nzlatic Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Thought I'd do a little form analysis of the teams competing for play off spots. My assumption was that this was a group of teams all trying to go up in the least impressive manner possible, dropping points all over the place, like some sort of Taskmaster task. But when I have a look at it, I think I'm wrong about that. Here is the immediate form of the teams currently 2nd to 9th. I've stopped there as there's a 5 point gap to 10th. It's the number of points scored over their last 4 games. In brackets is the points scored in the last 10 games: 2. Barnet... 7 points (16) 3. Bromley... 4 (13) 4. Solihull... 10 (17) 5. Gateshead... 10 (17) 6. Aldershot... 6 (17) 7. Oldham... 7 (20) 8. Halifax... 12 (14) 9. Altrincham... 3 (13) When you look at PPG for 4 games vs 10 games there is not a huge difference for most of the teams in that list. Everyone is relatively close except Halifax who are in a real purple patch and Altrincham who are the opposite. So it seems most teams are maintaining a fairly consistent course, mostly scoring points at a rate that over 46 games would work out as a play off finish. Next thing I looked at was whether that course was generally shit as I assumed that to be the case. But I think I'm wrong about that too. I compared to 2nd-9th in league one and league two. There is a slightly better PPG average across all those teams in league one, but league two is almost identical to our league. So the amount of points the play off contenders are picking up seems broadly in line with other leagues. My conclusion is that as we're out of practice to what play off seasons or promotion campaigns look like, we're very quick as a fanbase to assume that we are nowhere near good enough to go up. But in reality our form is good enough to get into the play offs, it's good enough in comparison to the teams around us and it's good enough compared to other leagues too. This post is nothing to do with style of play or anything like that. Just purely looking at points scored and our form on that metric compared to everyone else. It's not the time to panic, to call for the manager to be sacked or to declare the season over. The team need to get over yesterday quickly and put in a good shift on Tuesday and so do the fans. Caveat - shouldn't need to do this, but I do so will shout it loudly... I AM ABSOLUTELY NOT EXCUSING YESTERDAY'S PERFORMANCE OR SAYING IT DOESN'T MATTER. IF WE PLAY LIKE THAT IN A PLAY OFF GAME WE WILL LOSE! 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcfluff1985 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 hours ago, nzlatic said: Thought I'd do a little form analysis of the teams competing for play off spots. My assumption was that this was a group of teams all trying to go up in the least impressive manner possible, dropping points all over the place, like some sort of Taskmaster task. But when I have a look at it, I think I'm wrong about that. Here is the immediate form of the teams currently 2nd to 9th. I've stopped there as there's a 5 point gap to 10th. It's the number of points scored over their last 4 games. In brackets is the points scored in the last 10 games: 2. Barnet... 7 points (16) 3. Bromley... 4 (13) 4. Solihull... 10 (17) 5. Gateshead... 10 (17) 6. Aldershot... 6 (17) 7. Oldham... 7 (20) 8. Halifax... 12 (14) 9. Altrincham... 3 (13) When you look at PPG for 4 games vs 10 games there is not a huge difference for most of the teams in that list. Everyone is relatively close except Halifax who are in a real purple patch and Altrincham who are the opposite. So it seems most teams are maintaining a fairly consistent course, mostly scoring points at a rate that over 46 games would work out as a play off finish. Next thing I looked at was whether that course was generally shit as I assumed that to be the case. But I think I'm wrong about that too. I compared to 2nd-9th in league one and league two. There is a slightly better PPG average across all those teams in league one, but league two is almost identical to our league. So the amount of points the play off contenders are picking up seems broadly in line with other leagues. My conclusion is that as we're out of practice to what play off seasons or promotion campaigns look like, we're very quick as a fanbase to assume that we are nowhere near good enough to go up. But in reality our form is good enough to get into the play offs, it's good enough in comparison to the teams around us and it's good enough compared to other leagues too. This post is nothing to do with style of play or anything like that. Just purely looking at points scored and our form on that metric compared to everyone else. It's not the time to panic, to call for the manager to be sacked or to declare the season over. The team need to get over yesterday quickly and put in a good shift on Tuesday and so do the fans. Caveat - shouldn't need to do this, but I do so will shout it loudly... I AM ABSOLUTELY NOT EXCUSING YESTERDAY'S PERFORMANCE OR SAYING IT DOESN'T MATTER. IF WE PLAY LIKE THAT IN A PLAY OFF GAME WE WILL LOSE! Again, facts and common sense, woth a measured reaction aren't the right way to go about things on here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyB2 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 hours ago, nzlatic said: Thought I'd do a little form analysis of the teams competing for play off spots. My assumption was that this was a group of teams all trying to go up in the least impressive manner possible, dropping points all over the place, like some sort of Taskmaster task. But when I have a look at it, I think I'm wrong about that. Here is the immediate form of the teams currently 2nd to 9th. I've stopped there as there's a 5 point gap to 10th. It's the number of points scored over their last 4 games. In brackets is the points scored in the last 10 games: 2. Barnet... 7 points (16) 3. Bromley... 4 (13) 4. Solihull... 10 (17) 5. Gateshead... 10 (17) 6. Aldershot... 6 (17) 7. Oldham... 7 (20) 8. Halifax... 12 (14) 9. Altrincham... 3 (13) When you look at PPG for 4 games vs 10 games there is not a huge difference for most of the teams in that list. Everyone is relatively close except Halifax who are in a real purple patch and Altrincham who are the opposite. So it seems most teams are maintaining a fairly consistent course, mostly scoring points at a rate that over 46 games would work out as a play off finish. Next thing I looked at was whether that course was generally shit as I assumed that to be the case. But I think I'm wrong about that too. I compared to 2nd-9th in league one and league two. There is a slightly better PPG average across all those teams in league one, but league two is almost identical to our league. So the amount of points the play off contenders are picking up seems broadly in line with other leagues. My conclusion is that as we're out of practice to what play off seasons or promotion campaigns look like, we're very quick as a fanbase to assume that we are nowhere near good enough to go up. But in reality our form is good enough to get into the play offs, it's good enough in comparison to the teams around us and it's good enough compared to other leagues too. This post is nothing to do with style of play or anything like that. Just purely looking at points scored and our form on that metric compared to everyone else. It's not the time to panic, to call for the manager to be sacked or to declare the season over. The team need to get over yesterday quickly and put in a good shift on Tuesday and so do the fans. Caveat - shouldn't need to do this, but I do so will shout it loudly... I AM ABSOLUTELY NOT EXCUSING YESTERDAY'S PERFORMANCE OR SAYING IT DOESN'T MATTER. IF WE PLAY LIKE THAT IN A PLAY OFF GAME WE WILL LOSE! ‘My conclusion is that as we're out of practice to what play off seasons or promotion campaigns look like, we're very quick as a fanbase to assume that we are nowhere near good enough to go up.’ This is spot on. Been saying all season that as a fanbase we don’t really know what finishing in the playoffs looks like in terms of results, performances and consistency. People talk as if it automatically means having a storming season. The reality is that we have been more than consistent enough to finish in the playoffs thus far under Mellon and if you achieve a playoff place there will likely be lots of games where you get we’ll beaten and look underwhelming. Our results under Mellon would need to take a material dip for us to finish outside the playoffs. That may well happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzlatic Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 18 minutes ago, AndyB2 said: ‘My conclusion is that as we're out of practice to what play off seasons or promotion campaigns look like, we're very quick as a fanbase to assume that we are nowhere near good enough to go up.’ This is spot on. Been saying all season that as a fanbase we don’t really know what finishing in the playoffs looks like in terms of results, performances and consistency. People talk as if it automatically means having a storming season. The reality is that we have been more than consistent enough to finish in the playoffs thus far under Mellon and if you achieve a playoff place there will likely be lots of games where you get we’ll beaten and look underwhelming. Our results under Mellon would need to take a material dip for us to finish outside the playoffs. That may well happen. So true. We have 12 games left. We could probably win 6 and lose 6 and still make it into the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlossopLatic Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Trying to reach for a silver lining to our current home form. In the 2002-03 Season our best post Royle season so the best in the last 3 decades we had a difficult winter at home where between us beating Stockport on the 2nd of November until beating Colchester on the 8th of March we only won 1 game at home that was to Brentford on a Tuesday night a run of 1 win in 10 in all competitions. I'd say that probably cost us promotion that season it could well cost us promotion this season. But it proves that home form won't be absolutely definitive in us having a good season and if you are in the play offs you have a punchers chance of going up* *NB: That's not me defending us shitting the bed yesterday it was as frustrating as it was predictable but we shouldn't write this season off yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyB2 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 6 minutes ago, nzlatic said: So true. We have 12 games left. We could probably win 6 and lose 6 and still make it into the playoffs. 1.63 points per game so far. Equal that to the end of the season would put us on 72-73 points. 71 points secured 7th last season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Worcester Owl Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Good posts above and good analysis by @nzlatic. I still think we’ll make the play-offs and then I’m pinning my hopes on the fact that our results against teams at/near the top are generally better than against teams down at the bottom (I think - someone will correct me if that’s wrong). I’m half joking when I say that maybe we do need to finish 6th/7th and get away play-off matches as there is clearly some kind of collective psychological barrier for the team at Boundary Park. I’m even starting to wonder if we need to hire a shrink, though they seem more common in individual sports like tennis and golf. At the moment, I’d say, sticking my neck out, we will stuff up the play-offs this season and have a better chance of promotion next season, with some of the dead wood cleared out and hopefully better recruitment over the summer. I firmly believe we should stick with MM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yarddog73 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Put them in a hotel the night before an home game, they obviously can't be trusted to prepare themselves and get in the right frame of mind prior to home games. Saying that they are probably down the pub Friday nights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
singe Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 The trouble is we have just played a bunch of team looking over their shoulder at the drop. Our next few games have a number of teams teams above, or in some form. We should be picking up significant points if we are in play off form though. I fear the wheels will come off our play off push in our next 10 Eastleigh 11th won last incl Bromley Southend 16th (10th) Won last 2 Bromley 3rd (albeit no great form) Aldershot 6th only lost to other form teams Halifax 8th won last 4 on the trot Chesterfield 1st (not own the last 3!) Dag Redbridge 14th 2nd easiest of the 10 on paper AFC Fylde 19th Form has matched ours Altrincham 9th but lost last 3 Rochdale 13th but lost 4 out of last 5. Easiest of the 10 on paper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oafcmetty Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 42 minutes ago, singe said: The trouble is we have just played a bunch of team looking over their shoulder at the drop. Our next few games have a number of teams teams above, or in some form. We should be picking up significant points if we are in play off form though. But we've played better against the "better" teams, and shat our pants against some of the lesser lights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guy Branston Pickle Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 1 hour ago, singe said: The trouble is we have just played a bunch of team looking over their shoulder at the drop. Our next few games have a number of teams teams above, or in some form. We should be picking up significant points if we are in play off form though. I fear the wheels will come off our play off push in our next 10 Eastleigh 11th won last incl Bromley Southend 16th (10th) Won last 2 Bromley 3rd (albeit no great form) Aldershot 6th only lost to other form teams Halifax 8th won last 4 on the trot Chesterfield 1st (not own the last 3!) Dag Redbridge 14th 2nd easiest of the 10 on paper AFC Fylde 19th Form has matched ours Altrincham 9th but lost last 3 Rochdale 13th but lost 4 out of last 5. Easiest of the 10 on paper. We're only below one of these sides in the form table for the last ten games, and they're having a bit of a wobble For all the histrionics on here, we've lost two out of the last 10 Edited February 25 by Guy Branston Pickle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
100milesaway Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) It's easy. From now till the end of season, play our home games at Stalybridge. It's obvious that National league teams playing us at BP is their Wembley, and they raise their game accordingly. So play away when at home .. I thank you. Edited February 25 by 100milesaway 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
singe Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 hours ago, oafcmetty said: But we've played better against the "better" teams, and shat our pants against some of the lesser lights. There is that. Let's hope so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
singe Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, Guy Branston Pickle said: We're only below one of these sides in the form table for the last ten games, and they're having a bit of a wobble For all the histrionics on here, we've lost two out of the last 10 It's certainly going to get interesting. Business end of the season now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simplythemostimportantkick Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Who doesn’t think that if Mellon would have been in from the beginning of the season, that we would deffo finish second ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GKing521 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 We're going to miss out on them, aren't we? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deyres42 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 On 2/29/2024 at 7:48 PM, simplythemostimportantkick said: Who doesn’t think that if Mellon would have been in from the beginning of the season, that we would deffo finish second ? Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BradKnowles1 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 One win 6 we have fallen apart at the wrong time. Need 5 wins in 8. Stick a fork in us because we are cooked 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yarddog73 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 28 minutes ago, BradKnowles1 said: One win 6 we have fallen apart at the wrong time. Need 5 wins in 8. Stick a fork in us because we are cooked Yes we've bottled it, there are players in that squad I'd be happy if I never seen in an Oldham shirt again, without wanting to sound all BP I'd rather blood some kids now and see where that takes us because this showers going nowhere. You can't make players care and this bunch just don't give a fuck, pampered, overpayed and lacking any real character. It's a toxic combination that will be hard to shift. Nobody leading on that pitch today and that's with some seasoned pros, half gave up after an hour which is unforgivable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightDN123 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 25 minutes ago, yarddog73 said: Yes we've bottled it, there are players in that squad I'd be happy if I never seen in an Oldham shirt again, without wanting to sound all BP I'd rather blood some kids now and see where that takes us because this showers going nowhere. You can't make players care and this bunch just don't give a fuck, pampered, overpayed and lacking any real character. It's a toxic combination that will be hard to shift. Nobody leading on that pitch today and that's with some seasoned pros, half gave up after an hour which is unforgivable. Hogan visibly gave up today. Poor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BP1960 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 minute ago, LightDN123 said: Hogan visibly gave up today. Poor. I noticed that and Norwood didn't compete at all. It's unbelievable from squad of about 30 players hardly any can pass a ball to each other or run at opponents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BradKnowles1 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 6 minutes ago, BP1960 said: I noticed that and Norwood didn't compete at all. It's unbelievable from squad of about 30 players hardly any can pass a ball to each other or run at opponents. Got sent some messages about Norwood says he hates it here and was saying I was playing in front of 18k last year In front of officials… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yarddog73 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 11 minutes ago, BradKnowles1 said: Got sent some messages about Norwood says he hates it here and was saying I was playing in front of 18k last year In front of officials… You'd never notice it in him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightDN123 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 41 minutes ago, BradKnowles1 said: Got sent some messages about Norwood says he hates it here and was saying I was playing in front of 18k last year In front of officials… Welcome to OAFC, the home of ruining good players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deyres42 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 42 minutes ago, BradKnowles1 said: Got sent some messages about Norwood says he hates it here and was saying I was playing in front of 18k last year In front of officials… Sounds like just the kind of character you need around the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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