Matt Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 20 hours ago, ChaddySmoker said: they are all lefties on twitter Hardly. 17 hours ago, kowenicki said: The left love a good derogatory photo It's not really an exclusive trait of the left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 20 hours ago, blueatheart said: Not really the same considering we would revert to WTO rules at worst. Which involves crippling tariffs on agricultural imports, I believe. Expect price hikes in your shopping basket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leeslover Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 28 minutes ago, rummytheowl said: Which involves crippling tariffs on agricultural imports, I believe. Expect price hikes in your shopping basket. Nope - WTO rules set a maximum level of tariffs, not a an obligatory level set to impose poverty on the Third World. You're confusing it with the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, leeslover said: Nope - WTO rules set a maximum level of tariffs, not a an obligatory level set to impose poverty on the Third World. You're confusing it with the EU. Ah, so we will still enjoy similar tariffs that we're having now and not the 40, 50, 60 pc on milk and meat and so-on? Do we have to be labelled as an MFN? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzell54 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Looking at the polls this morning it looks as though Corbyn and his Marxist/Trot mates will now remain firmly in control of the 'Labour' brand, with its inbuilt tribal vote (thanks to the weak and feeble Miliband, Beckett and co). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_lead Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 3 hours ago, GlossopLatic said: Latest Yougov poll now points to a hung parliament with the Tories 16 seats short of an overall majority. Polls seem to be all over the place at the moment even with a lot of work having been done to correct them getting 2015 wrong when the 'shy Tories' got all the flack. It wasn't really shy tories in 2015. There were two problems: firstly, pollsters oversampled the politically interested, and the politically interested holding all other factors constant tend to be more likely to vote Labour; secondly, especially amongst younger people there was a tendency for Labour voters to over-exaggerate their likelihood to vote ("Lazy Labour"). There wasn't some mass of Conservative voters hiding in DK/Refuse to Say, like there was in 1992. The big disparity between pollsters right now is coming down to turnout models - their unweighted samples look about the same. When you want to figure out how likely to vote someone is, you have two pieces of information: how likely they say they are, and how likely their demographic is in general. For example, a young person who says they're 100% likely to vote is probably only 70% likely to vote, an older person who says they're 80% likely to vote might be 80% likely to vote. As a pollster, you have to balance between the information this person gives you and how likely it is they're correctly estimating their likelihood to vote. Models which take people more on their word are showing narrow Conservative leads of about 7 points. Models which don't are leaning to wider leads of 10 points. This is because Corbyn is getting frankly unprecedented certain to vote figures among younger people - young person's turnout would be the highest it has been in decades if people are self-reporting accurately. The question is whether you believe that picture. History says in the end up they'll not turn out. A hung Parliament would be hilarious and be the last we'd see of May. Unfortunately I can't see anything other than an increased majority. If any of you remain uncertain I urge you to read the Tory Manifesto, it is a sufficiently vague mandate to introduce all sorts of painful policies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueatheart Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 (edited) The polls are all over the show. 8.8% average lead for the Tories since the bombing. edit: and just for some more perspective, the Tories polled 38% in the general election in 2015, they are now averaging over 44%. Edited May 31, 2017 by blueatheart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leeslover Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 2 hours ago, rummytheowl said: Ah, so we will still enjoy similar tariffs that we're having now and not the 40, 50, 60 pc on milk and meat and so-on? Do we have to be labelled as an MFN? We don't have to have any tariffs at all on imports, we can food from wherever it's cheap and good. Also we'll be able to buy processed items whereas the EU often only allows raw materials Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24hoursfromtulsehill Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 5 hours ago, GlossopLatic said: Latest Yougov poll now points to a hung parliament with the Tories 16 seats short of an overall majority. Yougov again. Interesting. They'll still be in business even if they're guilty of massive inaccuracy...even nefarious inaccuracy. I genuinely don't know. In the past few years, the polls have been inaccurate, sometimes wildly inaccurate, in democracies all over the world. This might not be because the pollsters' methodologies are failing to keep up with modern technology and data science or any of that crap. It might just be that the polls are inaccurate because of...the volatility of voter behaviour. Bastard voters...getting in the way of accurate and reliable forecasts. I kind of wish I knew more about it...or at least enough to strike up a lucrative relationship with Ladbrokes. My money would be on a Tory majority of <~50, which just isn't enough for May to achieve the central aim of nullifying the Brexit maniacs within and without parliament. Majority of <50 and she's gone before the year's out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldhamSheridan Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 I think the problem is that the companies are now told to provide a result, and therefore a methodology to sell a newspaper. So you can do this by not weighting/weighting heavily on old folk, to get the result desired. You would imagine that the Tories had an accurate one done before jumping in. And you can also take it as read that the result won't really change from that moment to the election. So, fill your boots by piling it on a Tory landslide. Disclaimer: This could be bollocks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crusoe Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 3 hours ago, joe_lead said: Polls seem to be all over the place at the moment even with a lot of work having been done to correct them getting 2015 wrong when the 'shy Tories' got all the flack. It wasn't really shy tories in 2015. There were two problems: firstly, pollsters oversampled the politically interested, and the politically interested holding all other factors constant tend to be more likely to vote Labour; secondly, especially amongst younger people there was a tendency for Labour voters to over-exaggerate their likelihood to vote ("Lazy Labour"). There wasn't some mass of Conservative voters hiding in DK/Refuse to Say, like there was in 1992. (snip) This is a very interesting post. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueatheart Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 What is worse? A Tory government or A Labour government propped up by the SNP? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevie_J Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, blueatheart said: What is worse? A Tory government or A Labour government propped up by the SNP? A Tory government, no contest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlossopLatic Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, blueatheart said: What is worse? A Tory government or A Labour government propped up by the SNP? Pretty shit choice isn't it? Personally I think the right wing press will crank it up next week and we will see a tory majority government not much bigger than the current one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevie_J Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, GlossopLatic said: Pretty shit choice isn't it? Personally I think the right wing press will crank it up next week and we will see a tory majority government not much bigger than the current one. That's pretty much what I expect too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowenicki Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 35 minutes ago, Stevie_J said: A Tory government, no contest. I doubt many agree with you there. Corbyn and SNP 'coalition' would ruin this country and the financial markets would go into free fall immediately. So if you do have a private pension then get ready to lose a chunk of it... then again you might have a ridiculously generous DB scheme through a public organisation and won't give a shit about the rest of us. Those poor poor public workers with their awful pensions... utterly deluded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevie_J Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 21 minutes ago, kowenicki said: I doubt many agree with you there. Corbyn and SNP 'coalition' would ruin this country and the financial markets would go into free fall immediately. So if you do have a private pension then get ready to lose a chunk of it... then again you might have a ridiculously generous DB scheme through a public organisation and won't give a shit about the rest of us. Those poor poor public workers with their awful pensions... utterly deluded. Aye, because people who really care about other people vote Tory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueatheart Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Stevie_J said: Aye, because people who really care about other people vote Tory. Caring about other people can only stretch so far. Freeloaders have for far too long taken the piss out of the working public, hence the Tories actually cracking down on it. Whether that has been approached correctly or not is up for contention as there have been some horrific cases in the press. Work hard, get the reward. Economically it is quite simple for me, labour = high taxes, tories = low taxes. Looks like the Tories look after the low paid for me. (I'm not going into sky tv, fags and alcohol again). Edited May 31, 2017 by blueatheart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowenicki Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, blueatheart said: Caring about other people can only stretch so far. Freeloaders have for far too long taken the piss out of the working public, hence the Tories actually cracking down on it. Whether that has been approached correctly or not is up for contention as there have been some horrific cases in the press. Work hard, get the reward. Economically it is quite simple for me, labour = high taxes, tories = low taxes. Looks like the Tories look after the low paid for me. (I'm not going into sky tv, fags and alcohol again). take your accurate facts and get the hell out of here,. Tories are satan and want to eat babies and murder the poor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowenicki Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 30 minutes ago, Stevie_J said: Aye, because people who really care about other people vote Tory. Excuse me? I'd have to wonder what industry you are in if you think Corbyn plus the SNP is a good financial and economic decision. Care to share? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magister Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 New Kantar poll just published. Tony lead up to 10 from their figure of 8 in their last poll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChaddySmoker Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 25 minutes ago, Magister said: New Kantar poll just published. Tony lead up to 10 from their figure of 8 in their last poll Oh thats OK then, even with a shit scared leader to negotiate Brexit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevie_J Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 1 hour ago, blueatheart said: Caring about other people can only stretch so far. Freeloaders have for far too long taken the piss out of the working public, hence the Tories actually cracking down on it. Whether that has been approached correctly or not is up for contention as there have been some horrific cases in the press. Work hard, get the reward. Economically it is quite simple for me, labour = high taxes, tories = low taxes. Looks like the Tories look after the low paid for me. (I'm not going into sky tv, fags and alcohol again). Account for inflation and the two aren't all that different. Also, this doesn't account for other benefits such as tax credits. The IFS recently produced a report which suggested the growth in living standards is at its lowest in 60 years and that the average household will be 20% worse off by 2021. We have a shameful number of children living in poverty in the UK with expectations being that this increase significantly over the next few years. I'm struggling to see that the poorest in our society are being looked after by the Tories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowenicki Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Stevie_J said: Account for inflation and the two aren't all that different. Also, this doesn't account for other benefits such as tax credits. The IFS recently produced a report which suggested the growth in living standards is at its lowest in 60 years and that the average household will be 20% worse off by 2021. We have a shameful number of children living in poverty in the UK with expectations being that this increase significantly over the next few years. I'm struggling to see that the poorest in our society are being looked after by the Tories. "Its not very different after inflation". It's more by about £1000 per annum after inflation. So it's more under a conservative government than a labour government whatever you factor in or attempt to spin. Do you know how "children in poverty is calculated"? It's a loaded calculation. It's not an absolute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcfluff1985 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Who are these children living below the poverty line and why are they below it? Lazy parents? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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