Priorities?

[PeteG]

On 4/4/2021 at 9:39 AM, underdog said:

 

We are a dysfunctional setup and this will probably put most investors off. However, there are options that need to be exhausted for fan investment/ownership.

 

Club - increase shareholding. A big no-no on the FSA list really

 

Asset - BP our home. Trust are the holder of the ACV, this gives a right to bid if the asset became available. Or even, to trigger it ourselves. There is a pre-trigger ACV checklist that the Trust needs help with. It includes sourcing a RICS Surveyor for a valuation and condition report, sourcing a commercial and corporate solicitor, preparing a business plan of at least three years, looking at what grants are available too. DCMS in the budget have been allocated funds for fan ownership and applications start in June....lots of research that needs to be completed and will be costly if we cannot source or use any skillsets within the fanbase.

 

You have to ask yourself what is currently, for sale, or open to offers to sell. IMO, it is the stadium. So is it a viable option for fans to become the landlords of OAFC? Is it better fans are the landlords than the current company Brassbank?

 

The Trust strategy is now completed and we will be discussing it with PTB soon with a rollout shortly after. 

 

We have to try or be as best ready as we can be if either club, stadium or both becomes available. 

 

It is literally, in our hands

 

 

 

 

 

I would like to think it's in our own hands but really it isn't. We have no chance of raising the sort of money required to own the ground and the club as fans and then also to run the club. The players wage bill is approximately £1 million per year and that's for a squad that isn't good enough. Then there are the other staffs wages, upkeep of the ground, pitch and loads of other costs that most of us won't have even thought of. Football clubs lose money so it has to be funded and i can't see enough fans willing to pump in the deficit. We need someone to buy the lot and as we need 2 parties to agree to that i don't see it happening. Administration is our best case to get the club but that means -12 next season and the likelyhood of going out of the football league. We would need someone to buy the ground off Brassbank and given you could get Wigan with a relatively brand new stadium, training ground etc for £3 million we aren't an attractive proposition. Nobody in their right mind would ever just buy the football club again. 

[kowenicki]

1 hour ago, PeteG said:

I would like to think it's in our own hands but really it isn't. We have no chance of raising the sort of money required to own the ground and the club as fans and then also to run the club. The players wage bill is approximately £1 million per year and that's for a squad that isn't good enough. Then there are the other staffs wages, upkeep of the ground, pitch and loads of other costs that most of us won't have even thought of. Football clubs lose money so it has to be funded and i can't see enough fans willing to pump in the deficit. We need someone to buy the lot and as we need 2 parties to agree to that i don't see it happening. Administration is our best case to get the club but that means -12 next season and the likelyhood of going out of the football league. We would need someone to buy the ground off Brassbank and given you could get Wigan with a relatively brand new stadium, training ground etc for £3 million we aren't an attractive proposition. Nobody in their right mind would ever just buy the football club again. 

 

Absolutely. This fantasy that a fan based group can fund the purchase and running of the club is ludicrous. Not to mention that the fans shouldn't be buying something so vastly overpriced in the first place. 

 

Blitz is the blockage stopping any progress being made by either the current owner, a new owner or the fans coming together.  Why some people still wont accept this, and didn't realise it years ago, is bewildering.  AL is Blitz's legacy. 

[Dave_Og]

38 minutes ago, kowenicki said:

 

Absolutely. This fantasy that a fan based group can fund the purchase and running of the club is ludicrous. Not to mention that the fans shouldn't be buying something so vastly overpriced in the first place. 

 

Blitz is the blockage stopping any progress being made by either the current owner, a new owner or the fans coming together.  Why some people still wont accept this, and didn't realise it years ago, is bewildering.  AL is Blitz's legacy. 

At the end of the day an asset in a sale is worth whatever someone will pay for it; no more,  no less.  

 

AL only has himself to blame for coughing up £3m (if that's what he did) for a business with next to no real assets.  Of course loads of businesses are sold for way in excess of what their actual physical assets are valued at, the difference being known as 'goodwill'.  He has pissed away just about every element of goodwill that existed at the time he purchased except the EFL membership and he's had a bloody good go at destroying that as well.

[PeteG]

15 minutes ago, Dave_Og said:

At the end of the day an asset in a sale is worth whatever someone will pay for it; no more,  no less.  

 

AL only has himself to blame for coughing up £3m (if that's what he did) for a business with next to no real assets.  Of course loads of businesses are sold for way in excess of what their actual physical assets are valued at, the difference being known as 'goodwill'.  He has pissed away just about every element of goodwill that existed at the time he purchased except the EFL membership and he's had a bloody good go at destroying that as well.

This isn't really the point though. We can all state what a mess Abdallah has made of it but the point now is how we move forward. I could be wrong but i don't see fans raising the type of money we are talking about being required. Whoever wants to take over the club has to negotiate with 2 parties which is far from ideal

[Dave_Og]

1 minute ago, PeteG said:

This isn't really the point though. We can all state what a mess Abdallah has made of it but the point now is how we move forward. I could be wrong but i don't see fans raising the type of money we are talking about being required. Whoever wants to take over the club has to negotiate with 2 parties which is far from ideal

The pertinent point is re the valuation of the current assets of Brassbank.  Sooner or later I can't believe that Blitz won't drop his price and the price that any sane person will pay will only get lower if the fortunes of the club continue to nosedive.  We are very far from being alone in the club and ground having separate ownership but, no, not ideal.

[PeteG]

1 minute ago, Dave_Og said:

The pertinent point is re the valuation of the current assets of Brassbank.  Sooner or later I can't believe that Blitz won't drop his price and the price that any sane person will pay will only get lower if the fortunes of the club continue to nosedive.  We are very far from being alone in the club and ground having separate ownership but, no, not ideal.

We are not alone that's right, but most other clubs who have a lease in place with their landlords get the right to run the ground 7 days a week. If that was the case it wouldn't be a massive issue and the club could benefit and generate income from the ground.

[Dave_Og]

1 minute ago, PeteG said:

We are not alone that's right, but most other clubs who have a lease in place with their landlords get the right to run the ground 7 days a week. If that was the case it wouldn't be a massive issue and the club could benefit and generate income from the ground.

Yep, agreed.

[Matt]

52 minutes ago, kowenicki said:

 

Absolutely. This fantasy that a fan based group can fund the purchase and running of the club is ludicrous. Not to mention that the fans shouldn't be buying something so vastly overpriced in the first place. 

 

Perhaps not at L2 or above. I guess it could be purchased as a Community Benefit Society through grants and community share schemes, then the running of the club would then be managed by the fans - it would up to them to set the playing budget for the coaching team. You'd be amazed how the fans would really appreciate every pound being saved or spent by the club.

[PeteG]

1 minute ago, Matt said:

 

Perhaps not at L2 or above. I guess it could be purchased as a Community Benefit Society through grants and community share schemes, then the running of the club would then be managed by the fans - it would up to them to set the playing budget for the coaching team. You'd be amazed how the fans would really appreciate every pound being saved or spent by the club.

I agree but we are talking about running costs of approx. £1.5 million per year. 2500 fans donating £600 per year every year on top of buying season tickets, merchandise etc. for me makes it a non-starter

[Dave_Og]

1 hour ago, kowenicki said:

 

Absolutely. This fantasy that a fan based group can fund the purchase and running of the club is ludicrous. Not to mention that the fans shouldn't be buying something so vastly overpriced in the first place. 

 

 

 

The irony is that fans are demonstrably prepared to pay more than something is worth because they invest more than money.

[Matt]

Just now, PeteG said:

I agree but we are talking about running costs of approx. £1.5 million per year. 2500 fans donating £600 per year every year on top of buying season tickets, merchandise etc. for me makes it a non-starter

 

Of course, I don't think we should be discussing a team operating above National level without a reasonably well-heeled benefactor. It's a choice, do you want to have a say in what happens to your club, or do you want to allow other people who aren't Latics fans to buy and sell bits of the club around you? 

[PeteG]

7 minutes ago, Matt said:

 

Of course, I don't think we should be discussing a team operating above National level without a reasonably well-heeled benefactor. It's a choice, do you want to have a say in what happens to your club, or do you want to allow other people who aren't Latics fans to buy and sell bits of the club around you? 

I want the club to be well run and competing at a level I feel we should be which is at least in the top half of league 1. If an owner came in with decent intentions and put a decent budget together, had access to the ground 7 days a week to generate funds, we could easily get out of league 2. This would encourage more fans and i don't think getting gates of 5000 is beyond being realistic. Given that being the case we could be pushing at the right end of league 1. Whether that will happen is debatable but i predict we are heading for administration before the start of next season and whilst the trust may have good intentions time is against them and us as fans generally

[Littlemoor Lad]

25 minutes ago, Dave_Og said:

 

The irony is that fans are demonstrably prepared to pay more than something is worth because they invest more than money.

That might be true of us older generation who have much more disposable incomes and have seen 40 odd years worth but just how many younger fans will follow in our footsteps, with the same passion and love for the club in order to generate future income needed to keep the club alive?

 

If the time comes to contribute to a scheme or an actual share in the club, I won't be found wanting, it goes without saying.

 

[Dave_Og]

2 minutes ago, Littlemoor Lad said:

That might be true of us older generation who have much more disposable incomes and have seen 40 odd years worth but just how many younger fans will follow in our footsteps, with the same passion and love for the club in order to generate future income needed to keep the club alive?

 

If the time comes to contribute to a scheme or an actual share in the club, I won't be found wanting, it goes without saying.

 

Likewise.  I'd contribute but not to such a degree that it would be material in the grand scheme of things

[C.O.JONES]

I have absolutely no idea why people keep banging on about fans buying into a football club, it is an absolute none starter. Football is a business and all it sells is bums on seats, a bit of merchandise and a few pies on match days. Unless you are in the premiership receiving an obnoxious amount of money from television companies, or getting parachute payments for failure, you will be running at a loss. 

Any sensible business owner has to have a reasonable profit margin to succeed, or pump millions of beer tokens they can afford to lose, into a venture that they a prepared to take a gamble on. I'm not sure our current owner falls into either category, as the latter gamble needs a sensible long term plan and get out clause. Clubs these days need very wealthy owners who like to throw millions into a deep hole for their own and I am not sure how many Oldham fans or willing purchasers there are around with pockets that deep. Discuss.

[nzlatic]

For me it depends on what revenue streams are available.  Lets say a fan body owns the club and land/ground etc.  How far off a competitive league 2 budget would you be if you added up...

 

- season ticket sales

- match day ticket sales (home and away)

- league payments

- tv payments

- food/drink profits

- hospitality profits

- non match day event profits

- rent from office/business space

- sponsorship

- merchandise

 

Assuming that a well run fan body would be able to increase some/all of those things from the level they're at now simply by running the club better and generating local interest in the club again.

[C.O.JONES]

2 minutes ago, nzlatic said:

For me it depends on what revenue streams are available.  Lets say a fan body owns the club and land/ground etc.  How far off a competitive league 2 budget would you be if you added up...

 

- season ticket sales

- match day ticket sales (home and away)

- league payments

- tv payments

- food/drink profits

- hospitality profits

- non match day event profits

- rent from office/business space

- sponsorship

- merchandise

 

Assuming that a well run fan body would be able to increase some/all of those things from the level they're at now simply by running the club better and generating local interest in the club again.

You are assuming that it would be well run, for that you need a lot of business acumen. If it didn't work, what's plan B?

[PeteG]

19 minutes ago, nzlatic said:

For me it depends on what revenue streams are available.  Lets say a fan body owns the club and land/ground etc.  How far off a competitive league 2 budget would you be if you added up...

 

- season ticket sales

- match day ticket sales (home and away)

- league payments

- tv payments

- food/drink profits

- hospitality profits

- non match day event profits

- rent from office/business space

- sponsorship

- merchandise

 

Assuming that a well run fan body would be able to increase some/all of those things from the level they're at now simply by running the club better and generating local interest in the club again.

Your absolutely correct and probably not a huge deficit, if the ground had been purchased and didn't have a mortgage over it or a lease. Let's face it if we are currently running at a deficit of between a £1 million and £1.5 million could you if you ran the club well and have the ground 7 days a week raise that additional £1 - £1.5 million? I'd say so, but you still need to find approx. £8 million to see off the existing 2 parties.

[Dave_Og]

1 hour ago, C.O.JONES said:

I have absolutely no idea why people keep banging on about fans buying into a football club, it is an absolute none starter. Football is a business and all it sells is bums on seats, a bit of merchandise and a few pies on match days. Unless you are in the premiership receiving an obnoxious amount of money from television companies, or getting parachute payments for failure, you will be running at a loss. 

Any sensible business owner has to have a reasonable profit margin to succeed, or pump millions of beer tokens they can afford to lose, into a venture that they a prepared to take a gamble on. I'm not sure our current owner falls into either category, as the latter gamble needs a sensible long term plan and get out clause. Clubs these days need very wealthy owners who like to throw millions into a deep hole for their own and I am not sure how many Oldham fans or willing purchasers there are around with pockets that deep. Discuss.

 

Exeter, Wimbledon and probably others have certainly had a better time of it than us recently even if their scope for going further probably isn't great.  Can't say I've kept up with it (frankly their sanctimonious tone annoys me!)  but I recall Wimbledon were thinking about allowing outside investment.

[Littlemoor Lad]

Enjoy it while it lasts and that goes for everything in life 

[nzlatic]

1 hour ago, C.O.JONES said:

You are assuming that it would be well run, for that you need a lot of business acumen. If it didn't work, what's plan B?

Agree - it would be a very difficult thing to achieve, doesn't mean we shouldn't aim for it or something similar though.  It's all well and good contributing to minibuses or sponsoring player socks, but there's nothing wrong with having loftier ambitions. Other clubs have done it.  If it doesn't work?... sell it as one entity.  

[nzlatic]

1 hour ago, PeteG said:

Your absolutely correct and probably not a huge deficit, if the ground had been purchased and didn't have a mortgage over it or a lease. Let's face it if we are currently running at a deficit of between a £1 million and £1.5 million could you if you ran the club well and have the ground 7 days a week raise that additional £1 - £1.5 million? I'd say so, but you still need to find approx. £8 million to see off the existing 2 parties.

That's the main issue for me - acquiring it in the first place.  It seems the 2 parties are massively overvaluing their respective assets.  But with cash in hand and a proper plan, it might be feasible to make a sale at market values? Who knows.  Got to be worth a shot anyway!

[PeteG]

14 minutes ago, nzlatic said:

That's the main issue for me - acquiring it in the first place.  It seems the 2 parties are massively overvaluing their respective assets.  But with cash in hand and a proper plan, it might be feasible to make a sale at market values? Who knows.  Got to be worth a shot anyway!

I'm fully aware of one party who enquired about buying the club last year. They were looking at Championship clubs prior to this and tbh £10 million would have been chicken feed for them. However, they were not prepared to deal with 2 parties and made it clear that Abdallah would have to purchase the ground from Brassbank and then they would buy the lot from Abdallah. They contacted the clubs solicitors but they didn't even receive a response and so took that as there was no interest in selling. They wouldn't be interested again having not had the common courtesy of receiving a reply.

[GlossopLatic]

8Even if Blitz and Abdullah had a spectacular change of heart and handed over the club the land and wrote of the directors loans to competent owners even then I don't think Oldham Athletic would be profitable.

 

Having said their can be only so long that Blitz and Abdullah want to keep on doing this. Blitz has alot of land with a football club in the middle of it. His tenant is volatile and if he kicks him out then not only does he get alot of bad publicity. Their won't be another team who will play at Boundary Park so he will be left with the only option but to bulldoze it and turn it into houses. Given the choice of that which will make him a profit but will give him alot of hassle and just selling the land and reinvesting it where he could probably make alot more for considerably less hassle then you would assume he is a relatively willing seller of the land.

 

In the meantime Abdullah Lemsagam continues to do the equivalent of punching every Oldham Athletic fan and himself in the face by running Oldham Athletic into the ground causing him alot of hassle and costing him alot of money with no sign whatsoever that it is likely to turnround. He must come to some realisation at some point that the longer he is here the worse it is going to get for him so he will have to cut his losses. If it goes under then both him and Blitz will lose alot of money as Blitz has £6million of directors loans sat on the balance sheet and Abdullah probably has a figure which is catching up.

 

At some point the reality is going to bite for both of them and they will have to compromise whether they like it or not. This won't last forever it can't do.

[Matt]

3 hours ago, PeteG said:

I want the club to be well run and competing at a level I feel we should be which is at least in the top half of league 1. If an owner came in with decent intentions and put a decent budget together...

 

I think I'm just really pessimistic about corporate or consortia ownership and assets being passed from one non-fan to another. Be careful what you wish for.