The EU referendum - 23rd June

[piglinbland]

I'm not trying to be patronising, OldHallam. Or even trying to defend the EU. I'm just acknowledging it for what it is. And trying to visualise what it would be like without, or from without, the EU.

 

It'll be a close run thing and I think it'll be an "in" vote. But even if it's an "out", it'll be an "out but in" sort of "out" - which is where we've always been, to be honest.

 

I'm almost hoping for an "out" myself, in a morbid way - there really is no other way of knowing what would happen...

[disjointed]

I'm not trying to be patronising, OldHallam. Or even trying to defend the EU. I'm just acknowledging it for what it is. And trying to visualise what it would be like without, or from without, the EU.

 

It'll be a close run thing and I think it'll be an "in" vote. But even if it's an "out", it'll be an "out but in" sort of "out" - which is where we've always been, to be honest.

 

I'm almost hoping for an "out" myself, in a morbid way - there really is no other way of knowing what would happen...

I feel the same way, I voted for "in" and I don't think anything is going to make me change my mind. But if the "out" wins I wouldn't be unduly worried about what that means in the future.

[China]

I feel the same way, I voted for "in" and I don't think anything is going to make me change my mind. But if the "out" wins I wouldn't be unduly worried about what that means in the future.

 

I'll be gutted if we vote out even though I expect it and I really think it would plunge the country into crisis, we are borrowing at record rates but our stability ensures we can borrow at good rates, leaving the EU would create far too much uncertainty and we'd be seen as a risk by lenders, this would in my opinion lead to a downward spiral. The EU is for all its faults a powerful set up with huge influence, I'd like to see us right at the heart of it setting the agenda.

[Monty Burns]

Where have I ali

 

 

Where have I aligned myself to Cameron? He's a self-serving :censored: if ever their was one.

Get a screen that's legible before calling me an idiot.

Jesus.

Ok, hope this gets through, you said if we want out then we are all like farage.

So, using your logic, as you are saying all the same things as cameron you are alligned with cameron.

Duhhhhhh.

[HarryBosch]

I did some Inheritance Tax & Estate Planning training yesterday ( ).

Up until 2013 if you were married to a foreigner who wasn't classed as UK domiciled you could only transfer £55k to him/her free of Inheritance Tax whereas a married couple where both were UK Domiciled can transfer an unlimited amount to each other free of IHT.

 

The European Commission deemed this discriminatory and told us to change it as a result of which we increased it to £650k (it's still unlimited for married couples who are both UK Domiciled).

Edited April 13, 2016 by HarryBosch

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

Jesus.

Ok, hope this gets through, you said if we want out then we are all like farage.

So, using your logic, as you are saying all the same things as cameron you are alligned with cameron.

Duhhhhhh.

 

It's a fair point. To a certain extent, if Cameron wins, he'll say it's because people trust him. Likewise Farage if he wins. Who you're lining up with is a legit consideration.

[piglinbland]

Corbyn, Cameron, Farage and Johnson are motivated only by self-advancement and the pursuit of power (OK, Corbyn to a lesser extent).

 

The EU, on the other hand, for all it's failings, champions it's citizens. Anyone of us within the union can propose an amendment, changing or creation of a law (participative democracy) providing a (large enough) petition can be raised in at least 7 member states. Think about it.

[opinions4u]

 

The EU, on the other hand, for all it's failings, champions it's citizens. Anyone of us within the union can propose an amendment, changing or creation of a law (participative democracy) providing a (large enough) petition can be raised in at least 7 member states. Think about it.

Yay.

[Monty Burns]

 

The EU, on the other hand, for all it's failings, champions it's citizens. Anyone of us within the union can propose an amendment...

Apart from all the slaves. An industry which is booming under the EU.

[jimsleftfoot]

Apart from all the slaves. An industry which is booming under the EU.

I think you should explain that one.

[jimsleftfoot]

So the net EU contribution is £8.5 bn which obviously is a big number. However in terms of gross domestic product, it's about 0.45% approx, less than we give in foreign aid (0.7%).

 

As it stands, no one can tell if we will be worse off or better off, but a 0.1% loss or gain in growth is worth £2bn. If this continued over 10 years, that would increase/decrease to £20bn a year (1%) either way. Much more relatively to the current net contribution.

 

Think Tank Open Europe has stated a best case scenario of 1.6% gain by 2030 but more realistically between a 0.8% loss and 0.6% gain.

 

The Centre for Economic performance at the London School of Economics predicts a worse case scenario of between 6.3% and 9.5% reduction and best case a 2.2% loss.

 

The IMF yesterday stated that a Brexit could cause 'severe damage'. The leave response was that IMF has been wrong before (is that a good response to counter doubt with more doubt?)

 

Leaving the EU is a bet and a risk. The vote leave campaign can only offer 'might' and 'could be' which isn't a good reason for changing the status quo in my book. They need to offer a more sound platform and they can't.

[piglinbland]

Anti Tax Avoidance Package...

 

https://www.google.fr/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiPv7igz43MAhWIQBoKHaSWDxcQFggiMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fec.europa.eu%2Ftaxation_customs%2Ftaxation%2Fcompany_tax%2Fanti_tax_avoidance%2Findex_en.htm&usg=AFQjCNF_T3DPglQmxkHZcQ_Ue52Us3r6wA

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

Leaving the EU is a bet and a risk. The vote leave campaign can only offer 'might' and 'could be' which isn't a good reason for changing the status quo in my book. They need to offer a more sound platform and they can't.

This is where I am. There was a time when you could see a brighter future outside the EU but that time isn't now.

 

This referendum becomes less satisfactory by the day. I think I prefer a general election every five years where each party states their position on Europe (and foreign policy more generally) is better. If you want out, you should say so. If you want in, you should say so. If you want in but with certain conditions attached, you could say that too. I used to think a referendum - and only a referendum - could settle the question but it obviously won't.

[NewBlue]

This is where I am. There was a time when you could see a brighter future outside the EU but that time isn't now.

 

This referendum becomes less satisfactory by the day. I think I prefer a general election every five years where each party states their position on Europe (and foreign policy more generally) is better. If you want out, you should say so. If you want in, you should say so. If you want in but with certain conditions attached, you could say that too. I used to think a referendum - and only a referendum - could settle the question but it obviously won't.

So you'd have to vote Ukip in the GE to show your opposition to the EU?

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

So you'd have to vote Ukip in the GE to show your opposition to the EU?

 

I suppose you would. But you'd be voting for the whole UKIP package - including the racism, the abolition of employment rights, the denigration and privatisation of public services and so on.

[Hank Kingsley]

 

I suppose you would. But you'd be voting for the whole UKIP package - including the racism, the abolition of employment rights, the denigration and privatisation of public services and so on.

 

So UKIP's nicked the tories manifesto now?

[jimsleftfoot]

 

So UKIP's nicked the tories manifesto now?

 

Well UKIP does have core right wing Tory ideals at its heart.

[leeslover]

So the net EU contribution is £8.5 bn which obviously is a big number. However in terms of gross domestic product, it's about 0.45% approx, less than we give in foreign aid (0.7%).

 

As it stands, no one can tell if we will be worse off or better off, but a 0.1% loss or gain in growth is worth £2bn. If this continued over 10 years, that would increase/decrease to £20bn a year (1%) either way. Much more relatively to the current net contribution.

 

Think Tank Open Europe has stated a best case scenario of 1.6% gain by 2030 but more realistically between a 0.8% loss and 0.6% gain.

 

The Centre for Economic performance at the London School of Economics predicts a worse case scenario of between 6.3% and 9.5% reduction and best case a 2.2% loss.

 

The IMF yesterday stated that a Brexit could cause 'severe damage'. The leave response was that IMF has been wrong before (is that a good response to counter doubt with more doubt?)

 

Leaving the EU is a bet and a risk. The vote leave campaign can only offer 'might' and 'could be' which isn't a good reason for changing the status quo in my book. They need to offer a more sound platform and they can't.

There's more to the costs though, a lot of the money we supposedly get but is effectively wasted, for example all the EU funding given to organisations who then publish reports saying we should stay in.

[HarryBosch]

For anyone still undecided - Corbyn has come out in support of staying in.....

[jimsleftfoot]

There's more to the costs though, a lot of the money we supposedly get but is effectively wasted, for example all the EU funding given to organisations who then publish reports saying we should stay in.

 

Person is employed to write report, uses remuneration to buy goods and services, other people are employed as a result and so on...

[leeslover]

 

Person is employed to write report, uses remuneration to buy goods and services, other people are employed as a result and so on...

As Dr Goebbels said to the actress...

[Hank Kingsley]

For anyone still undecided - Corbyn has come out in support of staying in.....

 

That clinches it for me then, much as it pains me to side with Honest Dave i'll be voting to stay in.

 

No brainer really when Johnson and Gove are in the Out camp.

[HarryBosch]

From Schroders....

 

Brexit: executive summary

In this report, we discuss the risk of Brexit and the potential impact on the UK economy both in the near term and further out should the UK vote to leave. We also consider the likely reaction by markets for sterling, equities and bonds.

The analysis and evidence presented is intended to inform investors and not to persuade voters or influence the outcome of the upcoming referendum.

Key findings include:

• The EU is the UK’s biggest trading partner, while the UK is also a very important export destination for the EU. Both sides need to maintain a strong trade relationship, but this is at risk should other elements of the negotiations be prioritised ahead of trade. Brexit could offer the UK the freedom to negotiate trade agreements with third parties, but it may have to lose access to parts of the single market, and would almost certainly be outside the customs union.
• Foreign direct investment is an important source of financing for the UK. The UK has a large exposure to Europe and vice versa. Should Brexit cause the UK to lose access to the single market, it could cause capital inflows to slow or even reverse. The existing stock of assets and liabilities is very large, and is likely to have a huge impact on markets in a disorderly scenario.
• EU membership is often blamed for the UK’s perceived migration problem, yet most immigrants tend to come from non-EU countries. From an economic standpoint, EU migrants arrive ready to work, pay taxes, and ease the burden of an ageing population. Limiting migration in a Brexit scenario would almost certainly lower the UK’s trend growth, and increase the burden on the exchequer.
• The UK’s contribution to the EU’s budget does not represent a significant saving should the UK decide to leave the EU. At just 0.2% of gross national income, the saving would barely put a dent in the UK’s fiscal black hole. Moreover, if the UK chooses to follow the path of Norway or Switzerland, some subscription costs may also be required.
• Should the UK vote for Brexit, the near-term impact on the economy is most likely to be stagflationary compared to our baseline forecast. Uncertainty would hit both foreign sourced and domestic investment, while we forecast UK consumers to cut spending as confidence is dented. Sterling is likely to depreciate further which would help boost the contribution from net trade, but the overall impact would be lower growth and higher inflation. We forecast that a benign Brexit scenario would cause GDP to be 0.9% lower and CPI inflation to be 0.6% higher by the end of 2017 compared to our baseline forecast. The Bank of England is forecast to keep interest rates lower for longer in this environment.
• There is a one in four chance that the loss in confidence leads to much larger capital outflows, causing the pound to plummet, and for the Bank of England to raise interest rates to defend the currency. The UK’s huge twin deficits highlight the economy’s imbalances and leave it highly vulnerable to a balance of payments crisis. The impact on the economy would be more severe than our Brexit scenario – stagflationary initially, but then very deflationary in years to come.
• The long-term impact on the UK economy will be determined by how much access to the single market the UK manages to retain, how migration flows are impacted by government policy, and how much the UK government manages to save in subscription costs. Most studies offer a range of scenarios concluding that the most likely outcome would be lower long-term potential growth compared to remaining in the EU.
• Restrictions on EU migration could cause the UK labour market to become less flexible to demand, raising the likelihood of more pronounced wage, inflation and interest rate cycles. A more cyclical economy would not only make recessions more frequent, but international investors could demand a discount on UK assets given the higher volatility of expected returns.
• A Brexit scenario is likely to cause sterling to fall further. Having already seen its sharpest depreciation since the financial crisis in recent months, our analysis shows that a further fall is likely under Brexit. However our analysis also suggests that sterling could rebound should the UK vote to remain, as many investors have already started to hedge their sterling exposure.
• The outlook for UK equities is mixed under Brexit. The UK’s large-cap index has a large proportion of its revenues coming from outside both the UK and EU. Should sterling depreciate, these companies would see the sterling value of profits rise, and would therefore benefit. The mid and small-cap indices have more exposure to the UK and EU, and could underperform as a result.
• The outlook for bonds is also mixed under Brexit. Credit could see wider spreads as investors demand a higher premium against the risk of lower growth and higher default risk. Meanwhile gilts are likely to see higher domestic demand from safe haven flows.

A vote for Brexit will also have wider implications for the rest of the European Union with the loss of a large liberal member state.

Moreover, the UK government will struggle to recover from such a result, while Scottish nationals will probably push for another vote for separation.

It could take decades before we learn the true costs and benefits from Brexit, but in the meantime, investors seem ready to take precautionary action.

[al_bro]

So the net EU contribution is £8.5 bn which obviously is a big number. However in terms of gross domestic product, it's about 0.45% approx, less than we give in foreign aid (0.7%).

 

As it stands, no one can tell if we will be worse off or better off, but a 0.1% loss or gain in growth is worth £2bn. If this continued over 10 years, that would increase/decrease to £20bn a year (1%) either way. Much more relatively to the current net contribution.

 

Think Tank Open Europe has stated a best case scenario of 1.6% gain by 2030 but more realistically between a 0.8% loss and 0.6% gain.

 

The Centre for Economic performance at the London School of Economics predicts a worse case scenario of between 6.3% and 9.5% reduction and best case a 2.2% loss.

 

The IMF yesterday stated that a Brexit could cause 'severe damage'. The leave response was that IMF has been wrong before (is that a good response to counter doubt with more doubt?)

 

Leaving the EU is a bet and a risk. The vote leave campaign can only offer 'might' and 'could be' which isn't a good reason for changing the status quo in my book. They need to offer a more sound platform and they can't.

Staying in the EU is also a risk. They will take it as a green light to continue with their plan of a US of Europe. Mark my words their are far more risks staying in than leaving. If we eave our future is in or own hands (like Latics at the moment). If we stay in we will be subservient to our EU rulers for years to come.

 

5 countries are wanting to join Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. All these countries will be taking money out of the EU, not paying in. Our rebate will again be targeted to fund this expansion or our contribution will rise significantly. Not to mention more people wanting to work here.

 

I received the propaganda brochure the other day. The very 1st point is a blatant lie. Ask any European if the UK has a special status and they will laugh in your face and say "of course not". When was the EU reformed?

 

Even the people saying we should stay in admit the EU doesn't work as it is and needs changing. That's why they can't sing it's praises from the rooftops. They say we need to be in the EU to change it. We have been attempting to do that for over 40 years without success. Why should we expect success in the future. The vast majority of other countries in the EU are happy the way it is because they receive far more from it than they put in. If we leave France may have to start putting money in and the other contributers like Germany will have to fork out more. That's why they need us in.

[piglinbland]

Roughly 1,5 million ex-pats can now benefit from simplified cross-border successions -

 

https://www.google.fr/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjllNeUxo7MAhUGnBoKHRpJCEYQFggiMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fec.europa.eu%2Fjustice%2Fcivil%2Ffamily-matters%2Fsuccessions%2Findex_en.htm&usg=AFQjCNEF1F77HSDusCDo38sVAXzNiXj7Cw

 

Basically means that British inheritance laws apply if deceased is British.