

 

a) Vote out then.

Not managed to influence the EU thus far after 40+ years. So in your dreams.

[leeslover]

Even though I'm voting in, I'm almost hoping it goes the other way - as I did when the Scots voted on devolution - just out of curiosity and to see if Britain's sphere of influence really will decline as rapidly as some suggest. It would be a fascinating experiment and one from which could well issue quite spectacular changes in our way of life.

 

Cameron has such ineptitude as to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the remaining 6 weeks so I'm predicting a tight result.

 

The best outcome would, I suppose, be a 'remain' vote plus a far more vigourous British participation leading up the UK presidency in 2017. Britain needs Europe but Europe also needs a good dose of Anglo-saxon economic pragmatism, and if ever there were to be a time for the British voice to be heard it would be on the 24th of June following a closely contested 'in' vote.

I'm intrigued by this idea that the UK is going to be able to do much to alter the direction the EU is going in. The Eurozone countries are moving towards fiscal and political union, and making no secret of it. It is indeed the only thing to do if they want to persist with the single currency for good or ill.

 

The UK isn't in that club and won't be able to influence it. The reality of staying in is really similar to how the Remain team describe Norway - paying in, no say in the rules but bound by them.

[piglinbland]

I'm intrigued by this idea that the UK is going to be able to do much to alter the direction the EU is going in. The Eurozone countries are moving towards fiscal and political union, and making no secret of it. It is indeed the only thing to do if they want to persist with the single currency for good or ill.

 

The UK isn't in that club and won't be able to influence it. The reality of staying in is really similar to how the Remain team describe Norway - paying in, no say in the rules but bound by them.

 

As intriguing as the idea that Britain would be able to negotiate favourable trade agreements in the event of an exit, having become, effectively, an economic competitor to Europe?

 

The Eurozone is indeed moving towards fiscal and political union, that has always been it's aim. Unlikely, as you say, that Britain can alter that direction. But, why is fiscal and political union a bad thing? We do enjoy an absurdly high standard of living across the EU (compared with huge areas of the globe) and one which has remained surprisingly stable given the (too precipitous in my opinion) entry of the old Eastern bloc countries and the chaos in Greece.

 

There's no reason (that I can see) why Britain, with the will to do so, couldn't be a major player along with France and Germany in future decision making - as long as we can shake off the "British Exceptionalism" which so irritates the rest of Europe.

[frizzell54]

 

 

As intriguing as the idea that Britain would be able to negotiate favourable trade agreements in the event of an exit, having become, effectively, an economic competitor to Europe?

 

The Eurozone is indeed moving towards fiscal and political union, that has always been it's aim. Unlikely, as you say, that Britain can alter that direction. But, why is fiscal and political union a bad thing? We do enjoy an absurdly high standard of living across the EU (compared with huge areas of the globe) and one which has remained surprisingly stable given the (too precipitous in my opinion) entry of the old Eastern bloc countries and the chaos in Greece.

 

There's no reason (that I can see) why Britain, with the will to do so, couldn't be a major player along with France and Germany in future decision making - as long as we can shake off the "British Exceptionalism" which so irritates the rest of Europe.

 

You really don't get it do you?

 

The chaos in Greece is the fault of the EU and the insane Euro project. Italy is the next big one to watch as it is in deep recession.

 

The Eastern block countries want the free ride and will join the Euro at their peril. The decision to expand to Urals (Cameron) infuriates Putin and rightly so.

 

Also given that Cameron's negotiations have weakened our position in Europe by giving up our veto, I cannot see us being a big decision maker.

 

The French simply do not want to do anything the Anglo-Saxon way and will never compromise.

 

 

 

[piglinbland]

To imply that I "really don't get it" suggests exasperation on your part because I don't share your position.

 

In actual fact, I concur at least partially with the 4 points you make - each of which bears an element of truth. Yet I still believe we would be better off within this less-than-perfect union.

 

On the other hand, I've yet to hear a coherent breakdown of the steps we will follow in the case of exit.

 

How and with whom would we negotiate new trade deals with the EU? how long would this take (and at what expense)? How would we circumnavigate the inevitable customs levies of 20% or more whilst keeping autonomy of our borders?

 

How will we maintain our national security (and at what expense)? How, if we are counting on London being a financial centre, would we counter the inevitable opposition from Brussels? What would happen to European investment in the UK

 

(for example Veolia)? What would happen should Scotland seek devolution? Would Britain remain in adherence of the Human Rights Charter? Minimum wage? The list is long and I've heard plenty of assurances that it'll be alright because

 

everyone wants to do business with Britain, but I've yet to hear formal, convincing, step-by-step proposals.

[mcfluff1985]

To imply that I "really don't get it" suggests exasperation on your part because I don't share your position.

 

In actual fact, I concur at least partially with the 4 points you make - each of which bears an element of truth. Yet I still believe we would be better off within this less-than-perfect union.

 

On the other hand, I've yet to hear a coherent breakdown of the steps we will follow in the case of exit.

 

How and with whom would we negotiate new trade deals with the EU? how long would this take (and at what expense)? How would we circumnavigate the inevitable customs levies of 20% or more whilst keeping autonomy of our borders?

 

How will we maintain our national security (and at what expense)? How, if we are counting on London being a financial centre, would we counter the inevitable opposition from Brussels? What would happen to European investment in the UK

 

(for example Veolia)? What would happen should Scotland seek devolution? Would Britain remain in adherence of the Human Rights Charter? Minimum wage? The list is long and I've heard plenty of assurances that it'll be alright because

 

everyone wants to do business with Britain, but I've yet to hear formal, convincing, step-by-step proposals.

So let's have decisions made by a government we didn't elect.

 

That's what staying in the EU is. We can't change things like we could if we were out.

 

It's as simple as that for me. Why do I want to live somewhere that I really have zero say on what happens. Doesn't matter who we elect to government in this country because Brussels has the final say.

 

The EU is not a democracy. Not a real one

[losesome]

Funny the other day when the B of E governor said that leaving the EU would put the UK into recession.

This was said 4 hours after it announced that UK business was in recession for the 3rd time in 8 years!!!!!

Let's get OUT while we can.

Edited May 14, 2016 by losesome

[leeslover]

To imply that I "really don't get it" suggests exasperation on your part because I don't share your position.

 

In actual fact, I concur at least partially with the 4 points you make - each of which bears an element of truth. Yet I still believe we would be better off within this less-than-perfect union.

 

On the other hand, I've yet to hear a coherent breakdown of the steps we will follow in the case of exit.

 

How and with whom would we negotiate new trade deals with the EU? how long would this take (and at what expense)? How would we circumnavigate the inevitable customs levies of 20% or more whilst keeping autonomy of our borders?

 

How will we maintain our national security (and at what expense)? How, if we are counting on London being a financial centre, would we counter the inevitable opposition from Brussels? What would happen to European investment in the UK

 

(for example Veolia)? What would happen should Scotland seek devolution? Would Britain remain in adherence of the Human Rights Charter? Minimum wage? The list is long and I've heard plenty of assurances that it'll be alright because

 

everyone wants to do business with Britain, but I've yet to hear formal, convincing, step-by-step proposals.

It doesn't help the debate if you make numbers up. Where is this 20% tariff :censored:e coming from? How do you think China and America and Morocco trade with the EU now?

[frizzell54]

See link below for a very eloquent discourse on the EU.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/paul-emery/why-on-earth-would-socialists-support-neoliberal-undemocratic-eu

[frizzell54]

Watch and learn.

[piglinbland]

It doesn't help the debate if you make numbers up. Where is this 20% tariff :censored:e coming from? How do you think China and America and Morocco trade with the EU now?

 

VAT

[piglinbland]

 

See link below for a very eloquent discourse on the EU.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/paul-emery/why-on-earth-would-socialists-support-neoliberal-undemocratic-eu

 

 

Fair do's.

 

Here's one (3rd title down, Princeton, will open the document direct).

 

Not so eloquent, maybe a traipse, even. But based on empirical thought...

 

https://www.google.fr/search?client=firefox-b-ab&q=FORUM+Intereconomics,+November/December+2008316+Does+the+EU+Suffer+from+a+Democratic+Deficit?&spell=1&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjo-sv3hd3MAhUJthoKHevDBTsQBQgfKAA&biw=1920&bih=947

Edited May 15, 2016 by piglinbland

[piglinbland]

 

Watch and learn.

 

 

That's as crap as Cameron's "in" propaganda.

Edited May 15, 2016 by piglinbland

[frizzell54]

 

 

That's as crap as Cameron's "in" propaganda.

No, it isn't.

 

Good to know you recognise Cameron's propaganda is crap.

Edited May 16, 2016 by frizzell54

[leeslover]

 

VAT

You're saying that if we leave the EU we'll have VAT?

[HarryBosch]

 

How and with whom would we negotiate new trade deals with the EU? how long would this take (and at what expense)? How would we circumnavigate the inevitable customs levies of 20% or more whilst keeping autonomy of our borders?

 

 

"Hello, is that Germany?"

"Yes"

"Britain here. Do you still want to sell us millions of pounds worth of cars every year?"

"Yes, of course"

"We need to sort a new trade agreement out then don't we. Are you & your EU trade bods free next Wednesday?"

"Yes. See you then"

"OK. You're buying by the way..."

Edited May 16, 2016 by HarryBosch

[piglinbland]

Goods entering the EU are subject to VAT, duty and storage charges of a varying order of magnitude depending on the nature of the goods and the country of entry.

 

If Britain leaves the EU, this applies to goods which otherwise had free passage to the continent from the UK.

 

 

First customs official - "Pierre," (for they are French) "can we have the paperwork for those British machine tools that are urgently needed in Portugal?"

 

Second customs official - "I'm on my lunch".

[opinions4u]

Goods entering the EU are subject to VAT, duty and storage charges of a varying order of magnitude depending on the nature of the goods and the country of entry.

 

If Britain leaves the EU, this applies to goods which otherwise had free passage to the continent from the UK.

 

 

First customs official - "Pierre," (for they are French) "can we have the paperwork for those British machine tools that are urgently needed in Portugal?"

 

Second customs official - "I'm on my lunch".

Well if that's how they behave we are better off out.

 

Flog our stuff to others.

[leeslover]

Goods entering the EU are subject to VAT, duty and storage charges of a varying order of magnitude depending on the nature of the goods and the country of entry.

 

If Britain leaves the EU, this applies to goods which otherwise had free passage to the continent from the UK.

 

 

First customs official - "Pierre," (for they are French) "can we have the paperwork for those British machine tools that are urgently needed in Portugal?"

 

Second customs official - "I'm on my lunch".

And you want Pierre's boss making the trade rules? It's a false argument anyway. Only 6% of British companies export to the EU. They still would. The other 94% would save serious money from the reduction in regulations. It's a world of win.

[al_bro]

Even though I'm voting in, I'm almost hoping it goes the other way - as I did when the Scots voted on devolution - just out of curiosity and to see if Britain's sphere of influence really will decline as rapidly as some suggest. It would be a fascinating experiment and one from which could well issue quite spectacular changes in our way of life.

 

Cameron has such ineptitude as to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the remaining 6 weeks so I'm predicting a tight result.

 

The best outcome would, I suppose, be a 'remain' vote plus a far more vigourous British participation leading up the UK presidency in 2017. Britain needs Europe but Europe also needs a good dose of Anglo-saxon economic pragmatism, and if ever there were to be a time for the British voice to be heard it would be on the 24th of June following a closely contested 'in' vote.

The British voice wasn't heard when Cameron tried to negotiate, spending a fortune jetting around Europe. We got nothing, despite Cameron's ridiculous claim that he has single-handedly reformed the EU, so why will they listen to us when we vote to continue to be subservient.

 

We have only one use to the EU, our money. Think of the future when up to five more poor countries join taking out far more than they put in. Who will pay? We will of course, because we will be told that we have to.

[piglinbland]

"We'll flog our stuff to others"

 

That was the statistical assurance I'd been seeking all along! Now i can sleep sound in the knowledge that we'll be surging ahead in no time.

 

leeslover - if only 6% (???????????) of British companies export to a market place of 500 million people right on our own doorstep, then we deserve to be in recession for eternity - whether we remain in the EU or not.

 

I suggest you all take your x25 magnifying specs off when you look at Britain on a map of the world.