Crowds approved to return in full!

[Matt]

6 hours ago, rudemedic said:

already fatigued NHS staff

 

I concur, they are on their knees. I'll also add that the occurances and level of abuse towards ward staff has gone through the roof. Source: my wife.

[Pidge]

7 hours ago, rudemedic said:

Re The vaccine, there are a number of issues. 

Firstly any vaccines maximum effectiveness is dictated by the % of the population that have had the full dose. If not enough of the population have had the vaccine then lots of people who have had the full dose will get COVID-19. When Bolton had a lot of COVID-19 there were some people dying who had both doses. I've seen a case of a disease in someone who had their full course of vaccines because not enough people had their vaccine. That vaccine is more effective than COVID-19's vaccines. Thanks to idiots and conspiracy theorists the vaccine uptake for COVID-19 vaccines is poor even if there is availability. 

 

Secondly, any vaccine doesn't offer its full protection straight away the standard rule of thumb was 4 weeks but there's good evidence for 2 weeks for the COVID-19 vaccines. 

 

Thirdly no-one knows how long the immunity gained from the vaccine lasts, no one will know for a number of years (they can't). Anyone eligible for the flu vaccine for health reasons is getting a booster of COVID-19 vaccine for that exact reason. 

 

Fourthly the number of cases in the country is having a serious effect on the NHS. Fortunately this effect is not because of the numbers of people seriously ill or worse in hospital but the staff. No organisation can run without staff and already fatigued NHS staff are having to isolate due to close contact with COVID-19 or have the disease. They may even be asymptomatic, so would normally be going into work but can't. Lots of hospitals around the country are still on high alert, and it's getting worse. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson is forced to do a u-turn on opening up on the 19th in some parts of the country. 

 

Finally because people doubled jabbed are still getting the virus and have symptoms that increases the risk of there being a mutation which the vaccine offers little or no protection against. That could be apocalyptic chaos. 

Some good points, but it may be useful for the experts to explain the herd immunity target for the delta variant.  

As you say, if the vaccinated % is not high enough, it can still spread and continued to increase numbers of new cases per day. Some of the potential targets for the virus are the 10% of the fully vaccinated (ie had 2 doses) who can still catch it ( because in them the vaccine didn’t work so well).

 

I remember an expert saying the target for the original virus was 67% of the total population ( using the effectiveness figures from the Pfizer vacc).  Since then, the new variants, first “Kent” and now “delta”, have been more easily transmitted, 40%+ then another 40% + for the delta over the Kent. This would have to push the target to over 70% of the total population.

 

At present we are only at ? about 54% vaccinated. So well short. (We have to talk about herd immunity because if we have no restrictions from 19th July, the vaccine would be the only restriction on the virus).  You can add to the 54% vaccinated an unknown percent of people with natural immunity from already having had the virus.

 

letting the virus run at the moment is a big gamble. It assumes that the numbers of people who become ill enough to be admitted to hospital and the number of those who die, will be low enough to be acceptable.  I wonder what number we would all accept.

[TheBigDog]

7 hours ago, rudemedic said:

already fatigued NHS staff...

 

14 minutes ago, Matt said:

I concur, they are on their knees. I'll also add that the occurances and level of abuse towards ward staff has gone through the roof. Source: my wife.

 

There can be no doubting that staff shortages due to having to self-isolate/contracting Covid does impact the ability of the NHS to deal with admissions. And ANY abuse of hospital staff is abhorrent.

 

And yet the other side of the coin is that the numbers of those testing positive for Covid who are admitted to hospital are nowhere near what they were at the height of the infection.

Furthermore the profile of those being admitted to hospital is changing. By and large they are younger and do not have as many underlying health issues.

 

I have a long-standing friend who is in a very senior position at one of my local hospitals. He tells me that the hospital is coping well.

 

I am in no way underplaying how serious the continuing impact of Covid is on our health workers, but the real issue is that government need to rethink how they protect our frontline hospital staff going forward. 

 

It is a gamble sticking to the 19 July date and the whole issue of how Track and Trace operates does need to be revamped. But I think it has to happen.

 

 

[Dave_Og]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

 

I concur, they are on their knees. I'll also add that the occurances and level of abuse towards ward staff has gone through the roof. Source: my wife.

Yep, the fatuous weekly round of applause which my partner hated has long gone 

[C.O.JONES]

1 hour ago, Pidge said:

Some good points, but it may be useful for the experts to explain the herd immunity target for the delta variant.  

As you say, if the vaccinated % is not high enough, it can still spread and continued to increase numbers of new cases per day. Some of the potential targets for the virus are the 10% of the fully vaccinated (ie had 2 doses) who can still catch it ( because in them the vaccine didn’t work so well).

 

I remember an expert saying the target for the original virus was 67% of the total population ( using the effectiveness figures from the Pfizer vacc).  Since then, the new variants, first “Kent” and now “delta”, have been more easily transmitted, 40%+ then another 40% + for the delta over the Kent. This would have to push the target to over 70% of the total population.

 

At present we are only at ? about 54% vaccinated. So well short. (We have to talk about herd immunity because if we have no restrictions from 19th July, the vaccine would be the only restriction on the virus).  You can add to the 54% vaccinated an unknown percent of people with natural immunity from already having had the virus.

 

letting the virus run at the moment is a big gamble. It assumes that the numbers of people who become ill enough to be admitted to hospital and the number of those who die, will be low enough to be acceptable.  I wonder what number we would all accept.

Some good points well made but on your last point, there are 20,000+ die each year in this country from seasonal flu and no one complains or sets a number which they would call acceptable either.  

[Chaddyexile84]

23 minutes ago, C.O.JONES said:

Some good points well made but on your last point, there are 20,000+ die each year in this country from seasonal flu and no one complains or sets a number which they would call acceptable either.  

Quite and of many other things too - we are mortal and all must die sometime 

 

My grans cancer could have been caught earlier had she not had appointment after appointment cancelled and she still hasn’t been told if her surgery was successful quite some time after it was done 

 

A good friend spent 12 months trying to get a doctors appointment for all the ailments he was suffering and only when he had to call an ambulance to his home and was admitted to hospital did he find out he had small cell lung cancer and at time of writing is hoping he’s got 10 months left.

 

Life has to move on 

[Hands on]

The time has come to treat Covid as what it is i.e. just another virus that makes us unwell and will result in death for some.  In other words a respiratory illness like flu and the common cold both of which take the lives of people every year and contributed to the annual death total of 600,000.

I'm at risk from flu so I have an annual vaccination which is less effective than the Covid double vaccination but in the past we didn't wear masks we accepted the risk.  I've had Covid and both jabs so let me behave towards Covid as I do towards flu.

Getting back to 'normal' has to mean stopping all the testing and isolation.  Let people take responsibility for themselves.  Wear a mask if you want to.  Stay locked away if you want to.  Have your groceries delivered.  Don't go to the pub when it is standing room only.  Make choices but be allowed to live your life again.

I want to go and watch Oldham again, mainly at home but also away, and I don't ever want to wear a bloody useless mask/face covering again.

To be able to make the choice is all I ask.

[TheBigDog]

40 minutes ago, Hands on said:

Getting back to 'normal' has to mean stopping all the testing and isolation.

 

I believe that testing should continue if you show symptoms. And if you test positive then you should self-isolate. That is just common sense.

 

Getting back to some sort of ‘normal’ is paramount. And that should include an overhaul (or even scrapping) the Track & Trace app.

 

I was pinged on Friday and told to self-isolate for 5 days. This, I believe, was due to someone testing positive on the Thursday and T&T then tracking forward all proximity contacts from 5 days prior to the reported positive test. That would have placed me in a bar in Knutsford on the previous Saturday. Incidentally (and unusually) none of the three others I was with were contacted. 

I have no symptoms and have done a lateral flow test yesterday and today  - both negative. 

 

I will follow protocols but it does mean I’ll be home with the missus watching Engerland tomorrow not quite what I did have planned...

[Matt]

4 hours ago, TheBigDog said:

I have a long-standing friend who is in a very senior position at one of my local hospitals. He tells me that the hospital is coping well.

 

Unfortunately, at the hospital I have some experience of at least, the reports that come from the wards to middle-management, and the reports from middle to senior management don't always correspond. Source: my wife.

[rudemedic]

3 hours ago, C.O.JONES said:

Some good points well made but on your last point, there are 20,000+ die each year in this country from seasonal flu and no one complains or sets a number which they would call acceptable either.  

No they don't. 20,000 is 5x the number of deaths from flu in 2018/19, (3,966). There were some spells of 4 days in the last 15 months where more people were dying with COVID-19 than a whole 12 months of flu. 

 

Since 2015/16 only 1 year, 2017/18, has had more than 20,000 deaths from flu. 

 

Deaths from flu is a bit of a misnomer too, the virus testing for flu is no where near the levels of virus testing for COVID-19. A death from flu is often based on clinical features of the right sort of infection. Some of those deaths from flu will have actually been deaths from a coronavirus, or other non influenza virus. 

 

People did complain about the number of deaths from flu in 2017/18 but the complaints were not as widespread. Most of the NHS was on high alert at some point due to the flu in 2017/18 too. 

 

Your general point about living with COVID-19 is a reasonable one though. Eventually the country should start living with the virus but doing that may mean mask-wearing, not going into work if you feel under the weather (unlike previously), that should mean a well over due rise in sick pay, not going to social activities if you don't feel well etc. Oh and getting a vaccine when you can. 

 

The numbers of infections currently don't make sense for further reduction in preventative measures. Johnson appears to be making the same mistake he made 12 months ago around opening up to support the economy. Funny how the countries with the strictest restrictions over COVID-19 have had in general the best economic growth since February 2019 though. 

[True Tic]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

 

Unfortunately, at the hospital I have some experience of at least, the reports that come from the wards to middle-management, and the reports from middle to senior management don't always correspond. Source: my wife.

Its a strange one this, because i have several friends who work in different departments, all nurses. Everyone of them has said its busy, but no busier that its ever really been in a general sense. I had to go into hospital for a procedure myself and the staff i spoke to there said the same. Im not saying this is conclusive proof that all this has been overplayed, but it strikes me as strange and contradictary almost to what we would see day after day on MSM. Reporter, stood outside A&E, Ambulances in the background etc, talking about "cases" and the service being overwhelmed.

Dont know what to think these days

[C.O.JONES]

58 minutes ago, rudemedic said:

No they don't. 20,000 is 5x the number of deaths from flu in 2018/19, (3,966). There were some spells of 4 days in the last 15 months where more people were dying with COVID-19 than a whole 12 months of flu. 

 

Since 2015/16 only 1 year, 2017/18, has had more than 20,000 deaths from flu. 

 

Deaths from flu is a bit of a misnomer too, the virus testing for flu is no where near the levels of virus testing for COVID-19. A death from flu is often based on clinical features of the right sort of infection. Some of those deaths from flu will have actually been deaths from a coronavirus, or other non influenza virus. 

 

People did complain about the number of deaths from flu in 2017/18 but the complaints were not as widespread. Most of the NHS was on high alert at some point due to the flu in 2017/18 too. 

 

Your general point about living with COVID-19 is a reasonable one though. Eventually the country should start living with the virus but doing that may mean mask-wearing, not going into work if you feel under the weather (unlike previously), that should mean a well over due rise in sick pay, not going to social activities if you don't feel well etc. Oh and getting a vaccine when you can. 

 

The numbers of infections currently don't make sense for further reduction in preventative measures. Johnson appears to be making the same mistake he made 12 months ago around opening up to support the economy. Funny how the countries with the strictest restrictions over COVID-19 have had in general the best economic growth since February 2019 though. 

A number of points very well made and the number of deaths from Covid is also a misnomer. However, figures from the O.N.S. reveal that in England and Wales alone in 2018 there were 29,451 deaths and in 2019 there were 26,342 deaths from influenza and pneumonia. The government quotes people who have died having tested positive WITH Covid within 28 days, which also includes those who could have been hit by a bus. If they quoted figures of those who had died FROM Covid the numbers would be vastly reduced. I'm not trying to make light of a very serious situation but statistics are very easily manipulated in any direction people choose to use them.

[Dave_Og]

37 minutes ago, C.O.JONES said:

A number of points very well made and the number of deaths from Covid is also a misnomer. However, figures from the O.N.S. reveal that in England and Wales alone in 2018 there were 29,451 deaths and in 2019 there were 26,342 deaths from influenza and pneumonia. The government quotes people who have died having tested positive WITH Covid within 28 days, which also includes those who could have been hit by a bus. If they quoted figures of those who had died FROM Covid the numbers would be vastly reduced. I'm not trying to make light of a very serious situation but statistics are very easily manipulated in any direction people choose to use them.

There is no possibility of there ever being a definitive number so the 28 day thing is as good as any other measure as long as its consistent 

[C.O.JONES]

15 minutes ago, Dave_Og said:

There is no possibility of there ever being a definitive number so the 28 day thing is as good as any other measure as long as its consistent 

That's the point I'm trying to make, there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

[Gaz_Oafc]

My department liaises with every department within the Pennine Acute/NCA...

 

General consensus is, we're all fucking shattered...

 

The next NHS 'crisis' might not necessarily be a 3rd/4th/5th wave of the pandemic, but a huge number of staff off sick with stress/exhaustion.

 

The hospital's themselves may appear quieter than normal at the moment, especially as there are a smaller number of Covid patients currently (although it's rising daily), but many routine appointments/referrals/procedures haven't been taking place. When the 'catch up' starts to happen, along with the annual winter pressures on top of Covid, Then the already exhausted workforce is going to sink.

 

The last chat I had with our emergency planning lead, said the talk amongst his 'circles' was that we wouldn't ever see the return to normal, but the thoughts were that we we're looking at 2025/2026 before we get to a point where life returns to a new normal and Covid-19 was just another 'bug'.

[mcfluff1985]

Average age of death from COVID is about 83. Average life expectancy in the UK is 81. Crack on 

[al_bro]

9 hours ago, Pidge said:

Some good points, but it may be useful for the experts to explain the herd immunity target for the delta variant.  

As you say, if the vaccinated % is not high enough, it can still spread and continued to increase numbers of new cases per day. Some of the potential targets for the virus are the 10% of the fully vaccinated (ie had 2 doses) who can still catch it ( because in them the vaccine didn’t work so well).

 

I remember an expert saying the target for the original virus was 67% of the total population ( using the effectiveness figures from the Pfizer vacc).  Since then, the new variants, first “Kent” and now “delta”, have been more easily transmitted, 40%+ then another 40% + for the delta over the Kent. This would have to push the target to over 70% of the total population.

 

At present we are only at ? about 54% vaccinated. So well short. (We have to talk about herd immunity because if we have no restrictions from 19th July, the vaccine would be the only restriction on the virus).  You can add to the 54% vaccinated an unknown percent of people with natural immunity from already having had the virus.

 

letting the virus run at the moment is a big gamble. It assumes that the numbers of people who become ill enough to be admitted to hospital and the number of those who die, will be low enough to be acceptable.  I wonder what number we would all accept.

The total double vaccinated is 34,541,129 which is 65.6% of the adult population. Add to that the young people who have had Covid (I guess quite a lot don't know they've had it) and it's possible that around 80% are now immune. The effectiveness of the vaccine is somewhere between 90% and 96%. Say it's 90% then there are still 3,454,113 people who have had both jabs and will still get Covid. Some of those will unfortunately die. Hospital admissions are now rising faster, as are deaths. I suspect that by the end of summer we could have over 90% of adults immune.

 

One major problem I see, that hasn't been mentioned at all by experts, is that this virus may well learn how to beat the vaccines when it infects double vaccinated people, or most likely people single vaccinated all around the world. We will then be back at square one.

[Pidge]

18 minutes ago, al_bro said:

The total double vaccinated is 34,541,129 which is 65.6% of the adult population. Add to that the young people who have had Covid (I guess quite a lot don't know they've had it) and it's possible that around 80% are now immune. The effectiveness of the vaccine is somewhere between 90% and 96%. Say it's 90% then there are still 3,454,113 people who have had both jabs and will still get Covid. Some of those will unfortunately die. Hospital admissions are now rising faster, as are deaths. I suspect that by the end of summer we could have over 90% of adults immune.

 

One major problem I see, that hasn't been mentioned at all by experts, is that this virus may well learn how to beat the vaccines when it infects double vaccinated people, or most likely people single vaccinated all around the world. We will then be back at square one.

Your last point is the most worrying.  A vaccine dodging variant is unlikely to develop in countries with low levels of vaccination.  If one does develop, it is most likely to develop in a country like our with large numbers of new cases and a high percentage of population vaccinated.

[Matt]

4 hours ago, True Tic said:

Dont know what to think these days

 

I can only give you first hand source from a major ward in a North West hospital, they are tanking - and I know she wouldn't mind me saying this, but she is personally on referral to OH with stress and she isn't the only one. The ramp-up in abuse and threats that she has had to endure over the last 6-12 months is astonishing. I've never heard anything like it, and she's been working on this ward for about 15 years, possibly more.

 

Cunts don't deserve the NHS.

[Bobledgersheart]

It's beyond belief that NHS employees get any abuse whatsoever but I suppose it's a by-product of the 80's "cash is king" society when lots of people became more greedy and less respectful and considerate to their public servants.

 

 

[Guest Freddie]

The maths from Al bro is nonsense . Just because effectiveness is 90% doesn’t mean the other 10% get COVID !! Not everyone gets COVID whether they are vaccinated or not so the point being made is a giant exaggeration of reality .

[rudemedic]

11 hours ago, C.O.JONES said:

A number of points very well made and the number of deaths from Covid is also a misnomer. However, figures from the O.N.S. reveal that in England and Wales alone in 2018 there were 29,451 deaths and in 2019 there were 26,342 deaths from influenza and pneumonia. The government quotes people who have died having tested positive WITH Covid within 28 days, which also includes those who could have been hit by a bus. If they quoted figures of those who had died FROM Covid the numbers would be vastly reduced. I'm not trying to make light of a very serious situation but statistics are very easily manipulated in any direction people choose to use them.

If someone gets hit by a bus who just happened to have a positive COVID-19 test less than 28 days ago. They will go down as having died from trauma (being hit by a bus) on their death certificate. Some officious junior doctor may mention COVID-19 but I bet most won't, junior doctors tend to have a bit of common sense. 

 

The only way COVID-19 gets mentioned in that scenario is if they were hit by a bus outside the hospital after leaving the hospital having been admitted for COVID-19. 

 

People dying of stuff other than COVID-19 will get COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate if it is remotely relevant though. 

 

PS there are a multitude of causes for pneumonia, coronavirus being one. The number of deaths from influenza from the ONS are 1598 (2018) and 1223 (2019). Those were daily totals for deaths with COVID-19 at the height of the pandemic. 

 

Let me reiterate COVID-19 is not just a bad case of flu, it is not comparable with the flu. 

[Dave_Og]

Watching RL from Australia. Back behind closed doors and the whole league is moving to a bubble in Queensland. 

 

Matter of time 

[BP1960]

15 hours ago, Gaz_Oafc said:

My department liaises with every department within the Pennine Acute/NCA...

 

General consensus is, we're all fucking shattered...

 

The next NHS 'crisis' might not necessarily be a 3rd/4th/5th wave of the pandemic, but a huge number of staff off sick with stress/exhaustion.

 

The hospital's themselves may appear quieter than normal at the moment, especially as there are a smaller number of Covid patients currently (although it's rising daily), but many routine appointments/referrals/procedures haven't been taking place. When the 'catch up' starts to happen, along with the annual winter pressures on top of Covid, Then the already exhausted workforce is going to sink.

 

The last chat I had with our emergency planning lead, said the talk amongst his 'circles' was that we wouldn't ever see the return to normal, but the thoughts were that we we're looking at 2025/2026 before we get to a point where life returns to a new normal and Covid-19 was just another 'bug'.

 

2025/2026 before we get back to the norm of 4 hour A&E waiting times?

[Londonboy]

15 hours ago, mcfluff1985 said:

Average age of death from COVID is about 83. Average life expectancy in the UK is 81. Crack on 

I wasn't aware of this. Is this true???