General Election - 8th June 2017

[Diego_Sideburns]

 

Some still have a taste for Austerity cheese. Others are cheesed off with austerity in all its forms.

 

 

[Diego_Sideburns]

It's the 84th minute of the match and the NME interviews Corbyn, including asking Blur or Oasis?

 

 

[View Of Golden Gate]

4 hours ago, OldHallam said:

Not arguing about the principle she looks very ill and whilst think she is obnoxious as a politician also a human. But someone had an email convo yesterday and looks an excuse to take her out of firing line as she refers to her diabetes not being an issue. (twitter via guido) The prank email she thought was from Seamus Milne and clear in content as discussing availability re participation on election night. She has been hidden along with McDonnell and Watson hiding himself. Umuna has been reckless with his mental illness link to knife crime and fits what you say makes it harder for those that are suffering. 

 

I have seen the emails, my point is the accusations about her lying were before the emails were released. Also from what I have seen it does seem she was indeed ill, not as ill as they making out. I do not agree, and I am annoyed about it, but to make accusations before evidence is unfair.

 

I agree Umuna's comments do not help at all, there are many things that make it harder for people to come forward and seek help. 

[kowenicki]

31 minutes ago, View Of Golden Gate said:

 

I have seen the emails, my point is the accusations about her lying were before the emails were released. Also from what I have seen it does seem she was indeed ill, not as ill as they making out. I do not agree, and I am annoyed about it, but to make accusations before evidence is unfair.

 

I agree Umuna's comments do not help at all, there are many things that make it harder for people to come forward and seek help. 

 

You see it as unfair. But it was blindingly obvious what was going off with Abbott. 

 

I'm inclined to actually give Umuna a bit of slack. Yes has made a mistake but he clearly didn't mean any harm by it, he's just made a bit of a pillock of himself and I'm not sure the context is clear. 

[Matt]

On 02/06/2017 at 3:34 PM, kowenicki said:

On 02/06/2017 at 3:41 PM, kowenicki said:

anyone checking that table I just posted.  is  it wrong?

 

Fullfact.org seem to think so...
 

Quote

 

 

Big meaningless numbers: that viral economy infographic.

We don’t care how you vote but we do care that you get the facts. Please don’t take scorecards like the one below at face value.
This has been circulating on social media in the last few days and many people have asked us about it.

 

 

https://fullfact.org/economy/big-meaningless-numbers-viral-economy-infographic/

[Matt]

Just got an updated email from fullfact.org - it has all of the talking points we've featured here over the last few weeks - it's worth a read...

 

Last minute factchecking before you vote! View this in your browser.

Are you ready to vote? Huge and sincere thanks to everyone who has donated, shared and otherwise supported us during the campaign. We're all pretty exhauted!  We will be back soon with a full roundup of what we achieved together. In the meantime, here's a selection of our most popular and important factchecks from the campaign.  FACTCHECK Big meaningless numbers: that viral economy infographic We don’t care how you vote but we do care that you get the facts. Please don’t take scorecards like the one below at face value. This has been circulating on social media in the last few days and many people have asked us about it.  Read more Five people worked on this factcheck and it took us 3 days to make. Factchecking takes time (and man/womanpower) and this is why we're crowdfunding for the election. It's all over at 23:59 tonight. Please donate and help get us to 100%. We're at 95% at the moment! The Manifestos Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats SNP UKIP Green FACTCHECK Labour’s Land Value Tax: will you have to sell your garden? Many people asked us about the so-called "Garden Tax". Labour has only committed to considering the idea, as have the Green and Liberal Democrat parties.Ultimately if it was adopted it would depend on how the policy was actually designed. There's no reason to assume enthusiastic gardeners would be badly hit by switching systems.  Read more FACTCHECK Naylor Review: will the Conservatives sell NHS property to developers? Many people also asked us about the Naylor Review of NHS land. Published in March 2017, it’s come to public attention more recently after Theresa May confirmed in an interview that the government supported the independent review’s recommendations. The basic message of the Naylor Review is that some NHS assets should be sold in order to improve the rest.  Read more FACTCHECK NHS viral video, factchecked We factchecked a video making numerous claims about the NHS that had gone viral with 9.8 million views on Facebook. This was part of our election work with First Draft. Read more FACTCHECK Have armed police numbers been cut? There are about 700 fewer now than in 2010. Labour's claim accurately quotes the latest published Home Office figures, but a recruitment drive and newer figures from the National Police Chiefs' Council have changed the picture. The numbers are expected to return to 2010 levels over the next few years. Read more EXPLAINER What is the “dementia tax”? It’s a name used by some to describe the Conservative’s proposals for adult social care. The party’s manifesto put forward three key proposals for England. Read more BLOG Election 2017: what the parties haven’t told voters  Full Fact factchecks what the parties do say. Often what they haven’t said matters even more. On the economy – “The shame of the two big parties’ manifestos is that neither sets out an honest set of choices.” “It is likely that the Conservatives would either have to resort to tax or borrowing increases to bail out public services under increasing pressure, or would risk presiding over a decline in the quality of some of those services, including the NHS. “Labour’s commitment to a much bigger public sector would require higher taxes that affect many of us. A bigger state than the one we have been used to is perfectly feasible as many countries have demonstrated, but Labour should not pretend that such a step-change could be funded entirely by a small minority at the very top.” — Institute for Fiscal Studies. Read more. On the NHS – “Projections by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility suggest that a real-terms funding increase of about £30 billion a year is needed in five years’ time to enable the NHS to deal with these pressures. None of the main political parties has pledged enough to cover even half of that, while the share of our national wealth spent on healthcare would fall under all of their plans.” — Health Foundation, Nuffield Trust, King’s Fund. Read more. On immigration – “The manifestos are not credible on post-Brexit immigration... Both parties argue that free movement should end after we leave the EU, but details beyond that are patchy. Delivering change on this sort of scale will take years, and voters may find themselves back at the ballot box in 2022 before any new government’s manifesto promises on immigration become a reality.” — Institute for Government. Read more. On Brexit – “The Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats’ manifestos all ignore the true potential impact of Brexit.” The academics point out how Brexit negotiations will affect the economy, health, and immigration and say: “What is striking, is that while all three parties view Brexit as a major event, the manifestos treat it largely in isolation from other aspects of policy, rather than the defining issue of the next parliament.” — UK in a Changing Europe. Read more.

[leeslover]

Surely this should be the election not to be costed really? It's between a genuinely Socialist party against a statist centrist one. It makes sense to argue about a few billion here or there between Osborne and Balls, but not here.

[kowenicki]

7 hours ago, leeslover said:

Surely this should be the election not to be costed really? It's between a genuinely Socialist party against a statist centrist one. It makes sense to argue about a few billion here or there between Osborne and Balls, but not here.

 

Thats a fair point. 

[opinions4u]

It's a struggle.  I instinctively lean centre-right.  I supported Brexit.  May was the obvious choice.

 

She has demonstrated contempt for the public by calling an election and then realising she didn't have any policies.  By criticising Labour on costings but not supplying her own.  By failing to build a bit of vision into her campaign where people could say positive things about it.  And her lack of ability to answer the most basic question has been piss poor.

 

Corbyn has been true to himself until the last few days.  A populist campaign built on consistency of a belief system that, while I consider flawed, is genuine to him.  Notwithstanding his ex struggling to hold things together he's impressed me.  Until the last few days when he's started contradicting accurately documented views that he's stated in the past around the terror situation.  Suddenly the principles sacrificed for an effort to be popular when I wonder if the chance of further swings his way was there to be had.  

 

Farron has flopped.  His "let's all vote again on Brexit" approach probably the reason.  I could go with an extra penny on tax that he proposes but for a democrat to want to back peddle on a referendum?  No, not having it.

 

Nuttall is irrelevant and UKIP is a pressure group that's got what it wanted.  See you boys.   The Greens are still a nutty party with a few sensible environmental proposals.

 

At the start of the campaign I thought 70 seat majority for the blues.  I'll stick with that.  The main thought is the number of die hard Labour voters who've said they vote for May.  It might not be something they can actually stomach when it comes to holding that pen in their hand before choosing which box to put their X in.

[UsedtobeWozzer]

1 hour ago, opinions4u said:

It's a struggle.  I instinctively lean centre-right.  I supported Brexit.  May was the obvious choice.

 

She has demonstrated contempt for the public by calling an election and then realising she didn't have any policies.  By criticising Labour on costings but not supplying her own.  By failing to build a bit of vision into her campaign where people could say positive things about it.  And her lack of ability to answer the most basic question has been piss poor.

 

Corbyn has been true to himself until the last few days.  A populist campaign built on consistency of a belief system that, while I consider flawed, is genuine to him.  Notwithstanding his ex struggling to hold things together he's impressed me.  Until the last few days when he's started contradicting accurately documented views that he's stated in the past around the terror situation.  Suddenly the principles sacrificed for an effort to be popular when I wonder if the chance of further swings his way was there to be had.  

 

Farron has flopped.  His "let's all vote again on Brexit" approach probably the reason.  I could go with an extra penny on tax that he proposes but for a democrat to want to back peddle on a referendum?  No, not having it.

 

Nuttall is irrelevant and UKIP is a pressure group that's got what it wanted.  See you boys.   The Greens are still a nutty party with a few sensible environmental proposals.

 

At the start of the campaign I thought 70 seat majority for the blues.  I'll stick with that.  The main thought is the number of die hard Labour voters who've said they vote for May.  It might not be something they can actually stomach when it comes to holding that pen in their hand before choosing which box to put their X in.

I'm back - quite a nice day yesterday Kowenicki thanks for your kind wishes ;-)

 

Sorry but any "die hard" Labour supporter even remotely considering voting for May isn't a "die hard" Labour supporter.

 

Anyway, sadly another busy day so just dropping by. I expect not to be on here tomorrow either sadly (avoiding the I told you so's) but you never know........

[leeslover]

1 hour ago, opinions4u said:

 

 

At the start of the campaign I thought 70 seat majority for the blues.  I'll stick with that.  The main thought is the number of die hard Labour voters who've said they vote for May.  It might not be something they can actually stomach when it comes to holding that pen in their hand before choosing which box to put their X in.

I think those were the ones who had the Tories at 49%, which was never happening. The question is have they all gone back to Labour, will they not vote, how many are sliding back after recent days?

[opinions4u]

28 minutes ago, UsedtobeWozzer said:

I'm back - quite a nice day yesterday Kowenicki thanks for your kind wishes ;-)

 

Sorry but any "die hard" Labour supporter even remotely considering voting for May isn't a "die hard" Labour supporter.

 

Anyway, sadly another busy day so just dropping by. I expect not to be on here tomorrow either sadly (avoiding the I told you so's) but you never know........

Using my sample of four mates, who are well into middle aged and have voted Labour in every election they've ever been allowed to vote in, it's hard to describe them as anything else.

[GlossopLatic]

21 hours ago, leeslover said:

 

For what it's worth a mate of mine who is very good at this sort of thing has just plumped for a 102 Tory majority. He got the last GE and Brexit on the nose and I think he was bang on with the Scottish ref as well

 

9-2 on sky bet for a tory majority of 100-125. Anyone having a flutter on the result?

[24hoursfromtulsehill]

14 minutes ago, GlossopLatic said:

 

9-2 on sky bet for a tory majority of 100-125. Anyone having a flutter on the result?

 

Just had one. I trust Leeslover's source.

[deyres42]

If Labour manage to keep the score down, which I think they will now, it will be job well done, especially when the full horrors of Brexit become evident.

[kowenicki]

3 minutes ago, deyres42 said:

If Labour manage to keep the score down, which I think they will now, it will be job well done, especially when the full horrors of Brexit become evident.

 

This thought process puzzles me.  If they don't create a hung parliament with this new direction then the current leadership have missed an opportunity that probably won't present itself again and so they will have failed.  They wont be there for the next election or if the current leadership hang on then you could see a split. Even if they don't split and they completely change their tune for the next election because the current leadership have perhaps retired or resigned then its going to look very odd.  Old Labour, New Labour, Corbyns Labour, whats next.... because they are all very different.

 

[kowenicki]

22 minutes ago, deyres42 said:

If Labour manage to keep the score down, which I think they will now, it will be job well done, especially when the full horrors of Brexit become evident.

 

Why does Brexit matter in this context?  Both Labour and Tory are committed to leaving.  There is no leader historically more anti EU than Mr Corbyn.  I firmly believe Brexit will be a success for what it is worth.

[deyres42]

9 minutes ago, kowenicki said:

 

Why does Brexit matter in this context?  Both Labour and Tory are committed to leaving.  There is no leader historically more anti EU than Mr Corbyn.  I firmly believe Brexit will be a success for what it is worth.

Guilty by association if you like - I think it is the shittest of shit sandwiches and by the time it is finished it will make these past seven years of austerity look like a picnic.

[leeslover]

1 hour ago, 24hoursfromtulsehill said:

 

Just had one. I trust Leeslover's source.

I got 6/1 on it last night and put a smaller on on 76-99. Also got 3 free £10 bets from which I retrieved £7 for the only 4 legged horse I managed to pick at random

[frizzell54]

1 hour ago, kowenicki said:

 

This thought process puzzles me.  If they don't create a hung parliament with this new direction then the current leadership have missed an opportunity that probably won't present itself again and so they will have failed.  They wont be there for the next election or if the current leadership hang on then you could see a split. Even if they don't split and they completely change their tune for the next election because the current leadership have perhaps retired or resigned then its going to look very odd.  Old Labour, New Labour, Corbyns Labour, whats next.... because they are all very different.

 

 

 

 

Having managed to grab the 'Labour' brand they will certainly hang on.  It's a hard left wet dream.

[Magic Mikey]

2 minutes ago, OldHallam said:

Not being rude. Genuine question why ? what do you see happening to make it so? Hear this quite a bit but without the details of the doom and gloom to inform why.

I wonder what the motivation was to call this election. The cynic in me thinks that the Tories see events on the horizon that will put them in a very poor light and they are getting another 5 years while the going is good for them.

[frizzell54]

3 minutes ago, Magic Mikey said:

I wonder what the motivation was to call this election. The cynic in me thinks that the Tories see events on the horizon that will put them in a very poor light and they are getting another 5 years while the going is good for them.

 

 

I think there may be some truth in that.  I also think it was to dilute out the true Eurosceptics and make life easier to compromise on the BREXIT deal.

[deyres42]

23 minutes ago, OldHallam said:

Not being rude. Genuine question why ? what do you see happening to make it so? Hear this quite a bit but without the details of the doom and gloom to inform why.

Well I can certainly see the pound crashing at some point so all the issues that that brings.

[kowenicki]

4 minutes ago, deyres42 said:

Well I can certainly see the pound crashing at some point so all the issues that that brings.

 

go on....

[GlossopLatic]

40 minutes ago, OldHallam said:

Not being rude. Genuine question why ? what do you see happening to make it so? Hear this quite a bit but without the details of the doom and gloom to inform why.

 

One of the top accountancy practices last summer who correctly predicted that their woukd be a cut in corporation tax and cuts in spending post Brexit anticipate that many firms directly dealing with customers in the EU will leave Britain and relocate many of their operations on the continent to be part of the single market. In fact they were advising companies to leave and set up abroad and I imagine the other major practices will be doing the same. 

 

The pound has already plummeted and growth forecasts have been downgraded once the real fun games start after the German elections it won't get any easier. We will survive it won't be a catastrophy the world won't end and we won't become some kind of neo Facist state but it will prove to be alot more hassle than its worth. 

 

 

Edited June 8, 2017 by GlossopLatic